Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#125 Louisville 53 vs.
#126 Miami - FL -7
Saturday, November 9, 2019 at 3:30pm EST
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#125 University of Louisville
#126 University of Miami
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The Miami Florida Hurricanes will host the Louisville Cardinals in an ACC showdown Saturday afternoon from Hard Rock Stadium. The Cardinals were off last week after recording a big 28-21 home win against Virginia in week nine. The Hurricanes enter this one with confidence after securing a 27-10 road win at Florida State in their latest action. This clash is the first meeting since the 2014 season in a game Louisville won 31-13.

Louisville Defeats Virginia, Climbs to 3rd in ACC Atlantic

The Louisville Cardinals can clinch bowl eligibility with a victory in this one. Louisville is playing well, winning three out of their last four games which include a 28-21 home victory over Virginia in a matchup that had the Cardinals labeled as 4.5 point dogs. They have been running the ball a ton and their QB’s Micale Cunningham and Evan Conley aren't posting big numbers as a result. Cunningham has seen more action recently and he has tallied 1009 passing yards with an 8:2 TD to INT ratio accompanied with over 300 rushing yards, while Conely has 473 passing yards.

The Cardinals are having success on the ground led by the talented Javian Hawkins. The freshman back has rushed for over 100 yards in three out of his last four games, and he is up to 887 rushing yards with sophomore Hassan Hall coming in behind him with 316 rushing yards.

Tutu Atwell is the Cardinals' top receiver. The sophomore is consistently producing, and he has accrued 668 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. The Cardinals offense was able to solve a good Virginia defense in their latest game, and they are up against another outstanding defense in this one.

The Louisville defense is coming off their best performance in ACC play after holding the Cavaliers to 21 points. Overall their defense has been an area of concern. They rank 106th against the pass and 85th against the run. The Cardinals are scoring an average of 32.8 points, placing them 48th in the FBS. They are conceding an average of 31.9 points, pegging them down at 99th overall. Louisville owns a 2-1 road record.

Miami Florida's Defense Shines in Second Straight Win

The Miami Florida Hurricanes have momentum on their side. They open ACC play with two losses but have lifted their ACC record to 3-3 on the season thanks to a two-game winning streak. Miami resumed their outstanding defensive play in a 27-10 road win against Florida State last week. Jarren Williams is coming off a season-high 313 passing yards. The freshman QB hasn’t started every game this season, but he will start considering his stellar effort last week. Williams has a ton of talent, and he is steadily improving. Williams has tallied 1449 passing yards with a 10:3 TD to INT ratio on the season.

The Hurricanes have a poor rushing offense that is down at 120th in the FBS. DeeJay Dallas has accrued a team-best 547 rushing yards, while Cam’Ron Harris has 337 yards. Miami’s top threat in the air Brevin Jordan exited last week’s game with a foot injury and is questionable. The sophomore tight end has collected 495 receiving yards. Miami has four receivers with over 300 yards. The Hurricanes offense usually doesn’t score big points, although they should have success against a poor Louisville defense.

The Miami defense is among the best in the ACC. They have limited their opposition to only a combined 22 points in their last two games. The Hurricanes are currently averaging 26.8 points, ranking them 81st overall. They are limiting opponents to an average of 18.3 points, good for 18th in the country. Miami is 3-2 at home. Miami can secure bowl eligibility with a win in this game.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am selecting Hurricanes in this conference battle. Miami Florida is on a roll, winning two straight games led by stifling defense, and to Miami’s credit, both wins were on the road at Pittsburgh and Florida State. The Hurricanes' defense will neutralize the Cardinals. There is no weakness in this defensive unit. Louisville has a good portion of their success on the ground, and Miami features a rush defense that is holding opponents to only 98 rushing yards per game, good for 12th in the FBS. Their pass defense is tough to crack as well as it ranks 29th overall.

Furthermore, this Louisville defense is not reliable. They have surrendered an average of 39.8 points in ACC play this season. The Hurricanes feature a dangerous passing offense with several talented receivers that are all capable of big games. The Cardinals pass defense is their biggest flaw on defense as they are placed down at 106th against the pass.

Prediction: Miami Florida Hurricanes

Full-Game Total Pick

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I expect a high scoring game. Miami doesn’t usually score big points, but when up against a weak defense they can do significant damage. This Cardinals team is placed in the bottom third of the FBS in most defensive categories which includes a pass defense ranked 106th in the FBS. Miami QB Jarren Williams has connected on 67% of his passes. The over is 4-1 in the Hurricanes last five games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.

In addition, while I except Miami to contain Louisville, they lean on their offense. RB Javian Hawkins is a stellar running back that has accumulated over 260 rushing yards in his last two games. The over is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last six road games and that trend should prevail in this one.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The under on the Louisville team total available on PointsBet is a strong option. The Hurricanes' defense is tremendous. They have limited their opposition to 12 or fewer points in three out of their last four games overall. Miami can get to the QB in a hurry with a great pass rush and they are very tough to solve on the ground. Add in the fact that Louisville is on the road in a tough environment. 

Prediction: Louisville Team Total Under

Half-Time Total Bet

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I am opting with the under on the first half line. The Cardinals haven’t done a whole lot in the first half recently. They only scored a combined 10 points in their last two games in the first half. Miami’s first-half defense is stellar, limiting opponents to 10.9 points, good for 32nd overall. They also held Pittsburgh to six half two weeks, ago and Seminoles to three points in the first half last week.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.