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New Mexico vs. Boise St,
9-14-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#103 New Mexico
Lobos
#104 Boise State
Broncos

Thursday, September 14, 2017 at 8:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

New Mexico Lobos

-

-
ATS
-
O/U
0
PPG
0
OPPG

Boise State Broncos

-

-
ATS
-
O/U
0
PPG
0
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAF

No betting trends available for this game. Click here to see all available for NCAAF.

New Mexico Lobos (1-1 SU, 0-2-0 PS, 0-2-0 O/U) vs Boise State Broncos (1-1 SU, 2-0-0 PS, 1-1-0 O/U)

When: 8:00 PM EDT, Thursday, September 14, 2017

Where: Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho

Lines: Boise State -14.5

Total: 58.5

College football action on Thursday evening and a couple of Mountain West Conference will square off as the New Mexico Lobos grapple with the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. The Lobos are off a very tough 30-28 home loss to New Mexico State, while the Broncos are off an equally tough loss as they fell 47-44 to Washington State in OT. Boise State won last year at New Mexico by a score of 49-21.

Comeback Falls Just Short Against Aggies

The New Mexico Lobos had a nice easy win to start their year as they beat Abilene Christian by a score of 38-14, but the competition got a little better in their second game and they fell 30-28 to in-state rival, New Mexico State. The Aggies are not a powerhouse, but they are a very experienced team and played well in their opening loss to Arizona State on the road. The Lobos were down 30-5 at the starter of the 4th quarter but made a furious comeback to lose the game by just two points. Leading the comeback try was Tevaka Tuioti, who replaced an ineffective Lamar Jordan. Tuioti threw for 151 yards and two TDs in the game, while Jordan threw for just 103 yards and have two INTs. The Lobos rolled up 430 yards of total offense in the game, including 176 yards on the ground. Leading their ground attack was Jay Griffin IV, who had 64 yards and a TD. The big problem in this game was a defense that allowed 500 yards of total offense, including 401 yards through the air. That defense will have to improve for this one as the Broncos are a good passing team as they showed in their loss to Washington State on Saturday night. Last year, the Lobos allowed Boise State QB Brett Rypien to throw for 391 yards and four TDs in a 49-21 loss. 

The Lobos have been a decent offensive team so far as they come in ranked 42nd in the nation in total offense (455.5 ypg), 60th in passing (238 ypg), 42nd in rushing (217.5 ypg) and 62nd in scoring at 33.0 ppg. On defense, they come in ranked 79th in total yards allowed (391.0 ypg), 122nd against the pass (337.5 ypg) and 7th vs the run (53.5 ypg), while allowing 22.0 ppg, which is 58th in the land.

Broncos Take Tough Loss To Washington State In OT

The Boise State Broncos are not the same team they were a few year ago, when they really owned the MWC and were always in the mix for a New Year’s Day Bowl, but still, this is a very solid team and the Washington State Cougars found that out on Saturday night. The game was tight for much of it until the Broncos opened up a 21` point lead with 10:53 left in the game. From there, their defense crumbled as the Cougars scored 21 unanswered points to tie the game at 31 and send it to OT. The teams traded a few scores in OT before the Cougars walked away with a 47-44 win. That is a very tough loss for any team to take and now they must put it behind them as they get ready for an important conference game. The Broncos are a good offensive team and they had 405 yards against the Cougars. Brett Rypien got the start at QB, but was injured and was replaced by Montell Cozart, who had a solid game as he threw for 161 yards, two Tds and one pick in the game. He really gave the offense a spark, but still, it was their defense that let them down, especially in the 4th quarter. For the game, the Cougars rolled up 455 yards on this defense, including 433 yards through the air. They will not be facing a good passing team in this one, but still, the Lobos will throw it, especially if the run game is working. Last year, the Lobos ran for 382 yards on them.     

On offense, the Broncos come in ranked 85th in the nation in total offense (381.0 ypg), 73rd in passing (223.5 ypg), 72nd in rushing (157.5 ypg) and 54th in scoring at 34.0 ppg. On defense, they come in ranked 51st in total yards allowed (335.0 ypg), 102nd against the pass (286.0 ypg) and 5th vs the run (49.0 ypg), while allowing 30 ppg, which is 92nd in the nation.

Trends

New Mexico is:

  • 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game
  • 0-4 ATS in their last four games in September

Boise State is:

  • 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game
  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game

The Broncos really blew one last week against the Washington State Cougars, while the Lobos nearly had a miraculous comeback against in-state rival New Mexico State. The Lobos had a strong season a year ago, but they were expected to take a step back this year, especially with a defense that has just three starters back and so far, that defense has struggled, especially against the pass as they have allowed 337.5 ypg through the air so far. That may not get better here on the Blue turf against a Boise State team that threw 433 yards against Washington State last week. Last year, the Broncos won this game by a score of 49-21 and they threw for 391 yards in that game. The Broncos are angry after that loss against the Cougars and are a dominant team at home. I look for them to win this one by at least 24 points.

Pick: Boise State -14.5

No OU line yet? No problem. I expect the OU line for this game to be very high as both offenses can be explosive and one team doesn’t play any defense. The Lobos have thrown a bit more this year, but they will have to run the ball more as it will keep a very good Bronco offense on the sideline, Still, it will not be easy for the Lobos to move the ball on this team, especially here at home, where the Broncos do play solid defense. This is a good Bronco defense that will show up to play here after their 4th quarter collapse last week. On offense, the Broncos will score plenty on the Lobos, but they will also call off the dogs late after they have a huge lead and then turn more to their run game, which will eat clock late in the game. I look for a 42-17 type final score.  

Pick: Under

Confidence: 2

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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