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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens,
10-1-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#265 Pittsburgh
Steelers
#266 Baltimore
Ravens

Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U)

When and Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Sunday, Oct. 1, 1pmET

Line: Pittsburgh -2.5

Total: 43.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are tied for first in the AFC North, despite both teams losing last week on the road. Baltimore got demolished in London by Jacksonville last week, 44-7 in the franchise’s worst loss ever. The Steelers were embarrassed by they did lose on the road as a 7-point favorite to Chicago in overtime, 23-17. Last year, the Ravens won the game at home (21-14), while the Steelers scored in the last second to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs, 31-27 on Christmas night.

Steelers run over by the Bears

Pittsburgh has looked very unsteady this season, especially on the road. They barely beat Cleveland in their opener, 21-18 and then were trailing most of the way against the Bears this past Sunday. The Bears took a 17-7 lead at the half and would not relinquish the lead until the Steelers tied at 17-17 on a Chris Boswell 32-yard field goal. The game went to overtime and rookie Tarik Cohen ran for 36 yards (nearly scored) to set up the winning score. Jordan Howard finished the game with a 19-yard touchdown run to give the Bears the 23-17 win.

Ben Roethlisberger completed 22 of 39 for 235 yards and one TD, while Antonio Brown caught 10 passes for 110 yards and one TD. But the Steelers have not really clicked yet, especially on the grounder (70 yards on 17 carries). They also couldn’t stop the run, as the Bears ran for 220 yards on 38 carries. On the season, the Steelers are allowing just 259.3 yards per game but 122.7 on the ground. On offense, they are averaging 302.3 yards per game and just 69 yards on the ground.

Ravens don’t show up in London

Baltimore was embarrassed on offense and defense in their 44-7 loss to Jacksonville from London. The Ravens were down 23-0 at the half and only scored when Ryan Mallett hit Ben Watson for a 6-yard pass with 3:24 left in the game. The Jags were able to move the ball at will against a Baltimore defense that had been dominant in their first two games. They gave up 410 yards of offense and allowed Blake Bortles to throw four touchdowns, including three to tight end Marcedes Lewis. On the offensive end, Joe Flacco completed 8 of 18 for 28 yards and had two picks. The only bright spot was the running of backup Alex Collins, who gained 82 yards on nine carries.

The Ravens have the worst offense in the NFL, averaging just 263.7 yards per carry with only 121.3 passing yards. Flacco, who missed preseason due to a back injury, has completed 60.9 percent of his passes with three TDs, four picks, 366 yards and a 65.2 QB Rating. Baltimore does lead the league with players on the IR (16) as they lost another key player on Sunday with DE Brett Urban suffering a foot injury. DT Brandon Williams (foot) also missed the Jags game and is questionable for this one.

NFL Trends:

Pittsburgh is:

  • 1-4-1 ATS last 6 in Week 4.
  • 1-5 ATS last 6 after allowing less than 150 yards in their previous game.

Baltimore is:

  • 10-1 ATS last 11 vs. AFC North.
  • 5-1 ATS last 6 home games.

Both of these teams are outstanding at home and shaky on the road. However, Baltimore beat Cincinnati on the road in their first game. They are not as bad as they showed in London, especially on defense. The Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 in series and the Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 in series. Take the points.

Pick: Baltimore

Baltimore is improved over last season on the defensive side. Their secondary has better personnel so they can defend players like Brown and Martavis Bryant. The Ravens are 6-1 Under last 7 vs. AFC North. Pittsburgh is 23-9-1 Under their last 36 vs. AFC North.

Under

3

Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!

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