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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Chargers,
10-1-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#271 Philadelphia
Eagles
#272 Los Angeles
Chargers

Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 4:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

NFL: Sunday, October 1, 2017, StubHub Center, Carson, California, 4:05 pm ET

Spread: Los Angeles -1; Over/Under: 47.5

It’s an inter-conference battle in week 4 of the NFL season out on the west coast. The Philadelphia Eagles are on the road as they head west to face the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday afternoon. Philadelphia survived a wild fourth quarter to edge the Giants, 27-24, on the road last week. San Diego remained winless as they were defeated 24-10 at home by the Chiefs last week. The Chargers have a 7-4 advantage in the all-time regular season series between the teams. Los Angeles took the last two matchups, including a 33-30 road win in the last matchup on September 15, 2013.

Philadelphia Eagles Look to Keep Momentum From Last Second Win

Philadelphia was in a back and forth contest with the Giants that went right down to the final play. The Eagles led 14-0 after three quarters, fell behind 21-14 and 24-21 only to tie the game late. With the game on the line, the Eagles hit a game-winning 61-yard field goal as time expired to win the contest. Philadelphia was outgained 415-364 but picked up 24 first downs while allowing 21 while dominating the time of possession battle by a 37:32 to 22:28 margin. The Eagles also came up with a key defensive stand right before the half, turning the Giants away on fourth and goal from inside the one-yard line.

The Eagles are 10th in the league with 252.7 yards per contest through the air and 9th in rushing offense with 119.3 yards per game. Philadelphia comes in 10th in the NFL in scoring offense with 25.7 points per contest and is 20th in scoring defense as they give up an average of 22.7 points per game. Carson Wentz is 76 of 116 throwing the ball for 816 yards with five touchdowns against two interceptions while rushing for 83 yards. LeGarrette Blount leads the Eagles with 26 carries for 113 yards plus a score while Wendell Smallwood (19 carries, 79 yards) is a solid change of pace back. Zach Ertz leads the team with 21 receptions for 245 yards plus a score. Alshon Jeffery (14 grabs, 185 yards, TD), Torrey Smith (nine receptions, 125 yards) and Nelson Agholor (nine grabs, 115 yards, two TD) are solid outside targets when Wentz decides to stretch the field. Caleb Sturgis was 1 of 2 on extra points and 3 of 3 on field goals with a long of 50 before straining a hip flexor. Jake Elliott is 5 of 5 on extra points and 4 of 6 on field goals with a long of 61.

Los Angeles Chargers Seek First Win of the Season

Los Angeles fell in a hole early and their offense was unable to dig them out of the hole, dooming them to a third straight defeat. The Chargers were down 14-0 in the opening nine and a half minutes: they never got closer than seven the rest of the way. Los Angeles outgained Kansas City 330-311 and picked up 24 first downs to the Chiefs’ 16 yet couldn’t come up with the win. The Chiefs had a narrow 30:26 to 29:34 margin in time of possession but what doomed the Chargers was the turnover game: they committed three giveaways while failing to record a takeaway.

The Chargers are 12th in the league in passing offense as they average 244.7 yards per game through the air and 27th in rushing offense as they put up 70.7 yards per contest. Los Angeles is tied for 26th in scoring offense with 16 points per contest and tied for 17th in scoring defense as they give up 22.3 points per game. Philip Rivers is 73 of 112 for 760 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. Melvin Gordon is the leader in the ground game as he has 44 carries for 146 yards and two scores. He left the game against the Chiefs with a sore knee but claims he’ll be ready to go. Branden Oliver contributes 15 carries for 57 yards on the ground. Keenan Allen leads the team with 19 receptions for 196 yards plus a score. Gordon has 12 grabs for 90 yards plus a score while Tyrell Williams adds 11 catches for 123 yards. The team has to do more to get Hunter Henry (seven receptions, 80 yards) and Antonio Gates (six grabs, 58 yards, TD) in the mix. Younghoe Koo has connected on all six extra points and two of five field goal attempts with a long of 41.

Trends:

Philadelphia

  • No Key Trends

Los Angeles

  • Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss
  • Chargers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall

Philadelphia nearly let the game against the Giants slip away before picking up the win in the dying seconds. The Eagles should be able to take that momentum with them on the road. San Diego is winless and continues to find a way to lose close games. The Chargers have to find a way to come up with clutch plays on both sides of the ball without turning the ball over. Had they hung on to the ball against the Chiefs and had a little more luck in special teams, they could easily be 3-0 as opposed to 0-3. In the end, it’s not enough as Philadelphia gets the win here.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +1

If you’re Sturgis, you have to wonder if you’re going to have a job to come back too given Elliott’s performance. Booting the longest field goal in the history of Lincoln Financial Field, and one that beat a division rival to boot, is going to create some good will for the rookie from Memphis. That’s something the Chargers could really use: their decision to keep Koo over Josh Lambo in the kicking game hasn’t exactly paid sparkling dividends as of yet. Between poor special teams and the inability to make crucial plays at critical moments, the Chargers are staring up at the rest of the AFC West after just three weeks.

The over is 12-2 in the Eagles last 14 road games, 4-1 in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game,  22-6 in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record, 6-2 in their last eight overall and 20-8 in their last 28 on the road against teams with a losing home record. Los Angeles has seen the over go 5-1 in their last six October games and 16-5 in their last 21 games in week 4. Given the inconsistency of Los Angeles’s defense and the Eagles’ penchant for putting up points, this one goes over the total.

Over 48

4

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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