Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#129 New Mexico vs.
#130 Texas A&M
Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 12:00pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul

The New Mexico Lobos will head on the road to Kyle Field on Saturday afternoon for a non-conference clash versus the No. 7-ranked Texas A&M Aggies.

The Aggies managed to improve to 2-0 last week despite losing their starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, New Mexico comes into College Station, Texas in search of an upset after taking down in-state rival New Mexico State last week.

Can the Aggies avoid another upset at home against New Mexico on Saturday afternoon?

Wilson leads 2-0 upset-minded Lobos into College Station

New Mexico escaped with a 34-25 win at home against New Mexico State last weekend to remain undefeated on the season. Terry Wilson completed 26 of 37 passes for a career-high 362 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead the Lobos to victory. Running back Bobby Cole finished with 107 rushing yards and a touchdown while Mannie Logan-Greene caught seven balls for 106 yards, including a 58-yards touchdown to seal the win in the fourth quarter.

Wilson, a former Kentucky transfer, has plenty of big-game experience from his days in the SEC with the Wildcats. For his career, the 6-foot-3 senior has thrown for 26 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions while adding another 10 scores on the ground. In two games with New Mexico, Wilson has thrown for 560 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

On defense, New Mexico comes into the week allowing 21 points and 266 yards of total offense per contest. The Lobos defense has been particularly stout against the run through two games, allowing just 51.5 yards per game on the ground. However, they will have their hands full this week against one of the best running backs in the country in Isaiah Spiller.

Calzada leads Texas A&M to comeback win at Colorado

Texas A&M avoided an upset with a 10-7 win in a close call against Colorado last weekend. Backup quarterback Zach Calzada led the comeback victory after starter Haynes King went down with an injury on the Aggies’ second possession. After a slow start, Calzada finished with 183 passing yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions on the day. The Aggies' defense also tightened up after giving up a first-quarter touchdown. Texas A&M limited Colorado to just 89 passing yards and just 4.12 yards per play in the win.

Despite the victory, the Aggies slid to No. 7 in the AP Top-25 polls this week. After winning the job in fall camp, redshirt freshman quarterback Haynes King was off to a shaky start as the team’s starting quarterback before getting hurt. He completed only 22 of 35 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in just over one game of action.

King is expected to miss time with a “crack in his lower leg”, according to head coach Jimbo Fisher, who declined to give a timeline for King’s return. However, a source told ESPN that the Aggies’ starting quarterback could be out 4-7 weeks. Calzada, a sophomore, will be the team’s starter under center moving forward. Prior to last week, the 6-foot-4 sophomore last appeared in a game in 2019.

On defense, Texas A&M comes in giving up just 8.5 points per game, which ranks fifth in the country. The Aggies also rank 43rd in the nation in total defense at 298 yards per game and third against the pass, allowing just 99.5 yards per game through the air.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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It will be interesting to see what the Aggies can muster on offense this week with Calzada under center for a full game. If Texas A&M is going to cover the spread, they will have to find a way to move the ball on the ground. The Lobos have fared well against the run through two games and Spiller was bottled up, for the most part, against Colorado last week. While he caught six passes for 56 yards and a score, the Aggies’ dynamic running back had just 20 rushing yards and averaged just 2.5 yards per carry on the ground.  If New Mexico can hold its own upfront, Wilson has enough experience and talent to keep this game closer than most people expect. Take New Mexico to cover the spread on the road in this non-conference battle on Saturday. 

Prediction: New Mexico Lobos +29.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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These two teams are projected for 50.5 points but that number seems a bit too high here. The Aggies didn’t look nearly as dangerous on offense with Calzada under center last week. While Texas A&M squeaked out a win at Colorado, the run game stalled, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. The Lobos have been stout against the run thus far and they will have a chance to keep the Aggies off of the board if they can limit big plays in the run game. After giving up just 17 combined points over the first two games, Texas A&M’s defense should be able to turn this game into a defensive slugfest. Take this contest to stay under the projected total on Saturday.

Prediction: Under 50.5
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He has been a very successful sports bettor over the years and has now brought his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.