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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Giants vs. Patriots Prediction

Thursday, October 10, 2019 at 8:20pm EDT
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Thursday, October 10, 2019 at 1:41pm EDT

Introduction

It’s the start of the week 6 schedule in the NFL with an interconference matchup in the northeast. The New York Giants are on the road as they make the trip to face the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. New York was dropped 25-10 at home by Minnesota in their previous contest Sunday afternoon. New England rolled to a 33-7 victory on the road over Washington in their last game on Sunday afternoon. The Patriots own a 6-4 advantage in the all-time regular season series, including a 27-26 road win in the last meeting on November 15, 2015. Of course, the teams have met in the Super Bowl twice with the Giants taking both of those meetings.

New York Giants Review

New York went into Week 5 winners of two straight games but they were unable to maintain that momentum against a Minnesota team that had something to prove. The Giants now have the unenviable task of having to go on the road and battle the undefeated Patriots in this contest. New York has been better offensively under rookie Daniel Jones, who continues to develop under center after taking over partway through the Tampa Bay game back in week 3. He’ll have his work cut out in this one as Bill Belichick does a great job at making life miserable for rookie quarterbacks.

Against the Vikings, the Giants made some plays but they were unable to stop the Minnesota passing attack that sliced through their defense. The Giants were trashed 490-211 in total offense, giving up 306 yards through the air to a Minnesota offense that hadn’t gone over 233 yards through the air in the first four games of the season. New York gave up 22 first downs while allowing 18 and lost the time of possession battle 32:40 to 27:20 in the game. Both teams turned the ball over once but the Giants took the hit on that as well: after forcing their lone turnover, they gave up a safety on the next offensive snap. New York was down to their third and fourth-string running backs as Saquon Barkley was out with a high ankle sprain: Wayne Gallman was knocked out with a concussion early in this contest.

New England Patriots Review

New England struggled in the early going against Washington as they were burned for a 65-yard touchdown run to trail for the first time this season. That seemed to be the wakeup call that the Patriots needed after struggling through last week’s road win over Buffalo. New England shut Washington out over the final 54-plus minutes en route to the one-sided triumph. The Patriots allowed just their second offensive touchdown of the season but then made life miserable the rest of the way as they ripped off 33 unanswered points.

The Patriots took the play to the Redskins, even getting their dormant ground game going, in an effort to bolster their offense. New England rolled up a 442-220 edge in total offense, including 27 carries for 130 yards and a score on the ground. The Patriots picked up a 23-11 advantage in first downs and owned a 31:52 to 28:08 advantage in time of possession. New England was solid in the turnover battle, forcing a pair of takeaways while committing only one, though that giveaway was an interception in the red zone. The Patriots’ defense racked up six sacks and completely stymied Washington over the final three quarters.

The Running Game

New York Giants Running Offense
vs. New England Patriots Running Defense

New York Giants Running Offense

New York is trying their best to move the ball on the ground though at times, they’ve been limited by the game flow and situation. The Giants also are dealing with an injury to their most explosive player, which has hampered things. New York ran the ball 17 times for 151 yards plus a score against Dallas in week 1. The Giants had 20 carries for 129 yards and a score against the Bills in week 2 and 19 times for 72 yards plus two scores against the Buccaneers in week 3. Last week against the Redskins, New York racked up 37 carries for a season-high 164 yards plus a score. The Giants were again playing from behind against Minnesota and that, coupled with Barkley missing along with Gallman knocked out early in the contest, made things difficult. New York finished with 20 carries for 64 yards against the Vikings.

Saquon Barkley leads the team on the ground with 37 carries for 237 yards and a score. He suffered a high ankle sprain against the Buccaneers in week 3: he missed the last two weeks and is unlikely here. Barkley did take part in some individual drills last week in practice and seems likely to return before his four-week projection but it is unclear if he’ll play after a short week. If Wayne Gallman (27 carries, 107 yards, two TD) misses this game along with Barkley, it would mean that Jon Hilliman (19 carries, 53 yards) and Elijhaa Penny (eight carries, 30 yards) will have to pick up the slack. Daniel Jones has 13 carries for 78 yards and two scores on the ground as well. The Giants have five run plays of at least 20 yards this season and have moved the sticks 32 times via the ground game this season.

New England Patriots Run Defense

The Patriots have been one of, if not the, most effective teams at stopping the opposition from running the ball. Some of that is the fact that their offensive talent has generated a big enough lead that the opposition has to abandon the ground game. The fact remains that you still have to stop the opposition regardless of the plays that are being run against you and that is something that the Patriots have done. New England limited the Steelers to just 32 yards in the opener and stifled the Dolphins, holding them to 15 carries for 42 yards. Against Buffalo in their first close game of the season, New England gave up more yards (22 carries, 135 yards, TD) than they had in the first three games (110 yards) this season. The Patriots gave up 145 yards and a score on 20 carries against Washington but it’s important to note that 65 of those yards came on one play.

Jamie Collins Sr. leads the team with 27 tackles (20 solo) this season from his linebacker position. Jason McCourty (24 tackles), Patrick Chung (17 tackles), Stephon Gilmore (19 tackles and Dont’a Hightower (20 tackles) are among the top tacklers on the team so far this season. Collins leads the team with eight tackles for loss while Hightower has five. Chase Winovich (seven tackles) has four tackles for loss while Kyle Van Noy (12 tackles, two forced fumbles) and Adam Butler (nine tackles) each have 3.5 to help bolster the team. As a squad, the Patriots have rolled up 37 tackles for loss and forced five fumbles while recovering one this season.

Stats

NY Giants:

  • 26th in run play percentage (35.09 percent)
  • 24th in rushing attempts per game (22.6)
  • 15th in rushing yards per game (116)
  • 6th in yards per carry (5.1)
  • Tied for sixth in rushing TD (five)
  • 8th in longest rush (59 yards)

NE

  • 1st in percentage of run plays against (30.72 percent)
  • 1st in run plays per game against (18)
  • 4th in rushing yards allowed per game (78)
  • 13th in opposing yards per carry (4.3)
  • Tied for 4th in rushing TD allowed (two)
  • 26th in longest rush allowed (65 yards)

Who has the Edge?

The Giants have had their issues running the ball this season but part of that is dictated by the fact that they have fallen behind by double digits in games. Barkley is working his way back and New York definitely could use him, especially with Gallman in the concussion protocol. Even with him, it might be an uphill climb trying to commit to the run. If Barkley can go, this one is a push but if he is out or limited in any way, the pendulum swings heavily in favor of New England.

Update (10/10/19): Barkley is out for the Giants, which means they will be without their top two backs. Gallman will also miss the game which means Eli Penny and Jon Hillman will get most of the reps.

Advantage: New England Patriots

New England Patriots Running Offense
vs. New York Giants Running Defense

New England Patriots Running Offense

New England has been the epitome of the three yards and a cloud of dust sort of run game that was prevalent in the 1970s. The Patriots aren't gashing teams for big plays on the ground but they are patient and determined. New England ran the ball 29 times for 99 yards against the Steelers in their opener before handing off 35 times for 126 yards and two scores against Miami in week 2. The Patriots ground out 27 carries for 68 yards plus two scores against the Jets in week 3 and then had 23 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo in week 4. New England finally averaged better than four yards a carry in week five as they ran the ball 27 times for 130 yards and a score against Washington.

Sony Michel has been the lead back for the Patriots this season but yards have been hard to come by so far. He has 78 carries for 262 yards and three touchdowns on the year. Rex Burkhead has carried the ball 24 times for 112 yards plus a score while James White is next in line with 14 carries for 63 yards this season. As a team, the Patriots have only one run play that has covered at least 20 yards on the year. New England has racked up 32 first downs via the ground game.

New York Giants Run Defense

New York’s run defense has been up and down this season. The Giants have allowed more than 140 yards twice and held their other two opponents under 100 yards on the ground this season. New York gave up 30 carries for 89 yards and a score in the opening game of the season against Dallas. The Giants sputtered against Buffalo in week 2 (34 carries, 151 yards, three TD) and against the Buccaneers in week 3 (32 carries, 144 yards) before bouncing back last week against a hapless Washington team. New York held the Redskins to 17 carries for 55 yards. Last week, the Giants were carved up for 211 yards on 34 carries, an average of 6.2 yards per carry.

Safety Antoine Bethea leads the team with 40 tackles (27 solo) on the season. Jabrill Peppers (30 tackles, forced fumble), Janoris Jenkins (26 tackles), along with linebackers Ryan Connelly (20 tackles) and Markus Golden (19 tackles) are near the top of the leaderboard for the Giants when it comes to tackles this season. Golden leads the team with 4.5 tackles for loss while Oshane Ximines (14 tackles) has three while Connelly contributes 2.5 on the year: he was lost for the season against Washington with a torn ACL. As a team, New York has racked up 27 tackles for loss: they have forced two fumbles and recovered one this season.

Stats

NE

  • 15th in run play percentage (41.35 percent)
  • 9th in rushing attempts per game (28.2)
  • 21st in rushing yards per game (99)
  • 28th in yards per carry (3.5)
  • Tied for 6th in rushing TD (six)
  • Tied for 25th in longest rush (25 yards)

NYG

  • 28th in percentage of run plays against (46.82 percent)
  • 26th in run plays per game against (29.4)
  • 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (130)
  • 15th in opposing yards per carry (4.4)
  • Tied for 11th in rushing TD allowed (four)
  • 17th in longest rush allowed (41 yards)

Who has the Edge?

The Giants have seen plenty of the run game from their opponents this season and that is something that could be a plus for New England. New York was just sliced and diced by the Vikings and they are near the bottom of the league in most categories. New England had struggled in the first four games of the season with the run game but they seemed to turn things around against the Redskins. With New York struggling to stop the run and a variety of ways to do damage, give the slight lean to New England after seeing Michel show signs of life against Washington.

Advantage: New England Patriots

The Passing Game

New York Giants Passing Offense
vs. New England Patriots Passing Defense

New York Giants Passing Offense

New York has had to throw more likely than they wanted to in the first quarter of the season as they found themselves in double-digit deficits in three of their first four games. The Giants finally managed to get and hold a lead against Washington, helping them have a more balanced attack. New York threw for 323 yards in the opener against Dallas. Against the Bills in week 2, the Giants threw for 250 yards: they followed that up with a 336-yard showing against the Buccaneers in week 3. In their week 4 contest with the Redskins, New York threw for 225 yards, mainly because they weren’t trying to dig out of a hole. The week 5 game for the Giants proved to be a challenge as they were held to a season-low 182 yards while giving up four sacks.

Daniel Jones took over for Eli Manning in the week 3 game against Tampa Bay and the first-round pick earned the starting job: he is 70 of 109 for 760 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He has been sacked nine times for 59 yards in losses this season. Manning has completed 56 of 89 passes for 556 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions this season. He has been sacked twice for a loss of 13 yards. Evan Engram leads the team with 33 receptions for 373 yards and two scores this season. Sterling Shepherd (25 catches, 267 yards, TD) and Bennie Fowler (12 grabs, 99 yards) are solid secondary options. Shepherd went into the league’s concussion protocol on Monday and is out for this one: that puts more pressure on Golden Tate (three receptions, 13 yards) and Darius Slayton (nine grabs, 157 yards, TD) to produce. As a team, the Giants have 16 pass plays that have covered at least 20 yards. Engram leads the team with four such plays while Shepherd and Slayton are right behind with three such plays.

New England Patriots Passing Defense

New England has faced a lot of pass attempts from the opposition in the early going but they've been up to the task. In the opener, New England shut down Ben Roethlisberger for the most part as they gave up 277 yards through the air in the opener: most of those came with the game well in hand. The Patriots then held Miami to 186 yards in week 2 with most of those coming in garbage time. New England limited the Dolphins to a miserable 16.1 passer rating in the contest. Against the Jets with their third-string quarterback, the Patriots allowed only 98 yards through the air. The Patriots gave up a season-high 280 yards through the air against the Bills in week 4 but made the clutch plays when it mattered. New England returned to form in week 5, holding Washington to 119 yards through the air while recording six sacks.

Collins leads the team with 4.5 sacks on the season. Winovich has four sacks while Butler, Michael Bennett (five tackles) and Van Noy have each contributed 2.5 on the season. Devin McCourty (13 tackles) has five pass defenses while Collins Sr. and Jason McCourty each have contributed four to spearhead that category. Devin McCourty paces the team with four interceptions while Collins (TD) has three: J.C. Jackson (five tackles, three pass defenses) has two while Jason McCourty and Stephon Gilmore (TD) each have one. As a team, New England has 24 sacks, 35 pass defenses and 11 interceptions with two of those being returned for scores.

Stats

NYG

  • 7th in pass play percentage (64.91 percent)
  • 19th in completion percentage (63.6)
  • 15th in passing yards per game (248.8)
  • Tied for 20th in TD passes (six)
  • Tied for 23rd in INT thrown (five)
  • 25th in net yards per pass attempt (6.3)
  • Tied for 5th in longest pass play (75 yards)
  • 26th in passer rating (82.4)

NE

  • 32nd in pass play percentage against (69.28 percent)
  • 1st in net passing yards per game allowed (160.4)
  • 1st in completion percentage allowed (54.2)
  • 1st in TD passes allowed (zero)
  • 1st in INT (11)
  • 1st in sacks (24)
  • 1st in passer rating allowed (44)
  • 1st in net yards per pass attempt (4.5)

Who has the Edge?

The Giants are dealing with some injury woes to their pass catchers. Shepherd is already out after sustaining his second concussion of the season and could be out long term. Engram didn't practice Monday with a knee injury and that is something to be monitored as well. Throw in that Jones is a rookie quarterback and how Bill Belichick's teams tend to chew up young QBs and you see where this is going. New England has decimated opposing passing games this season and is first in most statistical defensive categories. Give the Patriots the massive edge here.

Update (10/10/19): Engram has been ruled officially out for the game. He leads the team with 33 receptions for 373 yards and two touchdowns.

Advantage: New England Patriots

New England Patriots Passing Offense
vs. New York Giants Passing Defense

New England Patriots Passing Offense

New England may not be the same weapons in their arsenal in the passing game as in years past but they still have plenty of weapons to work with in that department. The Patriots have a talented receiver group featuring Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett that makes them that much more dangerous. Throw in Burkhead and White as pass-catching backs and there are a ton of guys to try and cover. The Patriots threw for 373 yards in the opener against Pittsburgh and 264 yards against the Dolphins in week 2. New England racked up 320 yards through the air against the Jets in week 3 but was limited to a season-low 150 yards against the Bills in week 4. The Patriots bounced back in week 5 against the Redskins as they threw for 348 yards despite taking four sacks.

Tom Brady has completed 118 of 187 passes for 1,409 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. He's been sacked seven times for a loss of 52 yards. Jarrett Stidham is two of four for 14 yards with an interception while Edelman, who played quarterback in college, hit his lone pass attempt for 32 yards: he also leads the team with 29 catches for 336 yards plus a pair of scores. White (22 receptions, 178 yards, TD), Dorsett (15 catches, 197 yards, three TD), Burkhead (14 grabs, 117 yards) and Gordon (19 catches, 280 yards, TD) are all dangerous options in the passing game. New England has reeled in 23 passes of at least 20 yards this season: Gordon has six such plays while Dorsett has three to pace the team. New England chose to release tight end Ben Watson when his roster exemption following his four-game suspension for PEDs ended Monday afternoon, leaving Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo as the team’s tight end duo.

New York Giants Passing Defense

New York has had their problems against the pass this season and that’s a major part of their struggles on the defensive side of the ball.  New York was gashed for 405 yards through the air in the opener by Dallas. The Giants followed that up by allowing 253 yards to the Bills in week 2 and then getting torched by allowing 380 yards to Tampa Bay in week 3. Last week against the Redskins, New York had their best showing, holding Washington to 144 yards in the victory. Against Minnesota in week five, the Giants gave up 306 yards through the air, marking the third time in five games that they have given up a 300-yard game this season.

Golden leads the team with 4.5 sacks on the year while Ximines and Dexter Lawrence (13 tackles, forced fumble) each have two this season. Jenkins leads the team with six pass defenses while Peppers and Alec Ogletree (13 tackles) each have three. Jenkins and Connelly each have two interceptions to share the team lead while Peppers (TD) has one for the Giants. As a team, the Giants have 13 sacks, 18 pass defenses and five interceptions on the year, with one defensive touchdown.

Stats

NE

  • 18th in pass play percentage (58.65 percent)
  • 22nd in completion percentage (63)
  • 6th in net passing yards per game (279.2)
  • Tied for 8th in TD passes (10)
  • Tied for 7th in INT thrown (two)
  • 12th in net yards per pass attempt (7.3)
  • Tied for 15th in longest pass play (58 yards)
  • 12th in passer rating (97)

NYG

  • 5th in pass play percentage against (53.18 percent)
  • 28th in passing yards per game allowed (279.4)
  • 21st in completion percentage allowed (67.5)
  • Tied for 26th in TD passes allowed (10)
  • Tied for 5th in INT (five)
  • Tied for 12th in sacks (13)
  • 25th in passer rating allowed (106.7)
  • 31st in net yards per pass attempt (9.1)

Who has the Edge?

The Giants have been carved up through the air this season and their inability to stop opposing teams was showcased last week. Minnesota had struggled to move the ball through the air in their first four games and promptly threw for more than 300 yards against the New York secondary. Brady is coming off a dissection of the Redskins' secondary last week with nearly 350 yards on the ledger. He has to be salivating at facing a New York defense that has made almost everyone they've faced look like an All-Pro.

Advantage: New England Patriots

Intangibles

New York Giants

New York is 25th in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 19.4 points per game this season. The Giants are 16th in the league in total offense with 364.8 yards per game and stand 17th in yards per play with an average of 5.7 yards per snap. New York is 24th in scoring defense as they allow 25 points per game. The Giants are 30th in total defense as they give up 409.4 yards per game and stand 30th in yards per play as they allow 6.5 yards per snap. New York is tied for 29th in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are -5 this season.

The Giants are 20th in the league in red-zone success as they convert 53.33 percent of their trips inside the 20 into touchdowns this season. New York is in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th in red zone defense as they give up touchdowns on 52.94 percent of their opponents’ trips inside the 20 this season. The Giants are 13th in the league in third down conversions as they convert 41.54 percent of their chances. New York is good getting off the field on third down defensively as they are 12th: opposing teams are converting 37.29 percent of their opportunities. The Giants are 22nd in time of possession as they hold the ball 48.45 percent of the time this season.

Aldrick Rosas has hit all 11 extra point attempts and four of five field goal tries this season with a long of 36. Riley Dixon has been good at flipping the field in the punt game: he averages 48.1 yards per punt on 20 boots with a 47.5-yard net average. He has dropped 10 punts inside the opposing 20-yard line with one touchback this season. Corey Ballentine averages 26.3 yards on seven kick returns with a long of 52. In the punt return game, T.J. Jones averages 12 yards on eight runbacks with a long of 60 while Peppers has a 3.5-yard average on two runbacks with a long of five. Tate has one punt return that covered 17 yards. Dexter Lawrence blocked an extra point against Tampa Bay back in week 3.

New England Patriots

The Patriots are very good on the offensive side of the ball this season as they are 3rd in the league with 31 points per contest. New England is 12th in total offense as they average 378.2 yards per contest while ranking 19th in yards per play as they pick up 5.5 yards per snap. The Patriots are solid defensively, ranking 1st in the league in scoring defense by allowing a paltry 6.8 points per contest. New England is 1st in the league in total defense by allowing 238.4 yards per game and 1st in yards per play by allowing only 4.1 yards per snap. In giveaway/takeaway, the Patriots are 1st with a +7 ratio this season.

The Patriots have sputtered a bit in the red zone so far as they are 21st in the league in scoring touchdowns in the red zone as they convert only 50 percent of their chances. Defensively, New England has been sharp as they are tied for 1st in red zone defense by allowing only 25 percent of drives to reach the red zone to end in touchdowns. The Patriots are in the middle of the pack in third-down conversions, ranking 16th by converting 39.73 percent of their third-down situations on the year. New England’s defense is currently 1st in those situations as they held the opposition to a meager 12.7 percent success rate on their third downs. The Patriots are 3rd in the league in time of possession by holding the ball 54.49 percent of the time this season.

Stephen Gostkowski was 11 of 15 on extra points and seven of eight on field goal tries this season with a long of 41 this season. He was placed on injured reserve prior to the week 5 game against Washington and is slated to undergo hip surgery that will knock him out for the year. The team signed Mike Nugent to take over the kicking duties: he is three of four on extra points and two of two on field goals with a long of 37. Jake Bailey has averaged 46.4 yards on 28 punts with a 43.4-yard net average. He has dropped 12 punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line with one touchback. Brandon Bolden averages 19.5 yards on four kickoff returns while Gunner Olszewski averages 8.6 yards on 16 punt returns with a long of 20 this season. J.C. Jackson blocked a punt against Buffalo.

Who has the Edge?

The Giants are struggling on the defensive side of the ball and having a rookie quarterback makes things a challenge. New York has sputtered in the turnover battle and facing a New England team that is tied for the league lead in the takeaway/giveaway department is a daunting task. Factor in that the Patriots lead the league in a slew of defensive categories, have solid special teams play and they have a massive advantage in the coaching department: it's safe to say that New England has the edge here.

One issue could be the weather. Heavy rain and wind is projected. The temperature is expected to be in the low 50's and with wind up to 17 mph gusts.

Advantage: New England Patriots

Final Outlook

The Giants are a team facing some serious concerns on the injury front. Shepherd is already out, which is going to push Tate and Slayton to contribute more in the passing game. Engram and Barkley are the team's other two big playmakers offensively and both are questionable at best. It's tough to win a gunfight when you come armed with a Swiss Army knife and your opponent has a bazooka. That's the kind of uphill climb that New York is facing here. The Giants have to go on the road with a rookie quarterback against a ferocious pass rush and a ball-hawking secondary. Even at full strength, it's a hard sell to like the visitors: with injuries and question marks dotting the landscape, it's almost impossible to like New York's chances. This screams another one-sided win for New England, especially at home, as they run their mark to 6-0.

Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements

The Giants are going to be a hurting unit in this contest, especially on the offensive side of the ball. New York has ruled Barkley, Engram, Shepherd and Gallman out for this contest, taking four major skill players out of the mix. With the Giants missing their top two backs, Hilliman and Penny are going to see the work: the team elevated Austin Walter from the practice squad as well. Golden Tate, Darius Slayton and Cody Latimer are the starting receivers with Shepherd out of the mix. With Engram missing, the Giants will lean on Rhett Ellison and Garrett Dickerson. The only other question mark surrounds starting strongside linebacker Lorenzo Carter, who is questionable with a neck injury: if he doesn't play, Tuzar Skipper likely gets the start.

New England has one injury that will take a player out of the lineup and a series of question marks. Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury, which elevates Jakobi Meyers into the #3 receiver role. Gordon and Edelman are both questionable at the other receiver spots, but both are expected to play. Burkhead is questionable with a foot injury after missing last week's game: if he doesn't play again, you'll see more of Michel, White and Brandon Bolden. Shilique Calhoun, a backup outside linebacker, is questionable with an ankle injury while safety Patrick Chung is questionable with a heel injury. Outside of Dorsett, there aren't any real major impactful injuries like the Giants are facing.

The weather could end up being a factor in this one depending on whether the rain in the forecast hits. The game-time temperature is expected to be in the mid-50s for this contest with cloudy skies. Winds are expected to come from the north-northeast around 20 miles an hour with gusts up to 30 miles per hour. There is a 45 to 55 percent chance of rain, though that percentage is on the rise as the game wears on. It's something that bears monitoring.

When the initial lines opened for this contest, New England was a 14-point favorite with the over/under set at 46.5 points. As of Thursday afternoon, the line has shifted slightly to New England being a hefty 17-point favorite in the contest. The over/under has ticked downward slightly as it has moved to 42.5 points in this contest. Currently, the moneyline shows New England as a steep -1200 to -1500 favorite while the Giants can be found as a +750 to +850 underdog depending on the sportsbook. As of this writing, 76 percent of the bets are backing the Patriots -17 points. When it comes to the moneyline, a solid majority, 64 percent of the wagers, are backing the Patriots as the home team. Meanwhile, 56 percent of bets are projecting this one to go over the total.

New York was facing an uphill climb in this one if they were fully healthy, given that they have a rookie quarterback squaring off against the defensive wizardry of Belichick. Take away the Giants' top two running backs, their top receiver and their leading pass catcher at tight end and the dynamic shifts completely. New York has been a sieve defensively, giving up more than 300 yards through the air three times in five weeks. After seeing what Brady did to Washington last week, it wouldn't be a surprise for him to do that again here. The Giants are going to struggle offensively and that ends up doing them in here as New England cruises to the victory.

Prediction: New England Patriots -17

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

Additional Insiders' Best Bets

Full-game Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

We know that New England can move the ball and put points on the board without much of an issue. The Patriots are facing a Giants defense that has given up at least 28 points in four of their five games this season. Meanwhile, New England has put up at least 30 points in four of their five games on the year. The Patriots have been terrific defensively, allowing only two offensive touchdowns to the opposition so far this year. That doesn't bode well for New York's chances, especially given up how poorly their defense has played this season. Will the Giants be better on either side of the ball to help turn things around?

The under is 6-1 in the Giants' last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game, 5-2 in their last seven in October and 7-3 in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New England has seen the under go 4-0 in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 5-1 in their last six overall. The under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in New England: look for this one to follow suit as the Patriots continue to play suffocating defense.

Prediction: Under 43

Half-time Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

New England has had some slow starts offensively this season. The Patriots were up just 13-0 at the half against Miami in week 2 and held a 12-7 edge against Washington last week before winning convincingly. Normally, a double-digit line at the half would be rather concerning to try and cover but we're looking at a Giants team with a rookie quarterback against a stifling New England defense. Factor in that Sterling Shepherd is out and Barkley is considered doubtful and it's an uphill climb for the Giants to move the ball. Give the points and take the Patriots here.

Prediction: New England Patriots -10

Half-time Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

New England has held the edge at the half in each of their contests this season. The Patriots were up 20-0 over Pittsburgh, 13-0 on Miami, 20-0 on the Jets, 13-3 on Buffalo and 12-7 against Washington. For those scoring at home, that's a 78-10 halftime advantage for New England in their first five games. New York has trailed at the half 21-7 to Dallas, 21-7 to Buffalo, 28-10 to Tampa Bay and 18-7 to Minnesota: they did hold a 17-3 lead on Washington at the break. The Giants have been outscored 91-48 in the first half this season. Given the way the teams have played, this one likely edges over the number at the half thanks to the Patriots taking advantage of New York's suspect defense.

Prediction: Over 23
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.