Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#163 Louisiana Tech -11.5 vs.
#164 Bowling Green 55.5
Saturday, September 14, 2019 at 5:00pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala



#163 Louisiana Tech University
#164 Bowling Green State University


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It’s a non-conference tilt between mid-major programs on the gridiron as Conference USA makes the trek northward to battle the Mid-American Conference in week 3 action. The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are on the road as they make the trip to face the Bowling Green Falcons Saturday afternoon. Louisiana Tech hung on for a 20-14 win at home over Grambling last Saturday to get in the win column. Bowling Green was obliterated 52-0 on the road by Kansas State last Saturday in their last contest. The Bulldogs have won both previous meetings between the teams, including a 30-23 home win in the last matchup on August 30, 1997.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Look for Second Straight Win

Louisiana Tech bounced back from a season-opening defeat at #10 Texas as they earned a hard-fought home win over Grambling last week. The Bulldogs now try for back to back wins as they head out on the road again. Louisiana Tech jumped to a 20-0 halftime lead but went scoreless in the second half: they stopped Grambling after the Tigers recovered an onside kick and ran out the final 2:16 to earn the win. The Bulldogs were outgained 455-390 in the contest, gave up 32 first downs while recording 20 and dropped the time of possession battle 30:45 to 29:15 yet prevailed. Louisiana Tech did force the game’s lone turnover in the contest.

The Bulldogs are putting up an average of 280 yards per game through the air while adding 121.5 yards per contest on the ground this season. Louisiana Tech is just 112th in the FBS in scoring offense with 17 points per game while the team is 98th in scoring defense as they allow 29.5 points per contest. J’Mar Smith is the force under center: he is 51 of 76 passing for 551 yards with three touchdowns and one interception while adding 33 rushing yards. Westin Elliott is one of three for nine yards and an interception this season. Israel Tucker leads the team with 22 carries for 83 yards on the ground this season. Jaqwis Dancy contributes 12 carries for 74 yards while Justin Henderson chips in 11 carries for 41 yards plus a score. Cee Jay Powell has hauled in a team-leading 10 receptions for 113 yards. Griffin Hebert (eight catches, 118 yards, two TD), Smoke Harris (eight receptions, 61 yards) and Adrian Hardy (six receptions, 69 yards) are solid targets in the passing game. Bailey Hale has hit all four extra point attempts and two of four field goal tries with a long of 48.

Bowling Green Falcons Try to Recover From Blowout Loss

Bowling Green went on the road against a Power Five program and was thrashed on the road by Kansas State to drop to .500 on the season. The Falcons now return home and they look to get back on track in this contest. Bowling Green never generated much in the way of offense as their deepest penetration in the game was the Kansas State 32-yard line: that came in the third quarter with the score already 45-0. The Falcons were outgained 521-140, dusted 25-5 in the first down category and saw the Wildcats own a dominant 42:52 to 17:08 margin in time of possession. Both teams turned the ball over once in the contest.

The Falcons average 186.5 yards per game through the air and 193.5 yards per contest on the ground this season. Bowling Green is 92nd in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up 23 points per game while the team is 85th in scoring defense by allowing 27.5 points per contest. Darius Wade has completed 30 of 51 passes for 332 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions: he adds 42 yards on the ground. Grant Loy is six of 10 for 41 yards with a touchdown while adding 60 yards on the ground. Davon Jones leads the team on the ground with 24 carries for 123 yards plus a score. Andrew Clair (14 carries, 86 yards, TD) and Bryson Denley (14 carries, 53 yards) are the next backs in the system. Quintin Morris leads the team with six grabs for 81 yards plus two scores. Julian Ortega-Jones (five catches, 69 yards) and Denley (five grabs, 46 yards) are next in line in the passing attack. Nate Needham has converted five of six extra point attempts and one of two field goals with a long of 24 this season.

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Both teams have a blowout road loss on their resume along with a home victory. The difference comes in the margin of victory: Louisiana Tech escaped with a six-point triumph over Grambling while Bowling Green whipped an overmatched Morgan State team. The Bulldogs did at least put points on the board in their loss at a ranked Texas team while Bowling Green was blanked by Kansas State. With that in mind, you have to give the slight edge to the hosts here based on their performance at home in their opener. Look for Bowling Green to win a tight game here to improve to 2-1 on the season.

Prediction: Bowling Green Falcons +10

Full-Game Total Pick

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There hasn’t been an offensive bonanza on a consistent basis for either team this season. Bowling Green put up all their points in their season opener before getting blanked last week. Louisiana Tech was blown out in the opener before earning the win last week over Grambling. The Bulldogs have given up five scoring passes without recording an interception, which could play in Bowling Green’s favor. After all, the Falcons have four touchdowns through the air this season. You have to think that Bowling Green will put points on the board here: can Louisiana Tech get their offense going?

The under is 6-0 in the Bulldogs’ last 6 games following an ATS loss, 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 7-1 in their last eight overall and 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Bowling Green has seen the under go 7-0 in their last seven overall, 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game and 7-0 in their last seven overall. This one, given the inconsistency offensively by both teams so far, keeps this one under the mark.

Prediction: Under 55.5

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.