Oakland Raiders (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at Denver Broncos (2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS, 3-o O/U)
When and Where: Sunday, Oct. 1, Sports Authority Field, Denver, Col., 4:25pmET
Line: Denver -3
Both AFC West teams are coming off disappointing games. Maybe they were looking ahead to this matchup? Oakland was a complete no-show in a 27-10 loss on Sunday night at Washington. Denver struggled in their 26-16 road loss at Buffalo. Last season, Denver beat Oakland, 24-65 at home, while the Raiders won the second game at home, 30-20.
Oakland shows up in Landover, but fails to play
There was not a lot of good that came out of Oakland’s 27-10 loss at Washington on Sunday night. The Raiders got behind 14-0 at the half and 21-0 in the third quarter, after Josh Doctson caught (stole from Dave Amerson) a 52-yard pass from Kirk Cousins with 10:37 left in the third quarter. The Raiders couldn’t run the ball (32 yards on 13 carries) and Derek Carr had a terrible game with 118 yards passing, one TD and two picks. Carr is young and should bounce back but there should be a concern about Marshawn Lynch. “Beastmode” came back from retirement and hasn’t looked like the same back when he played for Seattle. He has 167 yards on 36 attempts in three games with one TD.
Defensively, the Raiders were horrendous against Washington, especially against the pass. Kirk Cousins completed 25 of 30 for 365 yards with three TDs and no picks against a Raiders pass defense that looked confused all night. On the season, the Raiders are allowing 259 yards per game in the air. Offensively, they average 299 yards per game and just 192 yards in the air.
Siemian has a reality check
Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian showed signs of John Elway and Peyton Manning in the first two games. Maybe that’s a stretch, but Siemian played great football in wins against Dallas (42-17) and the LA Chargers (24-21), throwing for a combined six touchdowns with two picks. But on Sunday, he did not throw a touchdown pass against Buffalo and wound up with two interceptions. Denver had a 13-10 lead going into halftime before Stephen Hauschka nailed a 55-yard field goal to tie the game for the Bills. The Broncos scored just three more points in the second half and Hauschka kicked two more field goals to lead the Bills to the home win.
The Broncos had no problem moving the ball against the Bills. They had 21 first downs and had the ball for 29:34 but couldn’t finish drives due to the two picks and the 10 penalties for 79 yards. They ran the ball decently enough, led by 56 yards from Jamaal Charles and 36 yards on eight carries from C.J. Anderson.
- 1-8 ATS last 9 in Week 4.
- 8-3-2 ATS last 13 home games.
- 9-4 ATS last 13 in October.
- 13-6-1 ATS last 20 after an ATS loss.
Denver is 8-2-1 ATS last 11 against Oakland and the favorite is 8-1-1 ATS last 10 in this series. The Broncos are the better defensive team, allowing just 59.7 rushing yards per game. Von Miller and company will be in Carr’s face all game.
Even though I’m going with more of an under team in Denver, the Broncos can score points. That’s why they are 5-1 Over vs. the AFC West and 46-22-3 Over the last 71 after a SU win. Oakland is 19-7-1 Over last 27 after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.