Green Bay Packers (4-1; 3-2 ATS; 4-1 O/U) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-2; 2-3 ATS; 2-3 O/U)
NFL: Sunday, October 15, 2017 at 1:00pm EST
Line: Green Bay -3.5
The Minnesota Vikings will host the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North showdown Sunday afternoon from U.S. Bank Stadium. The Packers are coming off a tremendous 35-31 road win over the Cowboys, and the Vikings defeated the Bears by a 20-17 score on Monday night. Minnesota edged the Packers 17-14 at home in the first meeting last season, and Green Bay answered with a 38-25 home win of their own in the second meeting.
Rodgers Leads Packers to Comeback Win Over Cowboys
The Green Bay Packers rallied from a 21-6 deficit in their thrilling 35-31 road win over the Cowboys last weekend. It was a vintage performance from Aaron Rodgers, completing 19 of 29 passes for 221 yards with three touchdowns. The 33-year old star quarterback is having another phenomenal season, accumulating 1367 passing yards with an NFL leading 13 touchdowns against three interceptions. Rodgers posted a 5:1 TD to INT ratio in two games against the Vikings last season. Rookie running back Aaron Jones came out of nowhere and rushed for 125 yards in the win last week. The 22-year old rookie was drafted in the fifth round of this year’s draft and has now registered 174 rushing yards in two games. Davante Adams came up big in the win, bringing in seven catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns. The fourth-year wide receiver leads the Packers with 285 receiving yards. The Packers offense is on a roll thanks to the outstanding play from Rodgers.
The Packers defense did not play well in the win against Dallas, allowing 408 total yards, and the Cowboys were able to go 7 for 12 on third downs. Nick Perry made the lone sack and has now collected 2.5 sacks on the year. The Packers have won three straight, and are in sole possession of first place in the NFC North.
Vikings’ Vaunted Defense Prevails in Win Over Bears
The Minnesota Vikings’ strong defense was on full display in their solid win 20-17 road win over the Bears on Monday night. Sam Bradford made his return to action, however, he was clearly was not 100% and exited just before halftime after completing 5 of 11 passes for 36 yards. Bradford will likely be listed as questionable again for this contest. Case Keenum came in to relieve Bradford and was outstanding, connecting on 17 of 21 passes for 140 yards with one touchdown and no picks. The 29-year old quarterback has played well in two of his four performances this season, recording 895 passing yards with a 4:0 TD to INT ratio. The Vikings running game was very productive in the win, rushing for 159 yards as a team with Jerick McKinnon leading the way with 95 yards on 16 carries. The 25-year old running back saw limited carries in the first four games behind rookie back Dalvin Cook who is now injured and out for the season. The Vikings will have McKinnon and Latavius Murray split the carries the rest of the way. McKinnon also led all receivers with six catches for 51 yards on Monday night. Vikings’ leading receiver Stefon Diggs was injured after making one catch for four yards and is questionable for this one. He has accumulated 395 receiving yards on the season.
The Vikings stifling defense was solid in the win over the Bears, conceding only 274 total yards and limited them to a 3 for 12 mark on third downs. Minnesota’s defense been outstanding in three straight games and they have particularly excelled against the rush. The Vikings are now tied with the Lions for second place in the NFC North.
The Green Bay Packers are:
- 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Minnesota Vikings are:
- 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.
- 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games overall.
- 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after recording less than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
I am siding with the Vikings in this matchup. The Vikings defense is a force, allowing 17 or fewer points in three straight games, so I expect them to contain Rodgers and the Packers offense. Furthermore, the Vikings running game was terrific last week led by Jerick McKinnon, and the Packers have shown they will give up yards on the ground, allowing an average of 121 rushing yards per game, plus I also like what I have seen from Keenum. The Vikings held the Packers to 14 points in Minnesota last season and I am confident they are the play in this contest.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings tremendous defense should be able to slow Rodgers down, especially on their home field, and the Vikings won’t score big points. Minnesota has been able to slow down their opposition in four of five games this season, and the under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record. Minnesota is a lower scoring team and they wont score big points with Keenum at quarterback, plus the under has been a common trend between these rivals as it has converted in four of the last five meetings.