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Arkansas vs. Texas A&M,
9-29-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#211 Arkansas
Razorbacks 60.5
#212 Texas A&M
Aggies -19

Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 12:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Arkansas Razorbacks

1 - 3

1-3
ATS
0-3
O/U
25
PPG
32
OPPG

Texas A&M Aggies

2 - 2

4-0
ATS
2-1
O/U
38
PPG
22
OPPG

Betting Trends

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The Texas A&M Aggies will collide with the Arkansas Razorbacks in an SEC showdown Saturday afternoon from AT&T Stadium in Dallas. The Razorbacks dropped a 31-3 road decision to Auburn in their previous contest, and the Aggies were defeated 45-23 decision by #1 Alabama last week. Texas A&M notched a 50-43 overtime road win against Arkansas last season.

Razorbacks Stifled by Auburn Defense in SEC Opener

The Arkansas Razorbacks opened their SEC schedule with a rough 34-3 road loss to #9 Auburn last week. Ty Storey struggled, completing only 13 of 31 passes for 141 yards and one INT. The junior QB got the start after Cole Kelley tossed four INT’s against North Texas in week two. Kelly and Storey have combined for 6:7 TD to INT ratio in four games this season. Razorbacks’ leading rusher Devwah Whaley contributed with 26 rushing yards on eight carries against the tough Auburn defense, and he now has 231 rushing yards on the season. La’Michael Pettway was held to zero receiving yards last week, and he leads the Razorbacks with 173 receiving yards and three TD’s on the season. The Arkansas offense has struggled in two straight games which included a 44-17 loss to North Texas in week three. They will need a more consistent performance from their QB’s going forward.

The Razorbacks defense was solid last week, holding Auburn to only 225 total yards and three offensive touchdowns. While Arkansas will give up yards in the air, they were much better defending the pass against Auburn. They have now dropped three straight games which included a 34-27 road loss to Colorado State. The Razorbacks are scoring an average of 25.5 points, ranking them 93rd overall. They are allowing an average of 33 points, pegging them 101st in the country.

Aggies Fall to #1 Alabama in SEC Opener

The Texas A&M Aggies are glad to have the toughest portion of their schedule out of the way. They were very competitive in a tough 28-26 loss to #2 Clemson in week two, and they are coming off a 45-23 road loss to #1 Alabama. Kellen Mond struggled against Alabama’s vaunted defense, notching 196 passing yards with one TD against two INT’s. The sophomore QB was terrific in the Aggies’ first three games which included three TD’s against Clemson, and he has tallied 1020 passing yards with a 7:2 TD to INT ratio on the season. The potent Trayveon Williams did not see a whole lot of action against Alabama, amassing 31 rushing yards on eight carries. The junior RB is one of the best college running backs in the country, and he has delivered this season, accumulating 430 rushing yards in four games. Overall, the Aggies offense has fared well this season considering they have already battled the two best defensive teams in the country, and they are averaging a stellar 246 rushing yards per game.

The Aggies defense could not contain Crimson Tide’ QB Tua Tagovailoa last week, surrendering 387 passing yards to him. Their pass defense has been their biggest weakness on defense, ranking 115th overall. They do feature a stellar rush defense that held Alabama to 109 rushing yards last week. Texas A&M is currently averaging 39 points, ranking them 35th in the country. They are holding opponents to an average of 22.5 points, positioning them 50th overall.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

I am taking Texas A&M in this matchup.  Texas A&M is battled tested with contests against both Alabama and Clemson already this season. The Aggies are averaging a sizzling 300 passing yards per game, and they are lined up against an Arkansas pass defense that ranks down at 102nd in the nation. In addition, the Aggies also feature the 21st ranked rushing offense led by Trayveon Williams. Furthermore, the Razorbacks have received very little offense this season, and both their pass and rushing offense rank down at 84th in the country. The Razorbacks passing game has struggled as their two QB’s Ty Storey and Cole Kelley have combined to throw nine interceptions this season. This is a game the Aggies should take by big points.

Prediction: Texas A&M Aggies -20

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

The over is a solid option in this matchup. Texas A&M is averaging a sizzling 545 yards per game, and they are up against an Arkansas defense that has struggled against the pass. The Aggies did manage 23 points against the Alabama defense, and 28 points against Clemson, so I expect a high output a weak Razorbacks defense, plus the over is 5-1 in the Aggies’ last six games overall. The Aggies defense has struggled against the pass this season, and they allowed 501 total yards against Arkansas last season. The over has converted in five out of the last seven meetings between these two SEC foes, and I anticipate another high scoring battle in this one.

Prediction: Over 60

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

I do not expect a ton of points from Arkansas in this one. The Razorbacks have only scored a combined 20 points in their last two games which included only 17 points on their home field against North Texas of the C-USA conference. Arkansas is only averaging 374 total yards per game, ranking them 98th in the country, and they are playing in front of a tough Texas A&M home crowd.

Prediction: Arkansas Team Total: Under 20.5

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

I am taking Texas A&M on the halftime line. The Razorbacks have been outscored by a large 51-10 margin in their last two games against North Texas and Auburn. Furthermore, the Aggies are averaging a solid 19 points in the first half which is a strong accomplishment considering they have already played Clemson and Alabama.

Prediction: Texas A&M -12.5

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

I am taking the over on the halftime total. The Aggies have conceded more points in the first half this season, which included 31 points in the first half against Alabama last week. The Razorbacks best chance to score could be in the first half. I expect steady scoring from Texas A&M throughout this one.

Prediction: Over 32

Half-Time Prop Prediction
Rating:

I am taking the under on the Razorbacks first quarter team total. Arkansas has only scored a combined seven points in the first quarter in their last three games, and they have been outscored 27-0 in the first quarter in their last two games.

Prediction: Arkansas First Quarter Team Total: Under

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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