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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets,
10-1-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#261 Jacksonville
Jaguars
#262 New York
Jets

Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U) at New York Jets (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

When and Where: Sunday, Oct. 1, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J., 1pmET

Line: Jacksonville -3.5

Total: 39.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars fell at the New York Jets in November of 2015, 28-23. These are teams going in different directions in 2017. The Jets are coming off an upset win at home over Miami, 20-6, while Jacksonville destroyed Baltimore in London, 44-7.

Jags look like Super Bowl team against Ravens

Maybe the jetlag played a part or the time difference made the Ravens come out flat on Sunday afternoon (9:30amET). But you have to give Jacksonville for playing a flawless game in their 44-7 win. After settling for a 23-yard field goal from Jason Myers, the Jags just kept moving the ball and getting stops the rest of the game. Blake Bortles threw four touchdown passes, including three to tight end Marcedes Lewis in the rout. Lewis had four catches for 62 yards and came into the game with no catches. Bortles completed 20 of 31 for 244 yards and four TDs with no picks. He now has 592 yards passing with six TDs and two picks for a 93.8 QB rating. Rookie running back Leonard Fournette added 59 yards and now has 265 on 57 attempts with three TDs.

But an even bigger key to the Jags’ 2-1 start is their defense. They held the Ravens to just 186 yards including just 52 in the air on Sunday. DL Calais Campbell (6-8, 300) has been a great pickup from Arizona, recording 4.5 sacks and 10 tackles. The Jags are allowing just 259.7 yards per game and 124.3 in the air.

The Jets are not going winless

The Jets came into this season with few expectations. Four wins may have been a stretch, especially after they traded star DT Sheldon Richardson to Seattle right before the season began. Yet on Sunday, the Jets defense didn’t need Richardson. They held Miami to just 30 rushing yards on 15 carries, while also giving Jay Cutler some trouble. The Dolphins were held scoreless the entire game until the final seconds, when Cutler hit DeVante Parker with a 3-yard TD pass. The Jets were led by veteran quarterback Josh McCown, who completed 18 of 23 for 249 yards with one TD. He threw a 69-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson late in the second quarter to give the Jets a 10-0 lead, which was all they really needed. Demario Davis led the Jets with 12 tackles, while Buster Skrine added eight stops.

The Jets are allowing 347.7 yards per game and 133.3 on the ground, so they haven’t been that dominant in losses to Oakland (45-20) and Buffalo (21-12).

NFL Trends:

Jags are:

  • 4-0 ATS last 4 road games.
  • 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. AFC.

Jets are:

  • 1-5 ATS last 6 in Week 4.
  • 0-4 ATS last 4 after an ATS win.

The Jets showed up in a big way against Miami, but that Fins didn’t arrive. That’s the NFL-any given Sunday. If you aren’t into it mentally, you get destroyed. The Jags saw the film so they can’t overlook the Jets. They won’t win 44-7 but they have the talent to win in double digits.

Pick: Jacksonville

The Jets are usually an under team while the Jags are an over team. Have to go with the Over in this one since I’m going with the Jags, who have more offensive talent. The Jags are 9-4 Over vs. the AVC and 6-1 Over in October. As well as their defense played against Baltimore, the Ravens have the worst offense in the NFL so take that game with a grain of salt.

Over

4

Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!

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