Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#127 San Diego State -17 vs.
#128 New Mexico State 51
Saturday, September 14, 2019 at 8:00pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#127 San Diego State University
#128 New Mexico State University
2-0
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1-1
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14
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The New Mexico State Aggies will host the San Diego State Aztecs in week three action Saturday evening from Aggie Memorial Stadium. The Aztecs recorded a 23-14 upset road win against UCLA in their previous action, and the Aggies were trounced 62-10 at #1 Alabama last week. This marks the first meeting since 2013 in a game SDSU won 26-16.

Aztecs Stun UCLA to Improve to 2-0

The San Diego State Aztecs have a golden opportunity to improve to 3-0. They blanked Weber State of the FCS 6-0 in week one, and they came through with a big 23-14 road win against UCLA last week in a game that SDSU as 7.5 point underdogs. Aztecs’ QB Ryan Agnew rebounded with 293 passing yards after struggling in week one. The senior QB has registered 401 passing yards with one TD against zero interceptions in two games.

SDSU’s #1 RB Juwan Washington hasn’t been particularly effective in two games, rushing for 96 yards on an average of only 2.3 yards per rush attempt. The senior RB is talented and he posted 999 rushing yards in 2018. WR Kobe Smith has already surpassed last year’s receiving total. The sophomore RB has notched 139 receiving yards in two games after posting 113 yards last year. The Aztecs offense should be improved after ranking down at 120th in points last year, but this is a team that relies on defense to win games.

The SDSU defense has come up big in their first two games. They were able to limit UCLA to only 261 total yards last week. They had one of the best rush defense units in the FBS last year, and they have shut down the run in both games this year, ranking 8th in the country in rush defense. The Aztecs have averaged 14.5 points in two games and they have conceded an average of only seven points.

Aggies Crushed in Two Tough Games to Open Season

The New Mexico State Aggies’ tough schedule continues. They kicked off their season with a 58-7 loss to #23 Washington State, followed by a 62-10 defeat at the hands of #1 Alabama last week. The good news is the Aggies are back on their home field. QB Josh Adkins has actually looked pretty good considering he was up against two ranked teams. The sophomore QB has completed 65% of his passes for 366 yards although he only has one touchdown against two interceptions. Aggies’ # RB Jason Huntley only rushed three times last week after averaging a remarkable 6.3 yards per attempt for 57 yards in week one against Washington State. Huntley should be able to make his presence felt in this one.

The Aggies expect a big season from WR Tony Nicholson. The senior sat out last year after notching 344 receiving yards in his first year with Baylor of the Big 12 in 2017. Nicholson has made nine grabs for 84 yards in two games. The Aggies’ offense wasn’t able to generate any significant offense in their first two games, although they should post a better performance this week against a team closer to their level.

The New Mexico State defense was challenged by facing two of the better offensive units in the FBS in their first two games and they had no answer. They were one of the worst defensive teams in the nation last year. Fortunately, San Diego State is not a high scoring team, and it will be interesting to see how they fare. The Aggies have only averaged 8.5 points in their first two games after allowing an average of 60 points.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am taking the points with New Mexico State in this one. While San Diego State should win, I am confident New Mexico State can keep this one within reach. The Aggies first two games were against #23 Washington State and #2 Alabama, so I do not put too much weight into the scores. QB Josh Adkins has managed to complete 65% of his passes through the first two games which is a promising accomplishment. The sophomore QB steadily improved last season, and I expect a breakout game in this one.

Furthermore, the Aztecs’ offense is not a huge threat which will make covering these points tough. They only scored six points against a Weber State team that is not even in the FCS in week one, so I am confident NMSU can at least neutralize their production. The Aggies were in the spotlight in their first two games against two ranked teams which should help them in this one.

Prediction: New Mexico State

Full-Game Total Pick

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I expect a lower scoring game. The under has cashed in the Aztecs first two games due to their strong defense and low scoring offense. The Aggies will make their presence felt from an offensive standpoint, but they are up against an SDSU defense that held UCLA to 14 points, plus the under is 4-0 in SDSU’s last four non-conference games.

In addition, the Aztecs stand down at 98th in passing offense and 115th in rushing offense through two games. QB Ryan Agnew has only tossed one touchdown countered with two interceptions in two games. The under is 5-1 in the Aztecs’ last six games and that trend should resume in this one.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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I like the under on the San Diego State team total. This Aztecs team only managed to score six points on 238 total yards against Weber State in week one. Ryan Agnew only has one TD pass, and the Aztecs running game has been almost non-existent as they have only averaged three yards per carry followed by 1.7 yards per attempt in their two games.

Prediction: San Diego State Team Total Under

Half-Time Side Pick

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I am siding with San Diego State on the halftime line. SDSU has limited their opponents to only a combined seven points in the opening half in their two games.  I expect the Aggies to find a comfort zone on offense as the game progresses. NMSU scored all 10 of their points last week in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: San Diego State
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.