Titans vs. Dolphins, 10/9/16 - Preview & Prediction

Game Snapshot

#454 Miami Dolphins
vs.
#453 Tennessee Titans

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Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Tennessee Titans (1-3; 1-3 ATS; 2-2 O/U) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-3; 1-3 ATS; 2-2 O/U)

NFL: Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 1:00pm EST

Line: Miami -3.5

Total:  43.5

The Miami Dolphins will host the Tennessee Titans as the two struggling clubs look to get back on track in week five action Sunday afternoon from Hard Rock Stadium. The Titans were defeated 27-20 on the road to the Texans last week, and the Dolphins were crushed 22-7 by the Bengals. Miami defeated Tennessee 38-10 last season.

Mariota Struggles in Loss to Texans

The Tennessee Titans rallied from a 14-point deficit but it wasn’t enough as the Texans persevered and the Titans fell 27-20 last Sunday. Marcus Mariota did not have a good game, connecting on just 13 of his 29 passes with no touchdowns and one interception. The former second overall pick is not having the season the Titans envisioned, throwing for 925 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions through four games. DeMarco Murray had a solid game on the ground, rushing for 95 yards off a whopping 25 carries. Murray has looked good the last three games after a slow week one, and has now tallied 340 yards on the ground with three touchdowns, to go along with 156 receiving yards. The Titans conceded a punt return for a touchdown in the loss, and Tennessee responded by firing their special teams coach Monday morning. Tennessee has to be disappointed with their offensive output against a Texans team that was playing with J.J. Watt. Overall the  Titans offense has been abysmal, averaging an NFL worst 15.5 points per game.

The Titans defense wasn’t sharp in the loss to the Texans, allowing Houston to go 2 for 2 in the red zone. Cornerback Perrish Cox picked off a pass from Brock Osweiler and has now made two interceptions on the season. Overall the Titans defense has been decent this season, conceding an average of 21 points per game ranking them 15th in the NFL.

Dolphins Offense Sputters in Loss to Bengals

The Miami Dolphins could not stop A.J. Green and the Bengals last Thursday, losing 22-7 in Cincinnati. The Dolphins could not get anything going on offense as Ryan Tannehill connected on a season-low 15 passes, throwing for only 189 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The 28-year old quarterback has now thrown five interceptions over his last three games to go along with six touchdowns. The Dolphins are dealing with a plethora of injuries and that really hurt them in this one as Arian Foster and Jordan Cameron were sidelined, and the Dolphins only managed to rush for a team total of 61 yards. Foster is listed as questionable for this matchup, and Jordan Cameron is doubtful as he is dealing with a concussion. Overall the Dolphins offense has not been very productive, averaging only 17.8 points per game, ranking them down at 27th in the NFL.

The Dolphins defense did not have an answer for Andy Dalton and A.J. Green who racked up 173 yards in the air, and rookie cornerback Xavien Howard could not contain Green. The one positive in this one was the Dolphins rush defense, holding the Bengals to just 77 rushing yards. The Miami defense has faced three really strong offensive teams this season and have allowed an average of 22.2 points per game, ranking them in the middle at 16th overall.

Trends:

The Tennessee Titans are:

  • road team in 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between Tennessee and Miami.

The Miami Dolphins are:

  • 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a losing record.
  • 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
  • 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after totalling less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.

I am taking the points with the Titans in this one. The Dolphins have been awful offensively and their defense has been mediocre, with their lone win coming against the Browns in game that could have gone either way. Overall the Titans defense has been solid and they should be able to contain a Miami offense that is only averaging 17.8 points per game, plus Arian Foster is questionable and his potential absence will hurt the Dolphins again. Also, Miami has been terrible at stopping the run as they are ranked 29th in the NFL in rush defense, and the Titans running game has been solid with DeMarco Murray, so I feel the Titans will be able to have a lot of success on the ground, so I will take the point with the Titans.

Prediction: Tennessee +3.5

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Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.