College football action on Saturday afternoon and a pair of teams from the Big 12 will square off as the Texas Longhorns battle it out with the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. The Longhorns are off a 31-16 home win over TCU, while the Wildcats check in off a 35-6 loss to West Virginia on the road. Texas won last year’s meeting at home by a score of 40-34 in OT.
The Longhorns Are Stampeding At The Moment
The Texas Longhorns began their season with a loss to Maryland, but they have responded with three wins in a row. The last two were against ranked foes USC and TCU and both wins were rather easy. They are playing very well and look to keep it going against a Kansas State team that has struggled this year. Two weeks ago, they destroyed USC by a score of 37-14 and followed it up with a 31-16 home win over TCU last week. They were outgained by five yards in the game, but they won the turnover battle 4-0. They allowed a strong TCU offense just 372 yards of total offense as their very strong defense is starting to play as it was expected to this year. The defense could have another very solid showing in this one as the Wildcats have been not that good this year. Texas is 91st against the pass and 29th against the run.
Spoke to #Texas #HookEm AC @washjwash FRI and talked a bit about Caden @lil_STERNS2…this was before his 2-INT game⬇️…Coach Wash said Caden is a born leader, better person off the field, adding…"man I'm glad he picked us" @Football_Steele @SK_Athletic @SCUCISD #KSATelite12 pic.twitter.com/xC4avVNkyJ
— RJ Marquez (@KSATRJ) September 23, 2018
The Texas offense has been average at best this year and they did have just 367 yards of total offense against the Horned Frogs, but still, it was more than enough to win. Sam Ehlinger threw for 255 yards and two TDs against a solid Horned Frogs defense. He has now thrown for 978 yards with eight TDs and just two INTs on the year and will take aim at a KSU defense that checks in at t81st in the nation against the pass. Texas could use more from a ground game that is just 83rd in the nation Tre Watson leads the team with 256 yards while scoring twice. The Wildcats are 87th against the run. Texas has averaged 31.2 ppg (65th) and they have allowed 21.2 ppg (43rd).
It’s Going To Be A Long Year For The Wildcats
Kansas State is off to a 2-2 start, but they have lost by a combined 66-16 in their two games against Power-Five teams. Last week, it was their Big 12 opener against West Virginia on the road and they were crushed in that game by a score of 35-6. They could be in for a long year as it doesn’t get any easier for them in this one as the Longhorns are scorching hot right now. They were outgained 464-318 in that game and were just 3/14 on third down. This game could have been a lot worse had they not won the turnover battle 4-1. It was the only bright spot of the game for them. Skylar Thompson threw for just 145 yards in the game and he has now thrown for 505 yards with four TDs and an INT on the year. It will not get easier for him in this one, despite the fact that Texas is 91st in the nation against the pass.
The Wildcats are 99th in the nation in passing and 94th in rushing, so their offense has not been that good this year. They ran for just 91 yards against the Mountaineers and Texas is 29th in the nation against the pass. The Wildcats have normally been a solid defensive squad, but that defense has struggled this year as they are 93rd in the nation in total defense. That is not good as they are about to take on a hot Texas offense. If they can’t slow them down, then they will be in big trouble. Kansas State has averaged 21.0 ppg (114th) while allowing 26.8 ppg (76th). They have issues on both sides of the ball.
Kansas State is:
- 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss
- 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- The Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.
- The Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games in September
- 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in this series overall
- 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kansas State
- The Under is 23-6 in their last 29 games following an ATS win
- The Under is 19-7 in Longhorns last 26 road games
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Kansas State has not looked good at all this year, especially when they have taken a step up in competition. Texas is on a roll and while i feel that they will win the game, I see the Wildcats being able to keep the game close. They need this game in the worst way and the Longhorns are coming in off a couple of big upset wins over ranked foes, plus they have the Oklahoma Sooners on deck. This is a flat spot for Texas and a desperate Kansas State squad will take advantage. I look for this one to be decided on a late field goal.
Prediction: Kansas State +8.5
Full-Game Total Pick
The Longhorns are really starting to play solid defense and the Wildcats have been one of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12 so far. Kansas State has not looked good on defense so far and Texas has been hot on offense, but still, I will look for the Texas offense to be a bit flat after their two huge wins the last two weeks. This game should be a low-scoring game and this clincher is the fact that the Under is 38-13 in Texas’ last 51 conference games.
Prediction: Under 48.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
I like the Wildcats to keep this game close and they will not do so in a shootout. They will need to rely on their defense to get the job done and at home, I feel that they can do just that.
Prediction: Texas Team Total Under 28.5
Half-Time Side Pick
After another loss to Maryland to start the year, The Longhorns are rolling, but this is a clear flat spot for them. they are off BB nationally televised upsets over USC and TCU and have Oklahoma on deck. The Wildcats have struggled so far and could easily be looked past by the Longhorns. Take KSU to have the lead at the break.
Prediction: Kansas State +5
Half-Time Total Bet
The Wildcat offense has not looked good at all at the beginning of the year and the Texas defense is one of the better in the Big 12. It is hard to see a lot of scoring in the first half of this one, especially with KSU averaging just 10.5 ppg at the break so far.
Prediction: Under 24.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I look for this game to be a low-scoring affair overall and that means that we should see no early scoring between these teams. KSU does not have a great offense and the Longhorns should come out a bit sluggish as they are in a flat spot for this game.
Prediction: Score In the First 6 Minutes– No