Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#179 Texas State 58 vs.
#180 SMU -17
Saturday, September 14, 2019 at 7:00pm EDT
Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas
Written by Scott Reichel



#179 Texas State University
#180 Southern Methodist University


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This Saturday, there is a college football matchup between the Texas State Bobcats and the SMU Mustangs. These teams will face off at about 7:00 PM. This is game three of the regular season for both teams, which will take place at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

Texas State Looks To Snap Losing Streak

The Texas State Bobcats entered the 2019 season with expectations of improving after a terrible 2018 campaign. Last season, Texas State went just 3-6 overall and went a pathetic 1-7 in conference play. To make matters worse, the Bobcats lost the last three game of that season by a combined 62 points. So far this season, that losing trend has continued as Texas State has lost the first two games of this season by a combined 43 points. Now, Texas State will look to pull off a massive upset against an SMU team whose offense has looked lethal so far this season. Even though an upset is unlikely, perhaps Texas State’s defense can rise to the occasion.

The starting quarterback for the Wolfpack is junior Gresch Jensen who looked okay in the first two games of the regular season. Last week, he threw for an impressive 394 yards along with one passing touchdown. However, he also threw two interceptions as his team lost 23-14 to Wyoming at home. It is also worth mentioning that he was sacked five times in that game so his struggles are at least partially due to Texas State’s below average offensive line that will need to improve moving forward.

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So far this season, Texas State has been below average on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the Bobcats rank 105th in the nation with 332.0 yards per game while also scoring 10.5 points per game which is the fifth-lowest in the nation. At the same time, Texas State’s defense ranks 105th in the nation in points allowed with 32.0 while also ranking 80th with 386.0 yards allowed per game.

SMU’s Offense Looks To Keep Rolling

The SMU Mustangs entered the 2019 season with the hopes of reaching a bowl game after falling just one game short last year. Last season, SMU went 5-7 overall and went 4-4 in conference play. To make matters worse, the Mustangs had a shot to reach a bowl game but lost to Tulsa by three points in the regular-season finale. So far this season, SMU has looked fantastic as it is undefeated through the first two weeks. The main reason for its success has been its prolific offense which has put up points in bunches. Specifically, SMU has scored at least 37 points in both games and will look to keep up that level of production on Saturday.

The starting quarterback for the Mustangs is junior Shane Buechele who looked great in the first two games of the regular season. Buechele made a bold decision earlier this year when he decided to transfer to SMU from Texas but it appears that the move is finally starting to pay off. Last week, he threw for 292 yards along with three passing touchdowns and no interceptions as he led SMU to an easy 49-27 victory against North Texas at home.

So far this season, SMU has been great on offense this season. Specifically, the Mustangs rank 30th in the nation with 506.0 yards per game while also scoring 43.0 points per game which is tied for the 23rd-most in the nation. However, SMU’s defense has been terrible so far this season. Specifically, SMU’s defense ranks 92nd in the nation in points allowed with 28.5 while also ranking 91st with 405.0 yards allowed per game.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Simply put, SMU is the much better team in this matchup and should play extremely well at home once again on Saturday. SMU managed to beat a North Texas team that made a bowl game last year by 22 points at home last week so I expect SMU to be able to handle Texas State pretty easily in this game. Plus, Texas State’s defense should struggle dealing with SMU’s extremely fast offense that has the ability to put up at least 45 points in any given week. Give me the home team as a result.

Prediction: SMU -17.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Even though Texas State’s offense has looked awful this season, I have to lean to the over. SMU and Texas State try to play with a lot of pace offensively so I expect a lot of no huddle from both sides which should result in more possessions and more clock stoppages. Plus, SMU just scored 49 points last week and now get to feast on a below average Texas State defense so I can see the Mustangs scoring over 50 points in this game. I see this game ending somewhere in the realm of 52-21. Give me the over.

Prediction: Over 69.5

Written By Scott Reichel

Scott Reichel is a University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate with an insane passion for sports. His commitment to endlessly researching statistics helps separate him from other handicappers with regard to MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL and NFL coverage. Scott also shares his passion for sports on StatSalt's YouTube page where he does a daily show called Scott's Selections.