Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#345 Toledo -8 vs.
#346 Colorado State 66.5
Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:15pm EDT
Colorado State Stadium, Fort Collins
Written by Adam Rauzino

Stats

Back

Teams
Logo
W/L
ATS
O/U
PPG
OPPG
#345 University of Toledo
#346 Colorado State University
1-1
1-2
-1
1-2
1-0
2-1
34
34
18
39

More

This article covers a past game!

View upcoming games.

The Colorado State Rams will host the Toledo Rockets in week four non-conference play Saturday night from Canvas Stadium. The Rockets blanked Murray State by a 45-7 score last week, and the Rams are coming off a 55-34 road loss to Arkansas. This marks the first meeting between these teams since 1973.

Rockets Cruise to First Win of Season

The Toledo Rockets will be aiming for their second straight win in this clash. The Rockets rebounded from their 38-24 week one road loss to Kentucky by notching an easy 34-7 home win over Murray State of the FCS last week in a game that had Toledo pegged as 37 point favorites. QB Mitchell Guadagni was stellar, collecting 228 passing yards with three touchdowns. The senior QB was quiet in week one against Kentucky, and he has tallied 388 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in two games. Peters split time as the #1 QB last year and he posted a 13:3 TD to INT ratio.

The Rockets feature a terrific rushing offense highlighted by Bryant Koback. The sophomore RB was able to rush for 73 yards against Kentucky of the SEC in the season opener, followed by 62 yards last week after leading Toledo with over 900 yards in 2018.

WR Bryce Mitchell has already surpassed last year’s total of 70 receiving yards with 125 receiving yards in two games, and junior Danzel McKinley-Lewis leads the Rockets with 143 receiving yards. The Rockets offense should have no problem scoring points when MAC play rolls around, and it will be intriguing to see how they fare against a Rams defense that has not looked good.

The Toledo defense surrendered 422 total yards against Kentucky in their season opener, and they easily shut down Murray State last week. The Rockets defense was an issue last year, and if they can improve they will be tough to beat this season. Toledo has scored an average of 34.5 points in two games, good for 46th overall, while conceding an average of 19 points, placing them 43rd in the country.

Rams QB Injured in Blowout Loss to Arkansas

The Colorado State Rams head into their non-conference finale eager to get back on the field after they were clobbered 55-34 by Arkansas of the SEC last week in a game that had CSU as 10 point underdogs. Rams’ QB Collin Hill sustained a torn ACL in the defeat and he is out for the season which is a big hit to the Rams offense. Junior QB Patrick O’Brien is expected to get the start as a result. O’Brien attempted 30 passes as a backup with Nebraska in 2017, and he went 8 for 11 for 135 yards and one touchdown last week.

Watch for Marvin Kinsey Jr. who has been a huge threat on the ground through three games. The senior RB accumulated a dazzling 180 yards on 20 carries against Arkansas, and he has accrued 310 rushing yards to go with 163 receiving yards.

Dante Wright has also been a bright spot in the Rams 1-2 start, recording 277 receiving yards with over 200 yards in his last two games. The Colorado State offense hasn’t been the big issue this season as they have plenty of weapons capable of big damage, but they face a tough task with Hill out for the year.

The Rams defense is scuffling, surrendering over 50 points in two of their three games which included a 52-31 loss to rival Colorado. They conceded 520 total yards to Arkansas last week and while Toledo plays in the MAC, they have offensive talent, so CSU will need to be on their toes. The Rams have averaged 34.3 points in their three games, ranking them 47h overall. They have allowed an average of 40 points, pegging them down at 124th in the FBS.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I am siding with Colorado State in this one. This is a very high spread for Toledo to cover on the road. The Rams were able to score 34 points at Arkansas last week, so they should be able to take advantage of a MAC defense against Toledo. Toledo surrendered 38 points to a subpar Kentucky offense in their first game, and the Rams rank 23rd in the FBS with over 500 total yards per game. While QB Hill is out, Patrick O’Brien has some Big Ten experience and he connected on 8 of his 11 passes last week.

Furthermore, the Rockets offense could have trouble even against a subpar Rams defense. The Rockets leading rusher Bryant Koback is only averaging 4.8 yards per carry for 135 yards, and QB Mitchell Guadagni only has three TD passes. Colorado State won’t be happy after their two losses to Arkansas and Colorado and they know they need to come through with a big home effort against a MAC opponent.

Prediction: Colorado State Rams

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I expect a shootout in this one.  The Rams defense has been exploited this season, and Toledo has the tools to do some damage as well. QB Mitchell Guadagni has completed 67% of his pass attempts and the Rockets have averaged 442 total yards in their two games, plus the over is 4-1 in their last five games overall.

In addition, Colorado can score points. They are averaging a terrific 34.3 points, and their rushing offense was able to record 220 yards last week. Toledo ranks 73rd against the run, so I expect more success on the ground. The over is 6-1 in Toledo’s last seven non-conference games and that trend should continue in this one.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The over on the Rams team total is worth a look. The Rams have the tools to break through this defense. RB Marvin Kinsey Jr. is averaging a sizzling 6.9 yards per attempt, and Toledo’s rush defense ranks down at 73rd overall. Also, the Rams passing game stands 16th in the country. I am confident Rams’ QB Patrick O’Brien will shine in his new starting role after Miller’s injury. O’Brien has Big Ten experience and he looked good last week. 

Prediction: Colorado State Team Total Over

Half-Time Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I expect plenty of offense throughout this game. The Rockets were able to score 14 points in the first half in their season opener on the road against Kentucky so I am confident they can make their presence felt early in this one against a poor defense. Moreover, Colorado State stands 22nd in the nation with an average of 22.5 points in the opening half.

Prediction: Over
Loading...

Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.