Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#357 Georgia State 61 vs.
#358 Texas State -3
Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 7:00pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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#357 Georgia State University
#358 Texas State University
2-1
0-3
1-1-1
-2-1
2-1
1-2
31
12
42
36

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It’s a crossover matchup in the Sun Belt when a pair of teams lock up in the Lone Star State. The Georgia State Panthers are on the road as they make the trip to face the Texas State Bobcats Saturday night. Georgia State was pasted 57-10 on the road by Western Michigan last Saturday in their previous contest. Texas State was dropped 47-17 on the road by SMU last Saturday in their last outing. The all-time series between the teams is tied at three victories apiece with Texas State taking a 40-31 road win in the last matchup on November 3, 2018.

Georgia State Panthers Look to Regroup in Conference Opener

Georgia State opened the season with back to back wins but they were obliterated on the road by Western Michigan. The Panthers were gouged on the ground as they gave up seven touchdowns on the ground, setting a school record for the Broncos. All told, Georgia State allowed 450 yards on the ground while allowing 10.2 yards per carry. The Panthers were outgained 694-336 in the contest, gave up 25 first downs while recording only 13, and lost the time of possession by a 32:30 to 27:30 margin in the contest. In addition, Georgia State turned the ball over three times while failing to record a takeaway in the game.

The Panthers enter this contest 91st in the nation in passing offense (209 yards per game) and stand 38th in rushing with an average of 209 yards per contest. Georgia State is tied for 65th in the FBS in scoring offense with 32 points per game but stand a miserable 127th in scoring defense by allowing 43 points per game. Dan Ellington has completed 51 of 81 passes for 627 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception: he is second on the team with 191 rushing yards plus a score. Cornelious Brown is zero for five passing with an interception this year. Tra Barnett leads the ground game for the Panthers with 49 carries for 274 yards plus two scores while Seth Paige (29 carries, 120 yards, TD) is the next guy in line. Cornelius McCoy leads the team with 15 receptions for 199 yards and two touchdowns. Sam Pinckney (nine grabs, 97 yards, TD) and Terrance Dixon (nine catches, 82 yards, TD) are good targets for Ellington. Brandon Wright has hit all 12 extra points and four of four field goal tries with a long of 48 on the season.

Texas State Bobcats Seek First Win of 2019

Texas State was clobbered on the road by SMU last week in their last contest, leaving them 0-3 on the season. The Bobcats now try to pick up their first win of the year in their conference opener here. Texas State was down 13-3 at the half before getting outscored 21-7 in the third quarter to put them in a 34-10 hole: that sealed their fate. The Bobcats were trounced 639-241 in the total offense category: they allowed 23 first downs while recording 15 and were edged 30:54 to 29:06 in time of possession. Texas State did force three turnovers while committing only one but failed to capitalize on the Mustangs’ miscues.

The Bobcats are 37th in the nation in passing offense with 276.7 yards per contest but they rank dead last (130th) in Division I in rushing offense with 24.7 yards per game. Texas State is a miserable 129th in scoring offense with 12.7 points per contest while they are tied for 120th in scoring defense by allowing 37 points per game. Gresch Jensen has completed 75 of 122 passes for 739 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Tyler Vitt is 12 of 18 for 91 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions on the year. Caleb Twyford has run the ball 25 times for a team-high 84 yards plus a score: Anthony D. Taylor is next in line with 21 carries for 61 yards. Hutch White is the team’s leading receiver with 23 catches for 198 yards this season. Trevis Graham Jr. (11 receptions, 132 yards, TD) and Caleb Twyford (11 grabs, 80 yards, TD) are next in the pecking order. Joshua Rowland has hit all five extra-point attempts but is one of three on field goals with a long of 27 this season.

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Texas State can’t run the ball to save their lives and that’s a major factor. The Bobcats aren’t putting much in the way of points on the board, which has hampered them: they haven’t been helped by their defense any either. Georgia State has been solid running the ball and face a Texas State defense that gives up 275.3 yards per game on the ground along with a 5.9 yard per carry average this season. The Panthers have had their struggles on defense but their offensive numbers against a mediocre Texas State unit is more than enough. After all, in a losing effort against Texas State last season, Georgia State ran for 221 yards and three scores. Look for the Panthers to prevail in this one.

Prediction: Georgia State Panthers +3

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We’re looking at a game with a pair of dismal defenses on the field in this contest. The Panthers have been better offensively than they’ve been on the defensive side of the ball while on the flip side, Texas State has struggled regardless of what unit they put on the field. The Bobcats struggle to score points, they fail to keep the opposing team from scoring and their special teams unit is mediocre at best. Georgia State is on the road hoping to wash away the bad taste of last week’s blowout loss: can they open conference play on a positive note?

The under is 14-4 in the Panthers’ last 18 vs. a team with a losing record, 7-2 in their last 9 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 6-2 in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Texas State has seen the under go 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game, 4-0 in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 5-0 in their last 5 home games. Even with a pair of bad defenses, this total seems a bit too high: look for it to fall under the number.

Prediction: Under 63.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.