Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#395 Vanderbilt vs.
#396 Alabama
Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 7:30pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

Vanderbilt Commodores (3-1) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)

Another frenzy Saturday college football is upon us, bringing plenty of interesting matchups around the country. It’s Week 4 of the 2022 CFB season, and we have prepared the best Commodores vs. Crimson Tide betting pick and odds for the Southeastern Conference showdown at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.   

Vanderbilt meets Alabama for the first time since 2017 when the Crimson Tide trounced the Commodores 59-0 as 19.5-point road favorites. Bama is a heavy 40.5-point home fave this time around, while the totals sit at 59.0 points.

The Commodores beat NIU to get back on the winning track

The Vanderbilt Commodores upset the odds in Week 3, outlasting the Northern Illinois Huskies 38-28 as 2.5-point road underdogs. They overcame a 14-point second-half deficit, dropping 24 unanswered points on NIU. The Commodores outgained the Huskies 428-354 in total yards and converted seven of their 14 third downs. Also, they were 2-for-2 on the fourth down. 

Freshman signal-caller AJ Swann got the starting call over junior Mike Wright and put on a show at Huskie Stadium. Swann completed 18 of his 28 passing attempts for 255 yards and four touchdowns including a couple of fourth-quarter connections with junior WR Will Sheppard, who finished the game with ten catches for 171 yards and two scores. 

"We weren't playing well enough on offense in previous games to not look at what we could do to move forward," Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea said. "We knew we had to open up and see if there was an answer for us. We've seen (AJ) in practice. He's been a consistent playmaker for us in practice and a guy that has shown command of an offense. I'm pleased that he was able to show up today." 

Back in Week 3, Swan relieved Wright in a 45-25 defeat at Wake Forest. He went 8-of-11 for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Commodores started their 2022 campaign in week zero, so they’ve already played four games this season, going 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS in the process. Vanderbilt is scoring 42.0 points per game (tied-21st in the country) on 219.5 passing yards (93rd) and 217.3 rushing yards (tied-28th), and senior RB Re’Mahn Davis is leading the way with 469 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns. 

The Tide cruised through Week 3

After surviving Week 2 matchup against Texas on the road, the Alabama Crimson Tide steamrolled UL Monroe in Week 3. The Tide barely outlasted the Longhorns 20-19 as 21.5-point favorites, so they were highly motivated in a 63-7 thrashing of the Warhawks. Alabama outgained UL Monroe 509-169 in total yardage and easily covered a 49.5-point spread. 

“Obviously, a lot of good things out there today. We scored on defense, scored a couple of times on special teams, and had 262 yards in punt returns. We made plays on offense, started a little slow, but got better as it went. Defensively, I think we did a pretty good job and made some progress,” Alabama head coach Nick Saban said. “There's some evidence out there that this is the standard that we want to play to, but I think everybody's got to judge what do we need to do to continue to improve with SEC play starting next week. So, it's going to take a little better effort on everybody's part to play with consistency.” 

Bryce Young threw his first two interceptions of the season in Week 3. He also completed 13 passing attempts for 236 yards and three touchdowns, so junior QB now has 644 yards, nine touchdowns, and a pair of picks in 2022. 

Junior RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who transferred from Georgia Tech this spring, has 295 yards from scrimmage and a couple of touchdowns. Traeshon Holden has 12 receptions for 169 yards and three scores, and junior wideout posted three catches for 60 yards and a TD in that comfortable victory over the Warhawks. WR Tyler Harrell missed Week 3 due to a foot injury and is questionable to play against the Commodores.

Best Bets for this Game

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Full-Game Side Bet

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The Commodores’ defense won’t be able to contain the Crimson Tide, who lead the nation with 7.5 yards per carry. Also, Vanderbilt surrenders 274.0 passing yards per contest and will struggle against Bryce Young and Alabama’s receiving corps. 

On the other side of the ball, the Tide allows just 225.3 total yards per game and a paltry 2.1 yards per carry. Vanderbilt leans on its ground game, and the Commodores will have a mountain to climb when they face off against the Tide’s mighty defensive line. Alabama is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Vanderbilt and 13-3 ATS in its previous 16 home games played on Saturday.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -40.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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The Tide will look to keep the good times rolling after blanking the UL Monroe Warhawks in the previous week. However, the Commodores are a much better offensive team than the Warhawks, so I’m expecting the visitors to find the end zone a couple of times and help the over backers. 

Also, the Crimson Tide could easily hit a 50-point mark on their own. The under is 4-1 in their previous five games, but the total has gone over in 13 of Bama’s last 20 contests in September and six of its last nine encounters with the SEC East Division. On the other side, the Commodores’ previous five tilts have gone over the total.

Prediction: Go over 59.0 points (-110)

Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.