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Louisiana Tech vs. LSU,
9-22-2018 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#383 Louisiana Tech
Bulldogs 51.5
#384 LSU
Tigers -19.5

Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 7:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

2 - 0

1-1
ATS
2-0
O/U
41
PPG
21
OPPG

LSU Tigers

3 - 0

2-1
ATS
1-2
O/U
28
PPG
12
OPPG

Betting Trends

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It’s a battle of programs from the Pelican State in non-conference action from week 4 of the college football schedule. The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs make the in-state trip to take on the #6 LSU Tigers Saturday night. Louisiana Tech had last week off: they obliterated Southern 54-17 in their previous contest. LSU remained unbeaten as they upended #7 Auburn 22-21 at the gun on the road last Saturday. The Tigers have won all three previous meetings, including a 24-16 win here in the last matchup back on November 14, 2009.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Look to Take Down Tigers For First Time

Louisiana Tech had an off week last week, which gave them two weeks to prepare for this one. The Bulldogs might need the extra time to deal with the hostile environment they are traveling into for this one. Louisiana Tech bolted to a 21-0 lead and didn’t panic when Southern made it a 21-14 game. The Bulldogs regrouped and outscored the Jaguars 33-3 the rest of the way. Louisiana Tech piled up a 613-286 advantage in total offense and picked up 32 first downs while allowing 17. The defense even added a safety to help add to the point total.

The Bulldogs are 20th in the FBS by averaging 318 yards per game through the air and tied for 41st in the country as they put up 208.5 yards per contest on the ground. Louisiana Tech is 27th in the FBS in scoring offense as they average 42 points a game and stand 51st in scoring defense by allowing 21.5 points per contest. J’Mar Smith is 43 of 66 passing for 589 yards with four touchdowns against three interceptions while adding 62 yards plus a score on the ground. Aaron Allen is three of five for 47 yards plus a score. Jaqwis Dancy leads the team with 20 carries for 211 yards plus four scores while Israel Tucker contributes 25 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown. Rhashid Bonnette has hauled in a team high 11 passes for 155 yards plus a score. Adrian Hardy (nine grabs, 184 yards, TD) and Teddy Veal (seven catches, 126 yards) are good complimentary targets. Bailey Hale has booted 10 of 11 extra points and hit both field goal attempts with a long of 24 this season.

LSU Tigers Shoot for 4-0 Start

LSU entered this season with a ton of uncertainty after seeing two quarterbacks depart the program in a 24 hour span. Instead, the Tigers stunned Auburn on the road on the game’s final play to climb to #6 in the latest poll. LSU trailed 21-10 in the third quarter but scored the game’s final 12 points, including a 42 yard field goal as time expired, to get the win. The Tigers outgained Auburn 370-328, picked up 21 first downs to Auburn’s 19 and controlled the clock by a 35:04 to 24:56 margin. In addition, LSU forced a pair of turnovers while not committing any of their own.

The Tigers are 106th in the FBS in passing offense with 180 yards per contest while ranking 92nd in rushing with 153.7 yards per game on the ground. LSU is 81st in the nation in scoring offense as they put up 28.7 points per contest and 13th as they allow 12.7 points per game. Joe Burrow is 36 of 78 passing for 540 yards with three touchdown passes while adding 56 yards and a score on the ground. Zach Von Rosenberg misfired on his lone pass attempt. Nick Brosette leads the team with 60 carries for 331 yards plus two scores. Clyde Edwards-Helaire contributes 26 carries for 72 yards plus two scores. Justin Jefferson leads the team with 11 receptions for 183 yards this season. Dee Anderson chips in five grabs for 61 yards while Stephen Sullivan has four catches for 66 yards plus a score. Cole Tracy has hit all eight extra point attempts and eight of nine field goal attempts with a long of 54.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

LSU managed to pick up the win over Auburn on the road but they have to avoid a letdown here. The Tigers have to be better than they have been offensively as they have put up an average of only 333.7 yards per game. Louisiana Tech is no slouch and they’ll make the Tigers work. Burrow is going to have to make some plays against a Bulldogs defense that is allowing only 297 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play so far. In the end, the hostile environment of Tiger Stadium helps LSU get control of the game and pick up the victory.

Prediction: LSU Tigers -20

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

It’s going to be interesting to see how both teams can do moving the ball in this one. LSU has struggled moving the ball this season but they’ve benefited from forcing seven turnovers while not committing any this season. Louisiana Tech has averaged 526.5 yards per game in their opening two contests this season but it could be tougher moving the ball against the Tigers. The Bulldogs have to avoid turning the ball over here: they have four giveaways in the first two games.

The under is 7-0 in the Bulldogs’ last 7 games following a ATS win and 5-1 in their last six after a straight up win. LSU has seen the under go 5-1 in their last six after a straight up win, 5-1 in their last six after an ATS win and 4-1-1 in their last six at home against teams with a winning road record. Given the way both defenses have played this season, you have to look at this one going to the under here.

Prediction: Under 50.5

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

LSU had an up and down game against Auburn but came up with the win on the road. Factor in their win over Miami on a neutral field and you have to think that the Tigers have the ability to put up some points. Their high point total of the season so far this year is 33, which came against the Hurricanes. Facing Louisiana Tech’s defense will force Burrow to start hitting some throws instead of trying to rely on the run game and turnovers. This one likely ends up with LSU in the low 30s again, which leaves them just under the number.

Prediction: LSU Tigers Under 35.5 -115

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

LSU’s defense has been a major factor in their 3-0 start. Considering they own a pair of wins over teams that were ranked in the top 10, the Tigers aren’t going to be intimidated by a mid-major program like Louisiana Tech. Ed Orgeron’s defense has been rock solid so far, having allowed a total of 38 points. Fourteen of those points came in garbage time against Miami. The Bulldogs are going to try their best but the Tigers have the edge at intermission.

Prediction: LSU Tigers -11.5

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

LSU has the ability to force turnovers, which can set them up with short fields. The Tigers have seven takeaways in their first three games and have yet to turn the ball over at this point in time. Louisiana Tech has committed four turnovers in the first two games of the season: they are undefeated in part due to forcing five takeaways. The Bulldogs might be able to put some points on the board but LSU’s strong play in all three facets of the game should help push this one over the total at the half.

Prediction: Over 24.5 -110

Half-Time Prop Prediction
Rating:

LSU hasn’t been a big play offensive unit so far this season as they are a more methodical team. The Tigers will pound the ball in a smashmouth manner and force Louisiana Tech to try and stop them from moving the ball. The Bulldogs haven’t faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of LSU in their first two games of the season. Unless one of the teams forces a turnover to set up a quick score, it might take more than six minutes for a team to get on the board here.

Prediction: No to Will Either Team Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game (-115)

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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