Are you ready for the LA Chargers vs. Houston Texans prediction? The Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 12-5 ATS, 8-9 O/U) collide with the Houston Texans (10-7, 7-8-2 ATS, 6-10-1 O/U) in the AFC Wildcard playoff at NRG Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Chargers recorded an 11-6 record after a win against the Raiders last week. The Texans issued a 10-7 mark including a win against the Titans in their previous bout. These squads last met in 2022 in a game the Chargers won by a 34-24 score.
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Los Angeles Enters Playoffs with Momentum
The Los Angeles Chargers are back in the playoffs after missing out in the previous two seasons. L.A. is in a groove. They have won three consecutive games and are the #5 seed in the AFC. The squad has not lost since December 15th in a 40-17 home defeat against the Buccaneers. The Chargers issued a solid 34-20 road win against the Raiders last week to cover the 6.5-point spread. The Chargers have covered the spread in four of their past five games.
Justin Herbert has been dominant this past month. The 26-year-old QB has posted 218 or more passing yards in five of his past eight games and has collected 3870 passing yards accompanied by a 23:3 TD to INT ratio on the season.
J.K. Dobbins is a threat on the ground. The 26-year-old RB missed a month earlier this season and played the last two games. He is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable. Dobbins has reached 100 rushing yards in two games this season and has recorded 950 rushing yards. Gus Edwards is solid as a backup. The veteran has accrued 365 rushing yards.
Ladd McConkey will play a huge part in this game, especially with Quintin Johnston questionable. The rookie WR out of Georgia is having a miraculous rookie season. McConkey has brought in 80+ receiving yards in five of his past six games. He will have a challenging assignment against a stingy pass defense. The L.A. offense was inconsistent this season but was dangerous in December, scoring 34 or more points in three consecutive games. They are averaging 324 total yards per game.
The Chargers defense is among the best in the NFL. They have conceded the fewest points. The group has kept its opponent to 19 or fewer points in 11 of 17 games this season. The Chargers did give up 506 yards against Tampa Bay last month but only 355 yards against the Broncos in week 16. They have stars throughout the defensive roster led by Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. Denzel Perryman is questionable. The pass defense is seventh while the rush defense is 14th.
Los Angeles is averaging 23.6 points on the season, ranking them 11th. The Chargers are keeping opponents to an average of only 17.7 points, placing them 1st.
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Houston Finishes Regular Season with 10 Wins
The Houston Texans won the AFC South and earned the benefit of hosting the wildcard game despite the Chargers having a superior record. Houston was 5-1 after six games and was inconsistent the rest of the season. The Texans were shaky offensively in the second half due in part to injuries but managed 10 wins. They are 3-2 in their past five games. This includes a 31-2 home loss against the Ravens. The squad rebounded with a solid 23-14 road win against the Titans last week in a bout that had the Texans marked as 2.5-point dogs. The Texans have covered the spread in two of their past five bouts.
C.J. Stroud is capable of big performances but had better numbers in his rookie year last season. The 23-year-old QB has recorded 242 or fewer passing yards in four of his past five games. Stroud has issued 3727 passing yards and a 20:12 TD to INT ratio on the season.
The offense will run more than pass. Joe Mixon is having a great season, surpassing 100 yards in several games including sparkling performances against the Packers and Colts. Mixon has registered 1016 rushing yards on the season.
The receiving group has dealt with key injuries. Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs are out for the remainder of the season with injuries. Nico Collins is as good as any receiver and should be targeted heavily. The 25-year-old posted 100 or more yards in four games. He has accrued 1016 receiving yards in only 12 games on the season. Houston has a solid tight end in Dalton Schultz with 532 yards. The Houston offense has scored 23 or fewer points in five consecutive games. The offense is posting an average of 320 yards per game.
The Texans' defense will need to come through in the clutch in this one. The defense is a strength. The unit has conceded 24 or fewer points in 11 of 17 games on the season. The pass defense is among the best, standing sixth, while the rush defense is placed 11th. They gave up 26 points against Detroit and 31 points against Baltimore. The Texans have a great pass rush led by Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. with a total of 21 sacks.
Houston is scoring an average of 21.9 points, rating them 19th. The Texans are conceding an average of 21.9 points, placing them 15th.
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Best Bets for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
The Los Angeles Chargers enter the wildcard playoff with confidence. The Chargers have won three consecutive games. They have been sharp on the road, sporting a 4-1 mark in their past five road bouts. The Houston Texans were 5-1 after six games but were shaky the rest of the season, issuing a 5-6 record in their last 11 games.
Furthermore, L.A. QB Justin Herbert is clicking, averaging a solid 260 passing yards in his past five games including 284 passing yards against the Broncos who also made the playoffs. Meanwhile, Texans QB C.J. Stroud has struggled without his key receivers, Dell and Diggs. He only averaged 210 passing yards in his last five games of the season. That does not include week 18 where he only played in one series. Stroud is making mistakes, throwing eight picks in his past eight games. Also, while the Texans have a solid defense, the Chargers have conceded the fewest points in the NFL. The Texans pass in 59% of their plays which is good news for the Chargers who have a sharp pass defense that is keeping opponents to an average of 206 passing yards per game.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
I expect plenty of scoring. Los Angeles has a potent offense. The numbers throughout the season look mediocre but Herbert was playing through injury at times. Los Angeles is clicking now, scoring 34 or more points in three consecutive games. L.A. has averaged 27 points in its past five games.
In addition, I expect Houston to make their mark offensively. The Chargers have conceded 20 or more points in three of their past four bouts. Joe Mixon is a threat on the ground and is up against a Chargers rush defense that is good, but not great, ranking 14th. The over is 4-0 in the Chargers' previous four bouts.
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