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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas,
9-29-2018 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#189 Oklahoma State
Cowboys -17
#190 Kansas
Jayhawks 61

Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 12:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Oklahoma State Cowboys

3 - 1

2-2
ATS
1-2
O/U
43
PPG
22
OPPG

Kansas Jayhawks

2 - 2

2-2
ATS
1-2
O/U
28
PPG
18
OPPG

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Oklahoma State travels to Kansas on Saturday afternoon in a Big 12 Matchup at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kansas. The Cowboys are coming off a very tough home loss to Texas Tech. The Jayhawks’ brief successful stretch came to a screeching halt in their conference opener. Okie State has taken down Kansas in eight straight meetings (6-2 ATS). Last season, Oklahoma State destroyed the Jayhawks, 58-17 at home. 

Cowboys get stunned in blowout loss to Red Raiders

Oklahoma State has one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 539.2 yards per game (11th nationally). That was stunningly held in check when Texas Tech visited last week. They totaled just 386 total yards, converted 3-of-13 third downs, and had almost half the first downs that the Red Raiders collected. They also had the ball for a pathetic 18:43, which is never a good thing for your defense, who likely wore down after being on the field for over 41 minutes. At the end of the day, the Cowboys fell at home 41-17, which is an interesting result just a week after dominating Boise State.

Quarterback Taylor Cornelius is now completing just under 60 percent of his passes and has an adequate ratio of eight touchdowns to four picks. Running back Justice Hill remains a beast, going past the century mark for the third time this season (111 yards on 12 carries, 388 total yards this season). The defense continues to allow a lot of yards in the air — 265.8 yards per game. That may not be a huge factor against a mediocre Kansas passing offense.

Jayhawks return from Cloud Nine in bad loss to the Bears

In a battle of the projected last two teams in the Big 12, Kansas looks to remain the doormat of the conference. They were 23-0 at half and never recovered in an eventual loss to 26-7 against Baylor. Even with their recent success against mediocre teams, the offense hasn’t been great. Over the first four games of the season, they have averaged just 357.8 yards (103rd overall) with most of that production coming on the ground.

The Jayhawks will need to find a way to get the ball in the air to compete in the conference. Luckily, they’ll take on an opponent that has this very weakness. Quarterback Peyton Bender has seen the most production under center this season, completing 60 percent of his passes and recording 495 yards with 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. For the Jayhawks to gain the upset, he has to take advantage of the Oklahoma State secondary.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

The Cowboys were only a 15-point favorite when the line opened, but that’s growing considerably as people assume they’ll be too much to handle for the Jayhawks. They’re right — Kansas will be unable to exploit their opponent’s weakness and this should be a blowout.  At some point, Kansas will turn things around in the conference and just outside of it. But when it comes down to it, they don’t yet have the talent on offense to keep up with teams like Oklahoma State, who averages over 180 yards more per game than the Jayhawks.

Prediction: Oklahoma State -18

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Kansas only allows 332.5 yards and 18.2 points per game, which are both ranked in the top quarter nationally, but they’ve faced some really awful opponents in their non-conference slate. While OSU should take advantage of that, KU’s meager offense will likely keep this lower.

Prediction: Under

Brian Spaen

Blogging journeyman and sports handicapper. His passion for statistics, analyzing team reports, and watching multiple hours of sports daily gives him an edge for picking who will beat the spread. Also writes about technology and video games. Hobbies include enjoying life in the big city, spending way too much time on YouTube, and discovering new craft beer and whisky.

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