It’s a matchup of SEC West Division foes down in the bayou in week 5 college football action. The Ole Miss Rebels are on the road as they travel to face the #5 LSU Tigers Saturday night. Ole Miss bounced back from their trouncing at the hands of #1 Alabama by beating Kent State 38-17 at home last Saturday. LSU remained unbeaten as they defeated Louisiana Tech 38-21 in a non-conference in-state battle last Saturday. The Tigers lead the all-time series between the teams by a 59-38-4 margin and have taken the last two meetings. That includes a 40-24 win on the road in the last meeting, which took place on October 21, 2017.
Ole Miss Rebels Seek Road Win in Conference Play
Ole Miss had a sluggish start against Kent State but they managed to regroup and come up with the victory in the contest. The Rebels improved to 3-1 on the season but they were trounced in their lone conference contest this season. Ole Miss was tied at seven at the half before taking the lead for good just 1:40 into the second half at 14-7. The Rebels didn’t see the Golden Flashes draw closer than four the rest of the way. Ole Miss rolled up a 651-390 edge in total offense, picked up 26 first downs while allowing 23 and won the time of possession battle 32:08 to 27:52 in the game. The Rebels forced two turnovers while committing one in the contest.
The Rebels have had little problem moving the all last season through the air, averaging 347.5 yards per contest through the air, which is 10th in the FBS. The run game is lacking a bit as the team average 175.2 yards per game, putting them 69th in the nation. Ole Miss is 21st in the nation in scoring offense as they put up 42 points a game and a dismal 112th in scoring defense as they allow 36.8 points per contest. Jordan Ta’amu has hit 80 of 125 throws for 1,359 yards with 10 touchdowns against three picks while adding 24 yards and a score on the ground. Matt Corral is one of two for 31 yards while adding a rushing touchdown. Scottie Phillips is the team’s leading rusher with 62 carries for 467 yards and five scores. Tylan Knight is next in line with 19 carries for 107 yards. In the passing game, A.J. Brown leads the team with 26 grabs for 381 yards and three scores. D.K. Metcalf (18 receptions, 368 yards, four TD) and DaMarkus Lodge (13 catches, 184 yards) help comprise one of the nation’s best receiving units. Luke Logan has hit 19 of 20 extra points and five of six field goals with a long of 39. Patrick Nasiatka and Isaac Way each has converted their lone extra point attempt on the year.
LSU Tigers Trying to Remain Unbeaten
LSU remained unbeaten as they turned away an upset bid by Louisiana Tech at home. The Tigers now look to remain unbeaten as they take on another conference opponent here. LSU led just 24-21 in the fourth quarter before scoring a pair of touchdowns in the final 8:06 of the contest. The Tigers were outgained 417-409 in the game while picking up a 25-21 edge in first downs. LSU held a 32:14 to 27:46 edge in time of possession and forced two turnovers in the game while committing only one. The Bayou Bengals are going to have to be better offensively in order to maintain their standing in the top five.
The Tigers are 106th in the FBS in passing offense with 182.8 yards per contest while ranking 74th in rushing with 169.8 yards per game on the ground. LSU is tied for 65th in the nation in scoring offense as they put up 31 points per contest and 15th as they allow 14.8 points per game. Joe Burrow is 52 of 106 passing for 731 yards with three touchdown passes while adding 58 yards and a score on the ground. Zach Von Rosenberg misfired on his lone pass attempt. Nick Brosette leads the team with 83 carries for 409 yards plus five scores. Clyde Edwards-Helaire contributes 46 carries for 208 yards plus four scores. Justin Jefferson leads the team with 13 receptions for 195 yards this season. Dee Anderson chips in 10 grabs for 141 yards while Stephen Sullivan has six catches for 93 yards plus a score. Cole Tracy has hit all 13 extra point attempts and nine of 10 field goal attempts with a long of 54.
- Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games
- Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
LSU has shown a ton of grit on the defensive side of the ball and that’s a major reason that they are undefeated. The Tigers have held opposing run games to 91.3 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry so far this season. LSU has forced nine turnovers and if they can keep Ole Miss one dimensional, it works in their favor. The Rebels have been singed defensively this season, giving up better than 502 yards per game so far. The Tigers should take advantage of the soft defense and get the victory at home here.
Prediction: LSU Tigers -10
Full-Game Total Pick
We saw Ole Miss’s conference opener go about as poorly as one could draw up as they were trounced 62-7 at home by #1 Alabama. Take note that the contest took place in Oxford as opposed to Tuscaloosa. The Rebels now have to go on the road and take on a LSU team that already owns a neutral site win over Miami and a road win over Auburn. Both of those teams were ranked in the top 10 at the time. Can the Tigers continue their resurgence even with a middling offensive attack?
The under is 4-1 in the Rebels’ last 5 games on grass and 40-18-1 in their last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. LSU has seen the under go 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 21-8-1 in their last 30 conference games. This one likely falls under the total as LSU’s defense carries the day once again in this one.
Prediction: Under 60.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
LSU had their problems offensively even last week against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers set a season high in points with 38 but they needed two touchdowns in the final eight plus minutes to get there after Louisiana Tech drew within three points early in the fourth quarter. Ole Miss was destroyed by Alabama, giving up 49 first half points en route to their 62-7 shellacking but they’ve been okay otherwise. The Rebels aren’t facing an explosive offense here, which should work in their favor as far as keeping the score down. The Tigers end up under the number here unless they can get something going in the passing game.
Prediction: LSU Tigers Under 35.5 -120
Half-Time Side Pick
Ole Miss has gotten off to slow starts in each of their last two games. After scoring on the first play from scrimmage against Alabama, the Rebels did nothing in the rest of the first half against the Crimson Tide to trail 49-7. Against Kent State, the Rebels were tied at seven at the half against a team that they should have dusted early. Those kinds of starts don’t bode well against a stingy LSU defense that makes teams work for every yard, much less points. The Tigers should keep Ole Miss in check early and take the edge at the half.
Prediction: LSU Tigers -6.5
Half-Time Total Bet
As we just discussed, Ole Miss has had problems in the first half in their last two contests. The Rebels did nothing against Alabama: against Kent State, they moved the ball but came up empty repeatedly in the opening half before things suddenly clicked after intermission. LSU is a methodical team that will try to grind you down with the run to set up a short passing game. You’re not expecting Burrow to go deep in this one to hit big plays. This one should be a struggle early on and that keeps it under the total at the half.
Prediction: Under 31 -110
Half-Time Prop Prediction
We know that Ole Miss can score in a hurry as evidenced by their quick strike against the Crimson Tide. Unfortunately for the Rebels, that proved to be the highlight of the night in that game. LSU isn’t prone to putting points up in a hurry unless it’s set up by a turnover. The Tigers will try to wear down Ole Miss defensively to set things up for the later stages of the contest. The Rebels will attempt to get a quick score but I think that the defenses win out, keeping this one scoreless as the clock winds down toward the nine minute mark of the opening quarter.
Prediction: No to Will Either Team Score in the First 5 1/2 Minutes of the Game -115