Upcoming Free Picks

Florida vs. Mississippi St,
9-29-2018 - Prediction & Preview

This is a past game! View all upcoming games instead!

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#193 Florida
Gators 52.5
#194 Mississippi St
Bulldogs -7

Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 6:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Florida Gators

3 - 1

3-1
ATS
1-2
O/U
40
PPG
15
OPPG

Mississippi St Bulldogs

3 - 1

3-1
ATS
1-2
O/U
39
PPG
13
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAF

No betting trends available for this game. Click here to see all available for NCAAF.

Florida Gators head coach Dan Mullen will be facing his former team when the Mississippi State Bulldogs host Saturday evening’s festivities at Davis Wade Stadium. Florida has bounced back from a loss to Kentucky with victories over Colorado State and Tennessee. The Bulldogs had been undefeated before succumbing at Kentucky this past weekend.

Let’s be Franks

Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks was a one-play wonder for all intents and purposes as a freshman last season. He famously beat Tennessee on a last-second Hail Mary but was otherwise unspectacular, with nine passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. In year two, Franks is putting it all together. The Crawfordville, Fla. native has accounted for 13 total touchdowns (12 passing) while throwing just two picks through four outings. He accounted for four scores in the rematch against Tennessee last Saturday, a commanding 47-21 romp by the Gators. Franks attempted just 18 passes as his team basically led from start to finish, but he finished with 172 yards and three TDs through the air. He has tossed multiple scoring strikes in all four games this season.

“Three touchdowns by our receivers,” Mullen said after Freddie Swain, Tyrie Cleveland, and tight end R.J. Raymond were on the receiving end of Franks’ touchdowns. “And Feleipe broke his (touchdown) mark from last year.”

Still, Florida is just 10th in the SEC in total offense this year (10th in passing, ninth in rushing). The Gators scored only 16 points in a loss to Kentucky, currently on paper the best team they have faced in 2018. Franks completed fewer than half of his attempts (17 of 38) during that setback.

https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/1045448001840275457

Shooting themselves in the foot

Mississippi State had been undefeated at 3-0 before taking one on the chin in the form of a 28-7 loss at Kentucky last Saturday. Unbelievably, the Bulldogs had almost as many penalty yards (139) as total yards (201). They committed 16 penalties and gained only 56 yards on the ground on 28 rushing attempts (an anemic 2.0 average). MSU’s offensive line failed to block for the running game or protect quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who completed just half of his passes (16 of 32) for 145 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.

“You can’t let the same game beat you twice,” head coach Joe Moorhead said, referring to the importance of putting the loss to Kentucky behind them and preparing for Florida. “You have to have a short memory. Everything that we want to achieve as a team is still in front of us. We have our goals and we have two choices: either lay down on the mat and get counted out or stand up, dust yourself off and get back in the middle of the ring. We’ll get back in the middle of the ring.”

The offensive line must get better if Moorhead is going to see the overall improvement for which he hopes. Fitzgerald has already been sacked five times in 2018 after getting brought down just seven times throughout the entirety of last season. Being under pressure is part of the reason why he has completed only 41 of 80 pass attempts. Discipline must also improve. In Mississippi States other contest against tough competition (vs. Kansas State), it committed 11 penalties for 84 yards.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Fitzgerald has not been able to do much through the air so far this year, but he has rushed for five touchdowns in three games (he missed the opener against Stephen F. Austin). The Bulldogs are No. 3 in the SEC in rushing yards per game and they are leading the conference in yards per carry at 6.6. Florida, on the other hand, has not done a whole lot in either offensive department even though Franks is showing obvious signs of improvement. But ultimately, Fitzgerald should be able to run over Florida’s defense that is better against the pass (150.5ypg) than against the run (189.8ypg).

Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Mississippi State is more than capable of moving the ball, but penalties and a struggling offensive line are causing problems at the moment. MSU’s best strength is its rushing attack, but Florida held Tennessee to a dreadful 2.9 yards per attempt on the ground last weekend. The under is 14-4 in the Gators’ last 18 after scoring more than 40 points in their previous outing. It is also 5-1 in the Bulldogs’ last six overall, 7-3 in their last 10 at home, 5-1 in their last six against the SEC, and 5-2 in their last seven against winning opponents. Additionally, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams. Look for this one to stay under the total.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

Can the Gators put up more than three touchdowns on Mississippi State? They blasted Tennessee for 47 points last week, but the Volunteers may be the worse team in the entire SEC. Against a real opponent in Kentucky, Florida scored a grand total of 16 points–and that was at home.

Prediction: Florida under 21.5 points

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

Mississippi State held a players-only meeting this week in advance of Saturday’s shown. Will it help? Not matter? Hurt? Only time will tell, but it probably couldn’t have hurt. “I think what we covered in there was necessary,” Fitzgerald explained. “I think it was pretty obvious what we had to cover but it needed to be said, it needed to be brought up and brought to light and just put into the open so people can accept it and get over what they did and put those emotions they were playing with aside and just focus on football.” Look for the Bulldogs to get off to a fast start.

Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs -4.5

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

Fitzgerald has completed just 51.3 percent of his passes (compared to his career mark of 54.9) and he threw an interception against Kentucky that ended his team’s chances. Mississippi State’s offensive line struggled while blocking for Kylin Hill and Aeris Williams, who had little room to put up any numbers. The OL combined for six false starts as MSU averaged just 2.0 yards per carry.

Prediction: Under 26

Ricky Dimon

A 2006 graduate of Davidson College, Ricky is a freelance sports writer based in Atlanta, Georgia. He has previously worked with various websites in the sports handicapping industry and is generally a fan of going with the hot hand while in most cases showing a willingness to take favorites and give the points. Beyond the four major sports, Ricky is an avid tennis fan—and writer—and covers the ATP Tour on a daily basis.

Login

Forgot Password?
Forgot your password? Enter your email and we'll send you a reset token:

Return to login
Enter the token from your email and a new password. Don't forget to check your spam folder if you didn't get the email.

Upcoming Free Picks

Saturday, Feb 16
NCAAB
#611 NC State
#612 Duke
6:00pm
View Pick
#693 LSU -8
#694 Georgia 154
6:00pm
View Pick
#695 Memphis 148
#696 UCF -5.5
6:00pm
View Pick
#697 Temple 148
#698 USF -1
6:00pm
View Pick
#699 Illinois - Chicago -1
#700 Youngstown State 148
6:00pm
View Pick
#701 Iowa -3.5
#702 Rutgers 149
6:00pm
View Pick
#703 Eastern Michigan 135.5
#704 Kent State -3.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#705 Hofstra -9.5
#706 UNCW 162
7:00pm
View Pick
#707 William & Mary -4.5
#708 Elon 143.5
7:00pm
View Pick
#717 IUPUI -3
#718 Cleveland State 149
7:00pm
View Pick
#719 Fresno State -2
#720 New Mexico 147
7:00pm
View Pick
#721 Boise State 138
#722 San Diego State -5
7:00pm
View Pick
#723 Oakland University -1
#724 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 145
7:00pm
View Pick
#737 Delaware 136
#738 James Madison -2
8:00pm
View Pick
#735 DePaul 144.5
#736 Butler -6.5
8:00pm
View Pick
#733 Bradley 132
#734 Illinois State -4
8:00pm
View Pick
#731 Tennessee 146
#732 Kentucky -4
8:00pm
View Pick
#727 Washington -7.5
#728 Washington State 145
8:00pm
View Pick
#725 UL Monroe 163
#726 UL Lafayette -1
8:00pm
View Pick
#729 USC -7
#730 California 150.5
8:00pm
View Pick
#739 Northwestern 127
#740 Nebraska -5
8:30pm
View Pick
#741 Mississippi St -1.5
#742 Arkansas 149
8:30pm
View Pick
#743 Pacific 131.5
#744 Santa Clara 131.5
9:00pm
View Pick
#755 Gonzaga
#756 San Diego
10:00pm
View Pick
#759 Nevada
#760 Wyoming
10:00pm
View Pick
#757 Arizona State 154
#758 Utah -1
10:00pm
View Pick
#749 UCSB 125
#750 Cal Irvine -6.5
10:00pm
View Pick
#753 San Francisco
#754 Portland
10:00pm
View Pick
#751 UCLA 150.5
#752 Stanford 150.5
10:00pm
View Pick
#747 Long Beach State 143
#748 UC Davis -5
10:00pm
View Pick
#745 Cal State Fullerton -1.5
#746 Cal State Northridge 151.5
10:00pm
View Pick
#761 Oregon 131
#762 Oregon State -1.5
10:30pm
View Pick
#763 Pepperdine 145.5
#764 St Marys -13
11:00pm
View Pick
#765 Cal Riverside
#766 Hawaii
11:55pm
View Pick
NHL
#7 Edmonton 5.5
#8 N.Y. Islanders -215
7:05pm
View Pick
#9 Toronto -170
#10 Arizona 6
7:05pm
View Pick
#11 Ottawa 6.5
#12 Winnipeg -215
7:05pm
View Pick
#13 Montreal 6
#14 Tampa Bay -215
7:05pm
View Pick
#15 Dallas 5.5
#16 Carolina -140
8:05pm
View Pick
#17 Columbus -130
#18 Chicago 6.5
8:35pm
View Pick
#19 Nashville 5.5
#20 Vegas -125
10:05pm
View Pick
#21 Vancouver 6.5
#22 San Jose -245
10:05pm
View Pick
#23 Boston -145
#24 Los Angeles 5.5
10:35pm
View Pick
Sunday, Feb 17
NCAAB
#815 Tulsa
#816 East Carolina
2:00pm
View Pick
#817 George Mason
#818 St. Bonaventure
2:00pm
View Pick
#819 Houston
#820 Tulane
2:00pm
View Pick
#821 Seton Hall
#822 Creighton
3:00pm
View Pick
#827 Villanova
#828 St. John's
5:00pm
View Pick
#829 Miami - FL
#830 Boston College
6:00pm
View Pick
#831 Arizona
#832 Colorado
8:00pm
View Pick
NHL
#33 Montreal
#34 Florida
7:05pm
View Pick