Wild Card Weekend is here in the NFL and we have a Sunday afternoon matchup between the Denver Broncos (10-7) and the Buffalo Bills (13-4). They did not meet this season, with their most recent matchup coming last year in Week 10, with the Broncos winning by ten on the road. Denver got in as the final Wild Card spot, claiming the 7-seed, while Buffalo won the AFC East to get the 2-seed and a home game. The Bills are currently listed as 9-point favorites. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York and can be found on CBS. If you need a winner, check out this Broncos vs. Bills prediction and our Best NFL Handicappers!
Who advances to the next round of the playoffs? Read below to see our Broncos vs. Bills prediction.
Denver Takes Seven Seed
The Denver Broncos are one of the surprise teams in the playoffs, as their expectations were not sky high starting the season with a rookie quarterback. Bo Nix has been solid this season and was helped by head coach Sean Payton as the two built an offense that was capable of ripping off ten wins this season. Three out of four teams in the AFC West advanced to the postseason, only leaving the Raiders behind. The Broncos had three players named to the Pro Bowl, linebacker Nick Bonitto, cornerback Patrick Surtain II, and return specialist Marvin Mims Jr.
Bo Nix will lead the Broncos offense during his first career playoff game. The rookie quarterback was 12th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,775 with a 66.3% completion rate. Nix was 6th in the NFL in touchdown passes with 29 and finished with 12 interceptions. He is a capable runner, finishing the season with 430 yards on the ground and four scores. Their top running back is Javonte Williams, he had 513 rushing yards this season and four touchdowns. Courtland Sutton is their top pass catcher, he finished the year with 1,081 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, while Marvin Mims Jr. contributed another 503 yards and six touchdowns.
Denver finished the season 10th in scoring with 25.0 points per game, and their defense ranked third by giving up just 18.3 points per game. Safety Brandon Jones led the team in tackles with 115 on the year, and had three of the team's 15 interceptions. Patrick Surtain II is their lockdown corner, he led the team with four picks on the year. Nick Bonitto finished 3rd in the NFL in sacks with 13.5, as the team finished with 63 on the year.
Injury Report:
Questionable: CB Damarri Mathis, T Frank Crum
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Bills Are Heavy Home Favorites
The Buffalo Bills were unable to catch the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC, but were still able to win their division and grab the number two seed in the playoffs. This ensures they will play all their games in Buffalo unless they have to play the Chiefs, or eventually make it to the Super Bowl. Buffalo had no problem in the AFC East, beating the second-place Dolphins by five games, and being the division's only representative in the postseason. Quarterback Josh Allen made the Pro Bowl, as well as offensive tackle Dion Dawkins.
Josh Allen is the favorite to win the league MVP Award according to DraftKings with -450 odds. He finished 14th in the league with 3,731 passing yards on a 63.6% completion rate, and was 7th in touchdowns with 28, finishing the season with just six interceptions. Allen finished second on the team in rushing yards with 531 and ran in another 12 touchdowns. James Cook is their top running back, he narrowly topped a thousand yards on the year, finishing with 1,009. Cook finished with 16 rushing touchdowns which was tied for the best mark in the NFL. Khalil Shakir finished as their top receiver, he had 821 yards and four touchdowns, while Keon Coleman added another 556 yards and four touchdowns.
Buffalo finished the season 2nd in scoring with 30.9 points per game, and their defense finished 11th by allowing 21.6 per game. Linebacker Dorian Williams was their top tackler with 117 on the season. The team finished with 39 sacks, including eight from defensive end Greg Rousseau. The team had 16 interceptions, with no standout performance as seven different players finished tied for the lead with two.
Injury Report:
Questionable: CB Brandon Codrington, CB JaMarcus Ingram
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Best Bets for Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
The regular season is over, and the favorites have performed well historically in the expanded Wild Card round. This is Bo Nix's first career playoff game, he will be going up against a defensive coach in Sean McDermott and will be playing in Buffalo on a cold and windy 30-degree day. This will not be a comfortable spot for the rookie, and the Buffalo defense will get after him all game. Denver's problem is they cannot rely on the run game to bail out Nix, Denver's top rusher finished the season with only 513 yards, which is 42nd overall in the NFL. The Broncos need to rely on Nix to make plays, which is too much to ask in this environment. Buffalo is second in the NFL in scoring to only the Lions, Josh Allen will look to add to his resume and put up a strong performance here. Buffalo does have a run game, as James Cook has added an extra element this team has been missing in previous seasons, he finished tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns. The Bills won by 14 last year in the Wild Card Round, they will leave nothing to chance here and win comfortably.
Take the Bills to cover.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
The Bills offense was on fire to end the season, and they will keep it going here behind the momentum of their fans at home. Buffalo finished the season second in scoring with 30.9 points per game, and they played late-season games against the Jets where they scored 40 and the Rams where they scored 48. Buffalo does not want to keep this game close late, so they will not play conservatively as they look to run up a big number. Buffalo was better offensively than defensively, as they only ranked 11th in defensive scoring. Sean Payton will cook up an offense that can put points on the board. Bo Nix is a rookie, but the 24-year-old started 61 games in college, and he will not shy away from the bright lights. The weather shows that it will be cold, but should be clear, removing any rain or snow considerations. The Bills will be able to score big early, forcing the Broncos to play catch up and take chances they might typically not go for.
Take the over.
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