Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#379 SMU 58.5 vs.
#380 TCU -8
Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 3:30pm EDT
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth
Written by Scott Reichel

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#379 Southern Methodist University
#380 Texas Christian University
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Week four of college football continues as the SMU Mustangs travel to Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on the #25 TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday, Sep. 21 at 3:30 P.M. These two teams have not met since last season when TCU won by a score of 42-12.

SMU Looks To Score At Least 37 Points Again

The SMU Mustangs are still undefeated through the first three weeks of the regular season. At this pace, SMU is ready to shatter last year’s win total of five and potentially qualify for a bowl game. The main reason for SMU’s success this season has been its offense which has looked unstoppable. Specifically, SMU has scored at least 37 points in every game and defenses have had no answers. SMU’s use of offensive balance and pace has really made it difficult to gameplan for which can make them a good upset candidate on any given Saturday. With a ranked team up next, SMU will look to prove just how dangerous it is.

The starting quarterback for the Mustangs is juniorShane Buechele, theTexas transfer, looked good so far this season. Buechele has already thrown for 871 passing yards and five touchdowns. In addition, he has also completed more than 66% of his passes. However, he already has three interceptions on the year which raises some ball security concerns. If SMU plans on pulling off this upset, he will need to do a better job at limiting turnovers.

SMU’s biggest X-factor on offense is senior running back Xavier Jones who played extremely well so far this season. So far this season, Jones has rushed for 291 yards along with a whopping seven rushing touchdowns. In addition, he has yet to fumble the ball so he has the ability to be a workhorse back due to little questions regarding his ball security. If SMU plans on winning this game, Jones will most likely have to score at least two touchdowns.

TCU Looks To Move Up In AP Poll

The TCU Horned Frogs entered the 2019 season with hopes of drastic improvement. Last season, TCU went 7-6 and even beat California in the Cheez-It Bowl. However, the Horned Frogs have typically been much more competitive in the Big 12 conference and last season was considered a down one. Now, TCU looks like it got its mojo back as it is undefeated through two games and is back in the AP Top 25 rankings. With a victory in this game, one can expect TCU to move up in the rankings which is important since the grind of the conference schedule will officially start next week. Even though TCU has bigger aspirations than just beating SMU, a victory could be crucial in impacting TCU’s season-long plans.

The starting quarterback for the Horned Frogs is freshman Max Duggan who looked average in the first two games of the season. Specifically, he has thrown for just 235 passing yards and two passing touchdowns with no interceptions. In addition, he has also rushed for a touchdown so he does possess some dual-threat ability. However, he completed less than 39% of his passes last week which is unacceptable moving forward if TCU looks to remain ranked.

TCU’s biggest weapon on offense is senior running back Darius Anderson who has been great so far this season. After a lackluster performance in week one, Anderson exploded against Purdue as he had 179 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on just 16 carries. Anderson helped TCU put the game away late by converting on several crucial first downs to help the Horned Frogs drain the clock in the fourth quarter. If TCU plans on winning this game, Anderson will need to rush for at least 100 yards.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Simply put, I think that TCU is overvalued and should not be expected to win this game by double digits. Even though TCU is now ranked, it beat a Purdue team last week that was missing its star quarterback so I do not believe that this team is as good as advertised. Plus, SMU’s offense has looked unstoppable so far and I think it should be able to score enough points to keep this a one possession game. Give me the road team plus the points.

Prediction: SMU +9.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Both teams are averaging over 36 points per game so I think this total is too low. SMU loves to play at a very fast pace which should lead to more points and more possessions for both sides while TCU possesses a very solid rushing attack that is capable of breaking some long touchdown runs. This game should finish somewhere in the realm of 34-27 so I will take the over.

Prediction: Over 55.5
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Written By Scott Reichel

Scott Reichel is a University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate with an insane passion for sports. His commitment to endlessly researching statistics helps separate him from other handicappers with regard to MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL and NFL coverage. Scott also shares his passion for sports on StatSalt's YouTube page where he does a daily show called Scott's Selections.