Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#165 South Alabama 43.5 vs.
#166 Texas State -7
Saturday, November 9, 2019 at 3:00pm EST
Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos
Written by Chris Kubala



#165 University of South Alabama
#166 Texas State University


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It’s a matchup between the two bottom teams in the West Division of the Sun Belt when they lock up in the Lone Star State. The South Alabama Jaguars are on the road as they travel to face the Texas State Bobcats Saturday afternoon. South Alabama comes in off a bye last week: they were hammered 30-3 at home by #21 Appalachian State in their previous contest on October 26. Texas State was rolled 31-3 by Louisiana on the road last Saturday in their previous game. The teams have split four previous meetings with the Jaguars taking a 41-31 home win in the most recent matchup on September 15, 2018.

South Alabama Jaguars Looking to Get Back in Win Column

South Alabama comes in off a bye, giving them an extra week to prepare. Prior to that, the Jaguars were hammered by Appalachian State and they are still in search for their first conference win of the season. South Alabama was down 7-0 after the opening quarter and 13-0 at the half: they didn’t get on the board until under six minutes remained in the contest. The Jaguars were dominated 445-139 in total offense in the contest, allowed 21 first downs while picking up 10 and lost the time of possession battle by a 34:36 to 25:24 margin in the contest. In addition, South Alabama committed the game’s lone turnover.

The Jaguars enter this contest 123rd in the nation in passing offense with 141.1 yards per game while they are 83rd in rushing offense with 149.8 yards per contest. South Alabama stands a dismal 128th in the FBS in scoring offense with 14.6 points per game while the team is 90th in the nation in scoring defense by allowing 30.4 points per contest. Cephus Johnson is 83 of 161 passing for 900 yards with five touchdowns and seven interceptions: he is second on the team with 181 rushing yards plus four scores. Tylan Morton is 10 of 24 for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while Desmond Trotter is three of nine passing for 43 yards. Tra Minter leads the team with 111 carries for 657 yards and two scores. Jared Wilson is next in line with 41 carries for 158 yards on the season. Minter leads the team with 26 receptions for 192 yards on the year. Jalen Tolbert (17 receptions, 268 yards, TD) and Kawaan Baker (22 catches, 401 yards, three TD) are solid targets. Frankie Onate has hit all 10 extra-point attempts and seven of 10 field goal tries with a long of 45 this season.

Texas State Bobcats Try to Snap Skid at Three

Texas State suffered their third straight loss as they were hammered on the road by Louisiana in their last contest. The Bobcats are 1-3 in conference play and look to avoid falling into the basement of the West Division of the Sun Belt. Texas State struggled offensively but trailed only 7-3 with under two minutes to play in the first half. The Bobcats gave up a field goal on the final play of the half and then gave up three touchdowns in the third quarter to put the game away. Texas State was outgained 479-264 in the contest, gave up 24 first downs while picking up 17 and was edged 30:32 to 29:28 in time of possession. The Bobcats turned the ball over twice while forcing only one takeaway in the game.

The Bobcats are 71st in the nation in passing offense with 226.3 yards per contest but they rank a dismal 127th in Division I in rushing offense with 79.5 yards per game. Texas State is a miserable 124th in scoring offense with 16.2 points per contest while they are 87th in scoring defense by allowing 30.1 points per game. Gresch Jensen has completed 129 of 206 passes for 1,291 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions this season. Tyler Vitt is 54 of 87 for 515 yards with three touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year. Caleb Twyford has run the ball 100 times for a team-high 457 yards plus a pair of scores: Anthony D. Taylor is next in line with 48 carries for 134 yards and two scores. Hutch White is the team’s leading receiver with 41 catches for 299 yards and a score this season. Trevis Graham Jr. (20 receptions, 254 yards, two TD) and Caleb Twyford (23 grabs, 146 yards, TD) are next in the pecking order. Joshua Rowland has hit all 16 extra point attempts but is six of nine on field goals with a long of 45 this season.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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South Alabama has struggled on both sides of the ball this season and that’s a major factor for their issues. The Jaguars have been dismal on the offensive side of the ball, completing less than 50 percent of their passes, and stand -5 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio this season. Texas State hasn’t been great but they are at home and they do own a conference victory as they dropped Georgia State earlier this season. All four of South Alabama’s road games are losses by double digits: look for the Bobcats to capitalize on that and earn the victory.

Prediction: Texas State Bobcats -7.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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South Alabama has struggled on the offensive side of the ball this season. After scoring 21 points in a loss at Nebraska and 37 points in their home win over Jackson State, things have gone downhill. The Jaguars have been held to 17 points or less in each of their last six games, scoring six or less points in three of their six games. Texas State has put up 17 points or less in six of their eight games this season: they have 61 points in their two wins and 69 points in their six losses. The Bobcats are at home in this contest, which works in their favor: can Texas State defend their home field here to earn their second conference win of the year?

The under is 6-0 in the Jaguars' last six overall, 4-0 in their last four on the road, 4-0 in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 4-0 in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Texas State has seen the under go 4-0 in their last four in November, 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 8-1 in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Both teams have their issues putting points on the board, keeping this one under the total.

Prediction: Under 41.5

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.