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Nevada vs. Air Force,
9-29-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#147 Nevada
Wolf Pack 66
#148 Air Force
Falcons -4

Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 4:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Nevada Wolf Pack

2 - 2

1-3
ATS
2-1
O/U
40
PPG
39
OPPG

Air Force Falcons

1 - 2

2-1
ATS
2-0
O/U
32
PPG
24
OPPG

Betting Trends

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The Air Force Falcons will attempt to snap a two-game skid when they host the Nevada Wolfpack in a Mountain West Conference clash Saturday afternoon from Falcon Stadium. The Wolfpack are coming off a 66-43 road loss to Toledo, and the Falcons fell 42-32 at Utah State in their previous action. Air Force recorded a 45-42 road win against Nevada last season. 

Nevada Surrenders 63 Points in Loss to Toledo

The Nevada Wolfpack head into conference play on a sour note after falling 63-44 in Toledo last week to fall to 2-2. Ty Gangi was solid, amassing 320 passing yards with one TD against one INT. The senior QB attempts a ton of passes on a pass-heavy offense, and he has tallied 1073 passing yards with a 7:5 TD to INT ratio on the season. Toa Taua was a bright spot in the loss to Toledo, accumulating 170 rushing yards and three TD’s. The freshman running back is off to a terrific start to his collegiate career, rushing for 331 yards in his first four games. The Wolfpack feature two talented receivers which includes McLane Mannix and Kaleb Fossum. Mannix has notched 358 receiving yards on the season, while Fossum has brought in 351 yards. Nevada is having no trouble scoring points this season, and they will need to continue their high output to compensate for a weak defense.

The Nevada defense has been a glaring weakness this season. They surrendered 63 points on 460 total yards against Toledo last week, and they are having big difficulties defending the pass, while their rush defense has been mediocre. The Wolfpack are currently averaging 40.8 points per game, good for 29th in the nation. Nevada is allowing an average of 39.5 points, pegging them down at 120th overall.

Falcons’ Defense Falters in MWC Opening Loss

The Air Force Falcons opened MWC play with a 42-32 road loss to a solid Utah State team last week. Isaiah Sanders didn’t generate a ton of offense, notching 125 passing yards with zero TD’s, and he added 58 rushing yards on 26 carries. The junior QB has already rushed the ball 44 times in his two games played, and he has tallied 289 passing yards with a 1:1 TD to INT ratio. Falcons’ top rusher Cole Fagan contributed with 62 rushing yards last week. The junior fullback is averaging a solid 4.1 yards per carry for a total of 209 yards in three games. Marcus Bennett is the only Falcons player with over 100 receiving yards on the season. The senior WR has collected 186 receiving yards in three games.  Air Force generates most of their offense on the ground with a running game that ranks sixth in the nation.

The Air Force defense had some trouble against the potent Utah State offense, surrendering 489 total yards. They have struggled against the pass through three games which included 471 passing yards in a 33-27 loss to FAU in their second game. The Falcons are currently averaging 32.3 points, ranking them 60th overall. Air Force is allowing an average of 25 points, positioning them 69th overall.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

I am taking the points with Nevada in this contest. Nevada features a potent passing game that ranks 28th in the country with an average of 289 passing yards per game, and they will be up against a struggling Air Force secondary. Air Force is conceding an average of 290 passing yards per game, so I anticipate a big game from Wolfpack QB Ty Gangi who has accumulated 1073 passing yards on the season. Furthermore, Air Force focuses primarily on their running game to manufacture a good portion of their offense, and they will have to solve a decent Nevada rush defense that is limiting the opposition to 154 rushing yards per game.

Prediction: Nevada Wolfpack +4.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

The over is a strong play in this matchup. Both teams are off to a productive start from an offensive standpoint, and both have played subpar defense. Air Force just scored 32 points against a stellar Utah State defense, and they should have no problem moving the ball against Nevada, and the over is 9-4 in Nevada’s last 13 conference games. Air Force has squandered a combined 75 points in their last two games, and these two teams played to a high-scoring 45-42 decision last season. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams, and I anticipate another high scoring contest in this one.

Prediction: Over 64

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

I am taking Nevada at +3 on the alternative point spread. I believe Nevada can keep this one very close and possibly even win this game. This is a great matchup for Nevada. Air Force is struggling to defend the pass, and Nevada features a strong passing game that is averaging 289 passing yards per game, good for 28th in the country. In addition, Air Force has allowed an average of 37.5 points in their last two games. Nevada is averaging a solid 40 points in four games, and they should have no problem scoring points.

Prediction: Nevada Alternative Point Spread: +3

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

I am taking Nevada on the halftime line. Nevada has done big damage in the first half this season, averaging 23 points in four games. Furthermore, Air Force has been outscored by a wide 40-21 margin in the first half in their last two games.

Prediction: Nevada Wolfpack +3

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

I expect a ton of scoring throughout this game. Both teams have struggled in the first half from a defensive standpoint. Nevada is allowing an average of 19 points in the first half, and Air Force has conceded a combined 40 points in their last two games in the opening half. These two teams are both vulnerable on defense, and this game should be filled with plenty of scoring from both sides.

Prediction: Over 33

Half-Time Prop Prediction
Rating:

I am taking Nevada to score first. Air Force has struggled in the first quarter, scoring only a combined 14 points in the first quarter in three games this season, plus they have not scored in the opening quarter in two straight games. In addition, the Wolfpack have scored a combined 23 points in the first quarter in their last two games.

Prediction: Nevada to Score First: +100

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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