Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#399 Texas vs.
#400 Texas Tech
Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 3:30pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

Texas Longhorns (2-1) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1)

College football action kicks off on Saturday, September 24, with Week 4 matchups around the country, including the marquee Big 12 Conference showdown at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. So, we bring you the best Longhorns vs. Red Raiders betting pick and odds. 

The Longhorns have dominated the Red Raiders of late and will search for their fifth consecutive victory over Texas Tech. Texas is listed as a 6.5-point fave with a total of 60.0 points, while Texas Tech sits at +215 money line odds.  

The Longhorns beat UTSA behind Bijan Robinson’s stellar performance

After a heartbreaking 20-19 defeat to the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 2, the Texas Longhorns improved to 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS on the season with a 41-20 home victory over the UTSA Roadrunners in Week 3. Junior RB Bijan Robinson had a field day against UTSA’s defense, racking up 183 yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries, while junior DB Jahdae Barron scored a 44-yard pick-six to give the Longhorns an 11-point lead at the end of the third quarter.  

“I don't think our team blinked for a second,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “We battled through the early start woes. Sometimes when you run the ball, it doesn't happen right away. Over time it starts to break.” 

The Longhorns missed their starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who suffered a collarbone injury in Week 2 and will sit out the next few weeks. He will dress for this game but is not likely to start. Hudson Card got the starting call under center last weekend, finishing 15-of-23 for 161 yards and a TD. 

Texas will continue to lean on its ground game in Ewers’ absence. Bijan Robinson hopes to keep the good times rolling after posting 311 yards and five touchdowns on 51 totes through the first three weeks of the 2022 CFB season. Last year, Robinson had 195 carries for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns to go with 26 receptions for 295 yards and four scores.

The Red Raiders failed to cope with NC State’s defense

The Texas Tech Red Raiders started their 2022 campaign with a couple of wins, outlasting Murray State 63-10 as 38.5-point home favorites and No. 25 Houston 33-30 in double overtime as 4-point home favorites. They fell to 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS following a 27-14 defeat at No. 16 NC State in Week 3, as the Wolfpack’s defense tortured the Red Raiders. Texas Tech committed four turnovers, including an 84-yard pick-six that made it 20-0 with 4:40 to go in the second quarter.  

"We're going to face some good defenses in the Big 12," first-year Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire said. "I think we have to be better in catching all catchable balls, getting vertical when you catch it. We've got to put ourselves in good situations. ... But there's some stuff that we've got to do as a staff to put these guys in better situations." 

Sophomore QB Donovan Smith went just 21-of-36 for 214 yards, a TD, and a couple of interceptions last weekend. He also had 11 carries for minus-9 yards and a TD. Smith threw for 350 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions in that big victory over Houston, while the Red Raiders averaged just 2.7 yards per rush against the Cougars. Junior RB Tahj Brooks leads their backfield with 27 totes for 132 yards and four touchdowns in 2022. 

At least, the Red Raiders’ defense has done a good job thus far, allowing 82.7 rushing yards (18th in the country) and 211.0 passing yards per game (63rd). Senior DL Tyree Wilson has already accounted for 21 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and 2.5 sacks.

Best Bets for this Game

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Full-Game Side Bet

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In their season opener against Murray State, the Red Raiders lost QB Tyler Shough due to a shoulder injury. Donovan Smith has had ups and downs over his last two starts and will have another tough matchup in Week 4. The Longhorns held Alabama to 20 points, and I’m expecting their defense to make the difference in this matchup. 

On the other side of the ball, the Red Raiders’ run D will be properly tested, as the Longhorns average 170.3 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Texas’ O-line will provide a lot of opportunities for Bijan Robinson to shine, and Robinson had 18 carries for 137 yards against Texas Tech last season. The Longhorns are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Red Raiders.

Prediction: Texas Longhorns -6.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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The total has gone over in the last four encounters between Texas and Texas Tech. Last year, the Longhorns trounced the Red Raiders 70-35 as 9-point home favorites with a total of 62.5 points, while six of their previous seven meetings have produced more than 60 points in total. 

Despite the head-to-head betting trends, I’m not expecting a firecracker this time around. Without Quinn Ewers under center, the Longhorns will look to run as much as possible and control the clock, while their defense will be focused on Donovan Smith and the Red Raiders’ passing offense. The under is 4-1 in the Longhorns’ last five games overall, and it is 6-2 in their previous eight contests played on Saturday.

Prediction: Under 60.0 points (-110)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.