Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#419 New Mexico vs.
#420 LSU
Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 7:30pm EDT
Written by David Delano

The LSU Tigers (2-1) will host the New Mexico Lobos (2-1) on Saturday. The Tigers are a 31.5-point favorite, and the total is 45, which implies it'll be challenging for the Lobos to get more than a touchdown in this game.

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New Mexico has the odds stacked against them

The New Mexico Lobos went 3-9 last season and brought back five starters on offense and seven on defense. Not much was expected from this program as they received by far the fewest votes in the preseason media poll, pegging them to be 12th amongst all teams in the MWC.

The Lobos have been respectable to start this season. They took down Maine 41-0 in their home opener. They lost their conference opener 31-14 against Boise State but beat UTEP 27-10 last week. The Lobos will now head on the road for their next two games, with their biggest test yet waiting for them in Baton Rogue.

For the average football fan, New Mexico isn't going to be the most exciting team to watch. The Lobos offense is 122nd in total yards, with a passing attack 123rd with 126.3 yards per game and 74th with 160 passing yards per game. Their defense has been strong, holding their opponents to 263.3 yards per game which is 15th. They are 11th allowing 75 rushing yards per game, and 35th allowing 188.3 passing yards.

Tune up for LSU

The LSU Tigers are off to a 2-1 start in the first year under Brian Kelly. After losing a wild 24-23 season opener to Florida State on a missed extra point, the Tigers have beaten Southern 65-17 and Mississippi State 31-16. The Tigers outgained the Bulldogs 417 to 289 in total yards last week and held the potent Bulldogs passing attack to 214 yards.

The Tigers racked up 207 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt and three touchdowns. Jayden Daniels went 22 for 37 with 210 yards and one touchdown. He also led the rushing with 93 yards and another score. On the season Daniels, who transferred from Arizona State, has completed 69.5% of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He also leads the team with 225 rushing yards and is second with two scores on the ground.

LSU is 55th in the nation averaging 438.3 yards per game. They are 69th with 246.3 passing yards and 52nd with 192 rushing yards. The defense is 36th holding teams to 314.3 yards per game, 27th allowing 178.3 passing yards per game, and 66th allowing 136 rushing yards per game.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Even with a lackluster offense, New Mexico is 38th in the nation in time of possession and LSU is 80th. The New Mexico Lobos rely on the run, which is an extreme opposite of what the Tigers faced last week against Mississippi State. Southern University however was able to pick up 201 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry against the Tigers this season, which gives me confidence that the Lobos will be able to actually put together get some long successful possessions, at least when it comes to keeping the ball away from LSU. With a low total, one score could be enough for New Mexico to cover. I don't love this play as I actually project LSU to win this game by 31 points, but as long as the hook is there, I'll take New Mexico.

Prediction: New Mexico +31.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Whether it's due to a style LSU has not yet faced or long methodical drives, I see the Lobos getting a score in this game, maybe even two, and if that happens this one should go over with ease.

LSU will get some quicker scores, as New Mexico's defense will not be able to contain the playmakers that LSU has. Jayden Daniels is a dangerous dual threat QB, Aromi Goodwin is averaging 6.7 yards per carry, and wide receivers Malik Nabers and Brain Thomas Jr. have the potential to break off a long touchdown at any time. LSU could get to 45 points alone in this game if that's what they care to do, so I can't take the under with a total this low. Late in the game, I wouldn't be surprised in New Mexico tries some ill-advised pass plays to get back into this, leading to field position and points for LSU.

I will take the over, and expect a 41-10 LSU victory.

Prediction: Over 45
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Written By David Delano , "David Delano"

David Delano is a Bowling Green State University graduate with a passion for sports, traveling, and music. David loves to handicap MLB, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, WNBA, and is also a big fan of boxing and track and field. Over the years, David has worn several hats in the sports world, from being behind the camera to writing, filming, editing, scouting, and coaching, along with servicing his clients as a sports handicapper.  He is also an expert sports bettor. We are glad to have David on our Winners & Whiners team, and we recommend that you follow along with him every day. 

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