Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#389 Bowling Green vs.
#390 Mississippi St
Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 12:00pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

Bowling Green Falcons (1-2) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-1)

Week 4 of the 2022 college football season continues Saturday, September 24, with the interconference showdown from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi, so here’s the best Falcons vs. Bulldogs betting pick along with the latest odds update. 

Bowling Green meets Mississippi State for the first time since 2013 when the Bulldogs narrowly outlasted the Falcons 21-20 as 11.5-point home favorites. Mississippi State is a huge 30-point fave this time around, while the totals are listed at 52.5 points.    

The Falcons shoot for another upset

The Bowling Green Falcons started their 2022 campaign with a couple of straight losses. After suffering a heavy 45-17 defeat at the UCLA Bruins, the Falcons lost an epic seven-overtime clash against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels 59-57. Bowling Green bounced back in Week 3, outlasting the Marshall Thundering Herd 34-31 in overtime as a 17-point home underdog. The Falcons overcame an early 14-point deficit, while senior signal-caller Matt McDonald led the charge, throwing for 282 yards and four touchdowns. 

“We found a way to win, plain and simple,” Bowling Green head coach Scot Loeffler said. “That’s what’s great about these kids ... there’s no quit in this team, and I’m proud of them.”  

Marshall outgained Bowling Green 547-377 in total yards, but the Falcons took good care of the ball while forcing three turnovers on the other side. After yielding a couple of touchdowns in the first quarter, the Falcons played tough defense, finishing with four sacks and seven tackles for loss. On the other side of the ball, senior wideout Odieu Hiliare posted four catches for 79 yards and a pair of scores, and sophomore RB Ta’ron Keith added eight receptions for 62 yards and a TD. 

Through his first three outings in 2022, Matt McDonald has completed 56.3 percent of his passing attempts for 690 yards and ten touchdowns. However, the Falcons are averaging just 87.3 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. Their defense will have to improve, too, after surrendering 45.0 points on 538.3 total yards per game so far this season.

The Bulldogs stumbled at LSU in Week 3

The Mississippi State Bulldogs suffered their first loss of the season in Week 3. They visited LSU as slight 3-point favorites and lost 31-16. With 2:14 left on the clock in the second quarter, the Bulldogs had a 13-0 lead, but it wasn’t enough. They finished the game with just 289 total yards and yielded 416 in a return. Also, the Bulldogs lost the turnover battle 2-1. 

“I thought we were explosive but inconsistent.  How did you do one play after the next after the next?  Pretty good, but then there would be a key play.  And it went around to us offensively, defensively and special teams, which is unfortunate, because we’re explosive just inconsistent,” Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach said. “We’ve got to be a consistent team.  Explosive is fun and you can get on a run, but that will catch up to you if you’re not consistent.  We’ve got to coach consistency.  Start with me.”

Junior QB Will Rogers completed just 24 of his 42 passing attempts in Week 3, tossing for 214 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Sophomore WR Rara Thomas had four receptions for 67 yards and a TD, while junior RB Jo’quavious Marks posted nine totes for 50 yards and a TD. 

In their first two showings in 2022, the Bulldogs have outlasted the Memphis Tigers 49-23 as 17-point home favorites and the Arizona Wildcats 39-17 as 12.5-point road favorites. Will Rodgers has thrown for 977 yards, ten touchdowns, and three interceptions so far this season, while junior RB Dillon Johnson has accounted for 279 yards from scrimmage, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 6.0 per pass.

Best Bets for this Game

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Bulldogs are healthy and ready to bounce back. We all know Mike Leach’s approach, and the Falcons will struggle to cope with the Bulldogs’ passing offense, so give me the hosts and points. Bowling Green’s secondary has struggled through the first three weeks, and I’m expecting more of the same when the Falcons take on Mike Leach’s Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State is 7-3 ATS in its last ten games overall and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games played on Saturday. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the spread in three of their last four outings at home and are 4-0 ATS in their previous four showings as favorites of 30 or more points. On the other side, the Falcons are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games on the road.

Prediction: Take the Mississippi State Bulldogs -30.0 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The Falcons yielded 38 points through four quarters in that tough loss to Eastern Kentucky in Week 2. They allowed 45 points at UCLA in Week 1, so I’m expecting the Bulldogs to hit a 40-point mark in this game. Mississippi State will look to take full advantage of the Falcons’ leaky passing defense. 

Bowling Green will have a chance to get things going on the ground, as Mississippi State allows 4.6 yards per carry. Hereof, I’m looking for a high-scoring affair. The total has gone over in eight of Bowling Green’s last ten contests, while five of Mississippi State’s previous eight games have produced more than 52 points in total.

Prediction: Go over 52.5 points (-110)

Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.