Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#143 Vanderbilt vs.
#144 Florida
Saturday, November 9, 2019 at 12:00pm EST
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville
Written by Chris Kubala

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#143 Vanderbilt University
#144 University of Florida
2-6
7-2
1-7
3-3-2
2-6
3-5
16
30
32
16

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It’s a matchup of teams from the SEC East on the gridiron down in the swamps of the Sunshine State. The Vanderbilt Commodores are on the road as they travel to face the #10 Florida Gators Saturday afternoon. Vanderbilt comes in off a 24-7 road loss to South Carolina in their previous game last Saturday. Florida lost for the second time in three games as they were beaten 24-17 by #8 Georgia last Saturday in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. The Gators own a commanding 40-10-2 advantage in the all-time series and have taken the last five matchups: that includes a 37-27 road win in the most recent meeting on October 13, 2018.

Vanderbilt Commodores Seek to Spring Upset

Vanderbilt was unable to build off their win over a ranked Missouri team in their previous contest as they were dumped on the road by South Carolina last week. The Commodores are just 2-6 on the season, 1-4 in conference play, and one has to wonder if the temperature is getting hot for coach Derek Mason’s seat. Vanderbilt drove 77 yards in 11 plays and took 6:06 off the clock on their first drive of the game to go up 7-0 and then failed to score the rest of the way. The Commodores were outgained decisively in the contest 440-189, gave up 25 first downs while picking up 12 and lost the time of possession by a 33:47 to 26:13 margin. Vanderbilt turned the ball over twice while forcing only one takeaway. It marked the fourth time this season the Commodores have scored 10 points or less.

The Commodores are 105th in the nation in passing offense with 191.3 yards per contest and the team is 109th in rushing offense with just 125.9 yards per game. Vanderbilt is a dismal 123rd in scoring offense with 17 points per game and stands 105th in the FBS in scoring defense as they allow 32.4 points per contest. Riley Neal has completed 109 of 186 passes for 1,193 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Deuce Wallace is 33 of 76 for 217 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions while Mo Hasan is seven of 11 for 120 yards and a score this season. Ke’Shawn Vaughn leads the team with 151 carries for 790 yards and six scores on the ground: no other player has more than 115 yards. Kalija Lipscomb leads the team with 32 catches for 377 yards plus two touchdowns on the season. Vaughn has 23 catches for 234 yards plus a score while Jared Pinkney (15 grabs, 157 yards), Cam Johnson (20 receptions, 231 yards, three TD) and Justice Shelton-Mosley (12 catches, 83 yards) are other options. Ryley Guay has hit 10 of 10 extra points and seven of his eight field goal tries with a long of 48 this season. Javan Rice is four of four on extra points and hit his lone field goal try from 28 yards.

Florida Gators Try to Stop the Bleeding

Florida lost for the second time in three games as they were upended by #8 Georgia when a fourth-quarter rally fell short. The Gators dropped to second in the SEC East with their 4-2 mark and don’t have the tiebreaker with Georgia after the defeat. Florida trailed 16-3 after three quarters and couldn’t get closer than six in the final quarter. The Gators made it a one-score game with 3:11 to play but were unable to get the ball back. Florida was outgained 398-278, gave up 20 first downs while recording 18 and was dominated in time of possession by a 35:48 to 24:12 margin. Most importantly, Florida’s defense, which came in having forced 18 turnovers, didn’t have one: there were no turnovers in the contest.

The Gators enter this one 31st in passing offense with 275 yards per contest and 107th in rushing offense with 128.9 yards per game this season. Florida is 54th in the FBS in scoring offense as they average 30.8 points per game while the team is 11th in scoring defense as they allow just 16.7 points per contest. Feleipe Franks is 54 of 71 passing for 698 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions plus 68 rushing yards and a score. He’s done for the year with a dislocated ankle with a fracture suffered against Kentucky. Kyle Trask is 135 of 202 passing for 1,648 yards with 16 touchdowns and four picks while Emory Jones is 17 of 28 for 125 yards and a score while adding 118 rushing yards and a touchdown. Lamical Perine leads the team with 107 carries for 491 yards and four scores on the season. Dameon Pierce is next in line with 38 carries for 259 yards and three touchdowns. Van Jefferson is tied for second on the Gators with 29 receptions for 362 yards and four scores. Kyle Pitts has a team-leading 39 receptions for 254 yards plus three scores while Trevon Grimes (23 grabs, 309 yards, two TD), Josh Hammond (20 catches, 229 yards, TD) and Freddie Swain (29 grabs, 430 yards, five TD) are next in line. Evan McPherson has hit all 32 extra-point attempts and nine of 10 on field goals with a long of 48. Chris Howard hit both his extra-point tries and hasn’t attempted a field goal this season.

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Vanderbilt has sputtered offensively most of the season and their inability to put points on the board, or even move the ball for that matter, is a major concern. Florida is seething after dropping two of their last three games and you know that they’re going to be motivated to get back on track here. The Commodores have already been outgained by more than 1,000 yards this season and you have to think that yards and points will be hard to come by against a tough Florida defense. The Gators gave up 66 points in their two losses: they have allowed just 84 points total in their seven wins. Florida smothers Vanderbilt and gets win number eight in a one-sided rout.

Prediction: Florida Gators -26.5

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Vanderbilt has been ineffective offensively most of the season and they now have to deal with a Florida defense that has been stingy most of the year. The Gators are at home, where they have outscored the opposition by a collective 141-16 this season with a pair of shutouts. Vanderbilt is winless on the road, having been outscored by a 97-37 margin. The Commodores scored 24 points on the road against Purdue but has just 13 in their two road conference games: those came against Ole Miss and South Carolina. Neither of those defenses match up to Florida's: can we expect much from Vanderbilt offensively?

The under is 5-0 in the Commodores' last five overall, 4-0 in their last four in November, 4-0 in their last four after an ATS loss and 5-0 in their last five on the road against teams with a winning home record. Florida has seen the under go 6-0 in their last at home, 6-2 in their last eight at home against teams with a losing road record and 6-2 in their last eight after an ATS loss. Look for this one to be another suffocating showing by the Florida defense, keeping this one under the number.

Prediction: Under 48
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.