Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#375 Southern California (USC) vs.
#376 Oregon State
Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 9:30pm EDT
Written by Mason Folz

This Saturday, the (3-0) #7 USC Trojans and the (3-0) Oregon State Beavers will match up in the fourth week of the 2022 college football season. Kick-off will be at 9:30 PM EST inside Reser Stadium. Both of these teams are undefeated coming into this one, as this will be a true test for both of these teams.

The USC Trojans are coming into this one after blowing out Fresno State, 45-17. The Trojans had it rolling on offense and defense, as they were successfully moving the ball down the field and they forced two turnovers on defense. They will be looking to carry that momentum over into this one.

The Oregon State Beavers are entering this one after a tough game against Montana State. They ended up winning 68-28, as their offense never slowed down. They finished the game with 538 total yards, as they were getting the job done through the air and on the ground.

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Can USC Stay Undefeated?

The USC Trojans have looked great to begin the 2022 season, as Lincoln Riley and the USC coaching staff have continued to set their players up for success. On offense, they are scoring 50.7 points per game and they are averaging 520 total yards of offense. This is the seventh most points scored per game and the 11th most yards, as they have been difficult to stop on offense this season. They are also averaging 318.3 passing yards per game, as Caleb Williams has continued to dominate. The Oklahoma transfer has already thrown for 874 yards this season and eight touchdowns. He hasn't turned the ball over in 2022, either. He will look to get the ball to Jordan Addison, as he is the Trojan's number one receiver. According to ESPN, he has already recorded 295 yards and five touchdowns this season, as Williams continues to look for him. USC can also move the ball on the ground, as they are running for 201.7 yards per game, which is the 44th most. They can move the ball through the air or on the ground, as they keep their opponents on their toes with their play calling. I would also watch for Travis Dye, as he leads the team with 227 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The Trojans will look to stay balanced in this one, as well.

On defense, the Trojans are allowing 19.7 points per game and 380.7 total yards. This is the 46th least amount of points surrendered and the 83rd least amount of yards given up per game. Their secondary has been the strongest part of this defense, as they are only allowing 203.7 passing yards per game. This is the 56th least amount of passing yards given up per game, as they have multiple defensive backs that can play zone or man defense. The Trojans haven't been as solid against the run, though. They are allowing 177 rushing yards per game, which is the 103rd most in college football. They were gashed by Fresno State and Stanford. Fresno State ran for 164 yards and Stanford rushed for 221, as their front seven and linebackers have to be better. I would watch for Eric Gentry in this one, as he leads the team with 17 solo tackles. He has been all over the field to begin this season.

Is Oregon State Legit?

Oregon State has jumped out to a hot start in the 2022 college football season, but now they will have one of their hardest tests. According to Sports Reference, they are scoring 45.7 points per game, and they are averaging 470.7 yards of offense. This is the 13th most points scored per game and the 41st most yards. They have shown that they can consistently pass and run the ball, as Chase Nolan has looked great to begin the season. He has already passed for 746 yards, 7 touchdowns, and only two interceptions. He also has the 13th highest QB rating in the country. Oregon State is averaging 278.3 passing yards per game, which is the 36th most in the nation. Nolan will be looking to get the ball to Tre'Shaun Harrison, as he has been the Beavers' leading receiver in 2022. He has already recorded 219 yards and two touchdowns. Oregon State will also look to run a balanced offense, as they are rushing for 192.3 yards per game. This is the 51st most, as Deshaun Fenwick and the Oregon State running backs have been pounding the rock. Fenwick is the leading rusher on the team, as he has already run for 204 yards and three touchdowns.

On defense, the Beavers are allowing 25.7 points per game and 357.3 yards. This is the 70th most points surrendered and the 64th most yards given up per game. This is a balanced defense, as they have been solid against the run and the pass so far this season. They are currently allowing 215.3 passing yards per game, which is the 67th least in the country. Their secondary held Montana State to just 101 passing yards last week, as they will be coming into this game with confidence. They have struggled against the run, though. They are allowing 142 rushing yards per game, as their front seven and linebacker have to be better. They gave up 178 rushing yards to Fresno State and 168 to Montana State. I would watch for Kitan Oladapo in this one, as he has been one of the best defensive players for Oregon State this season. He has already recorded 16 solo tackles and one sack, which leads his team.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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I will be taking the Trojans and laying the points (-6) on the road in this one. The USC offense is going to be too much for Oregon State to handle, as they have been shredded by the run in the past few weeks. The Trojans will be able to pound the rock against the Beavers, which will open up their play-action passing game. I expect Caleb Williams to come up big in this one, as he has been a part of a lot of big games throughout his career. Now, he has the experience and the team to get the job done. USC is throwing for the 17th most yards and running for the 44th most per game. They will consistently move the ball up and down the field, as their balanced offense will keep Oregon State on their heels. I also see the USC defense coming up big in this one, as they are allowing the 46th least amount of points per game. Oregon State is a good team, but they aren't ready to hang with the big dogs yet. They will struggle to move the ball for the first time this season, as the Trojans will be able to stop their passing attack. USC's secondary is allowing the 56th least amount of yards, as they've got enough talent to man up against these Oregon State receivers. The Beavers will fail to move the ball and the Trojans will slowly pull away throughout this game.

Hammer the Trojans on the road and lay the points (-6).

Prediction: USC -6

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

This pick feels bold, but I'm going to ride with the over (70.5) points in this one. I know that this total feels high, but I am going to trust both of these high-powered offenses. The Trojans are currently scoring 50.7 points per game, which is the seventh most in the country. They will continue to run their balanced offense and march down the field on the Beavers. Pac-12 defenses always seem to struggle, and I see that trend continuing. USC will capitalize on the majority of their possessions, as I just don't see this Oregon State secondary being good enough to slow down USC's receivers. They are giving up the 67th most passing yards per game, as Caleb Williams is going to expose them. The Trojans are throwing for the 17th most yards per game and they have multiple big-name receivers to get the job done. Now, I also see the Beavers scoring enough points to reach the over (70.5). They are scoring the 13th most points per game and they will be able to run the ball all over the Trojans. USC is surrendering the 103rd most rushing yards per game, as the Beavers and Deshaun Fenwick will be able to score enough points to push this total over the number. These are two of the best offenses in the nation and I have never trusted a Pac-12 defense.

Hammer the over (70.5) points and expect some fireworks in this one!

Prediction: Over 70.5
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!