Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#363 LSU vs.
#364 Vanderbilt
Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 12:00pm EDT
Vanderbilt Stadium, Nasville
Written by Chris Kubala

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#363 Louisiana State University
#364 Vanderbilt University
3-0
0-2
2-0
-2
2-0
1-1
54
14
18
35

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It’s a crossover matchup from the SEC as conference play gets going up in the Music City. The #4 LSU Tigers are on the road as they make the trip to face the Vanderbilt Commodores Saturday afternoon. LSU rolls in off a 65-14 pasting of Northwestern State at home last Saturday. Vanderbilt was off last week: they were beaten 42-24 on the road by Purdue in their previous contest on September 7. The Tigers lead the all-time series 22-7-1 and have won the last seven meetings, including a 27-3 road win in the last meeting on September 11, 2010.

LSU Tigers Look to Earn Win in Conference Opener

LSU crushed Northwestern State in a non-conference tune-up last week to run their mark to a perfect 3-0 heading into SEC action. The Tigers trailed 7-3 after the opening quarter and held just a 17-14 edge with under six minutes to play in the opening half before scoring the final 48 points in the game. LSU rolled up a 610-278 edge in total offense, picked up a 31-15 edge in first downs and overcame committing the game’s lone turnover. The Tigers were beaten 33:38 to 26:22 in time of possession but weren’t challenged in the second half: sitting at #4, three of the top four teams in the nation are from the SEC.

The Tigers are second in the nation in passing offense with 436.3 yards per contest while the team is 106th in rushing offense with 115.3 yards per game. That could work in LSU’s favor as Vanderbilt has given up 665 yards and six scores through the air in two games. LSU is tied for third in the FBS in scoring offense with 55 points per game while ranking 39th in scoring defense with 18.3 points per contest. Joe Burrow has hit 75 of 90 passes for 1,122 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions: he’s added 40 yards plus a score on the ground. Myles Brennan is 15 of 21 for 187 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the team on the ground with 37 carries for 182 yards and four touchdowns. Tyrion Davis-Pierce (13 carries, 40 yards, two TD) and Lanard Fournette (12 carries, 35 yards, TD) are next in line. Justin Jefferson leads the team with 19 catches for 374 yards plus four scores while Terrace Marshall Jr. (16 grabs, 229 yards, team-high six scores) and JaMarr Chase (10 catches, 168 yards, TD) are solid targets as well. Cade York has hit 19 of 20 extra points and six of six field goal tries with a long of 48 this season.

“We look forward to getting on the road,” said LSU head coach Ed Orgeron. “We look forward to fixing ourselves this week. There’s a lot of things to fix. There’s a lot of things to be positive of. Very pleased with the play of Joe Burrow. Joe made a couple of throws out there that you just go, wow. You turn back the film time and time again and say how did he do that? Tremendous athlete. Tremendous touch. Tremendous will to win.

“Very pleased with the way Steve Ensminger and Joe Brady is calling our offense. Obviously lights out right now on offense throwing the football. We’ve got to get better running the football. We’ve got to get better up front on defense stopping the run and playing our gaps, and we look forward to this week.”

Vanderbilt Commodores Seeking Upset at Home for First Win

Vanderbilt was carved up through the air in their last game on the road and now hope to spring an upset at home over a top-five team to earn their first win of the season. The Commodores hung tough in the opening half, leading 7-0 early on and trailing 14-10 at the half before things went sideways. Vanderbilt was outscored 14-0 in the third quarter and couldn’t get closer than 12 the rest of the way. The Commodores were outgained 540-491 and lost the first down battle 27-23 in the contest. Both teams turned the ball over once though the Commodores owned a 31:23 to 28:37 edge in time of possession.

The Commodores are 45th in the nation in passing offense with 264.5 yards per contest and the team is 119th in rushing offense with just 93.5 yards per game. Vanderbilt is a dismal 125th in scoring offense with 15 points per game and stands tied for 115th in the FBS in scoring defense as they allow 36 points per contest. Riley Neal has completed 38 of 60 passes for 463 yards with two touchdowns and one interception this season. Deuce Wallace is nine of 19 for 66 yards while Cam Johnson misfired on his lone pass attempt. Ke’Shawn Vaughn leads the team with 32 carries for 130 yards and a score on the ground: no other player has more than 23 yards. Kalija Lipscomb leads the team with 11 catches for 106 yards on the season. Vaughn has seven catches for 46 yards while Jared Pinkney (five grabs, 72 yards), Cam Johnson (five receptions, 45 yards, TD) and Justice Shelton-Mosley (five catches, 37 yards) are other options. Ryley Guay has hit his lone extra point and all three of his field goal tries with a long of 48 this season.

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Vanderbilt hasn’t looked good in their first two games as they were drubbed by Georgia and then took the loss at Purdue. Now the Commodores have to contend with an LSU team that has looked downright dangerous in the first three games of the season. Burrow is completing a video game-like 83.3 percent of his throws this season and the Tigers are slicing through defenses through the air. It’s going to be a tough challenge for the Commodores to slow the LSU passing game after seeing their struggles against Purdue when they allowed five TD passes. The Tigers are blazing right now and they roll over the Commodores in this contest.

Prediction: LSU Tigers -23

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LSU has been explosive offensively as Burrow has really turned the corner in the passing game, making the team that much more dangerous. After completing 57.8 percent of his throws last season for 2,894 yards with 16 touchdowns and five picks, he’s already thrown for 11 TDs with 1,122 yards in three games. Burrow has hit 83.3 percent of his throws and the Tigers have piled up 165 points in those three contests. Vanderbilt was scorched by Purdue in their last game, giving up five scores through the air. Can the Commodores find a way to slow down the Tigers’ attack or will this be a LSU romp on the road?

The under is 4-1-1 in the Tigers’ last 6 vs. a team with a losing record and 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Vanderbilt has seen the under go 4-0 in their last four conference games, 5-1 in their last 6 games following a bye week, 4-1 in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 4-1 in their last five on fieldturf. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the teams: look for LSU to rack up their points but Vanderbilt struggles, leaving this one under the number.

Prediction: Under 62
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.