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Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks,
10-1-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#277 Indianapolis
Colts
#278 Seattle
Seahawks

Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 8:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, 2-1 O/U)

NFL: Sunday, October 1, 2017, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington, 8:30 pm ET

Spread: Seattle -13; Over/Under: 41

It’s an inter-conference battle in week 4 of the NFL season up in the Pacific Northwest. The Indianapolis Colts are on the road as they head west to face the Seattle Seahawks Sunday night. Indianapolis picked up their first win of the season as they held off Cleveland 31-28 at home last week. Seattle was knocked off 33-27 on the road by Tennessee last week. The Colts have a 7-4 advantage in the all-time series between the teams and took the last two, including a 34-28 win at home on October 6, 2013, in the most recent matchup.

Indianapolis Colts Trying to Hang In Without Luck

Indianapolis continues to play without franchise quarterback Andrew Luck, who is hoping to return in time for their Week 6 game against the Titans. The Colts managed to get in the win column last week but it’s important to note that the victory came against the lowly Browns. Indianapolis led by 17 with 10 minutes to play but saw the lead trimmed to three with 2:04 to play before hanging on. The Colts were edged 346-335 in total offense and 25-16 in first downs while holding a 33:27 to 26:33 margin in time of possession. Indianapolis forced three Cleveland turnovers while only committing one, helping them pick up the win.

The Colts are 22nd in the league in passing offense with 194.3 yards per game through the air and 25th in the league in rushing with 81 yards per contest. Indianapolis is tied for 20th in scoring offense with an average of 17.7 points per game and stands second worst in scoring defense as they allow 31 points a contest. Jacoby Brissett is 39 of 64 passing for 526 yards with one touchdown against one interception while adding 36 yards and two scores on the ground. Scott Tolzien is nine of 18 for 128 yards with two interceptions. Frank Gore leads the Colts in rushing with 49 carries for 145 yards and two scores. Robert Turbin (10 carries, 36 yards) and rookie Marlon Mack (16 carries, 21 yards, TD) are the secondary backs. In the passing game, T.Y. Hilton leads the way with 14 catches for 259 yards plus a score while tight end Jack Doyle contributes 12 receptions for 136 yards. No other player has more than five receptions. Adam Vinatieri has booted five of six extra points and four of five field goals with a long of 46.

Seattle Seahawks Look to Rebound, Even Record

Seattle’s vaunted defense bent and eventually broke in the loss to the Titans on the road. The Seahawks trailed just 9-7 at the half and took a 14-9 lead early in the third quarter before giving up 21 unanswered points before the end of the stanza. Seattle tried to rally, closing the gap to six with under two minutes to go, but they couldn’t finish the deal. The Seahawks held a slim 433-420 edge in total yards and a 24-21 advantage in first downs. Seattle lost the time of possession battle 32:41 to 27:19 and couldn’t come up with the one or two key plays in that third quarter which could have swung momentum back their way.

The Seahawks are 18th in the league in passing offense with 226.7 yards per game and tied for 18th with 96.7 rushing yards per contest. Seattle is just tied for 26th in scoring offense with 16 points per contest and 8th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 19.7 points per contest. Russell Wilson is 66 of 115 for 729 yards with five touchdowns against no interceptions while adding 100 yards on the ground. Chris Carson had a team-high 37 carries for 166 yards while the rest of the running back committee (C.J. Prosise, Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy) have combined for 18 carries totaling 27 yards. Doug Baldwin leads the Seahawks with 20 receptions for 212 yards plus a score. Jimmy Graham (11 receptions, 81 yards) and Tyler Lockett (nine catches, 102 yards) are solid options. Blair Walsh is three of four on extra points and five of five on field goals with a long of 41.

Trends:

Indianapolis

  • Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
  • Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win

Seattle

  • Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
  • Seahawks are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

This one could conceivably be a coin flip as the Seahawks haven’t looked sharp this season but the Colts are playing with a backup quarterback that was acquired right before the season began. If Luck was playing, the Colts would get the nod but the line likely wouldn’t be double digits. As it stands, the Seahawks showed some life offensively in the second half. Playing at home, the Legion of Boom should have the ability to deal with a young, inexperienced quarterback and set the offense up with favorable spots to get the win.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -13

Seattle finally snapped out of their offensive doldrums in the second half of their game against Tennessee. The Seahawks have to carry that momentum into this one against a Colts team that is the second worst team in the league in scoring defense. Brissett played well against the Browns but there’s a major difference between Cleveland’s defense and Seattle’s. He’s going to be seriously tested in this contest and will have to have the best game of his young career for the Colts to have a chance in this contest.

The over is 4-1 in the Colts’ last 5 games in October, 7-2 in their last nine games in week 4, 24-9 in their last 33 games on the road and 5-2 in their last seven against teams with a losing record. Seattle has seen the over go 4-1 in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and 8-3 in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The teams have gone over the total in four of the last five meetings: with Indianapolis’s weak defense, look for this one to go over the total as well.

Over 41

4

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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