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New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos,
10-15-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#273 New York
Giants
#274 Denver
Broncos

Sunday, October 15, 2017 at 8:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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New York Giants (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) vs. Denver Broncos (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U)

NFL: Sunday, October 15, 2017, Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado, 8:30 pm ET

Spread: Denver -12; Over/Under: 40

It’s an inter-conference matchup in primetime on NBC’s Sunday Night Football in the Mile High City. The New York Giants are on the road as they travel to face the Denver Broncos Sunday night. New York remained winless as they fell 27-22 to the Chargers at home last Sunday. Denver is coming off a bye last week: they beat the Raiders 16-10 at home in their last game back on October 1. The Broncos hold a 6-5 lead in the all-time regular season series, including a 41-23 road win in the last meeting on September 15, 2013. The teams met once in the postseason, with the Giants taking Super Bowl XX 39-20 back on January 25, 1987.

New York Giants Still Seeking First Win With Decimated Receiving Corps

New York had a chance to knock off the Chargers and pick up their first victory of the season. The Giants, though, were racked by injuries that have a long term effect on the rest of the season, made critical miscues that ended up costing them the game. New York led 9-0 after one quarter and took a 22-17 lead early in the fourth quarter. They gave up 10 points in the final five minutes, committing both their turnovers in that critical span, erasing their five point edge. The Giants were outgained 382-335, gave up 21 first downs while picking up 18 and lost the time of possession battle 31:45 to 28:15 in the game. New York forced one turnover and recorded a safety but it wasn’t enough to hang in for the win.

The Giants enter this contest 11th in the league in passing offense with 248.6 yards per contest and a miserable 30th in rushing with 77.8 yards per game. New York is 29th in the league in scoring offense as they average 16 points a game and stand 24th in scoring defense by giving up 24.4 points per contest. Eli Manning is 137 of 202 for 1,338 yards with eight touchdowns against five interceptions while getting sacked 13 times: he adds 21 yards and a score on the ground. The run game is mediocre: Orleans Darkwa leads the team with 21 carries for 122 yards plus a score while rookie Wayne Gallman adds 22 carries for 99 yards. The receiving corps needs an overhaul after the Chargers game: Odell Beckham Jr. (25 catches, 302 yards, three TD), Brandon Marshall (18 receptions, 154 yards) and Dwayne Harris were all placed on injured reserve and are expected to miss the rest of the season. That puts pressure on rookie tight end Evan Engram (19 catches, 200 yards, TD) and Sterling Shepard (22 receptions, 263 yards, TD) to step up. Shepard is going to miss a couple weeks with a sprained ankle. Aldrick Rosas has booted all eight extra points and four of five field goals with a long of 41.

Denver Broncos Look to Win Coming Out of Bye

Denver had the week off last week, giving them a couple weeks to get healthy and prepare for this contest. The Broncos are chasing the Chiefs for the AFC West lead so a win would be important, especially with a three game road trip coming up after this one. Denver jumped to a 10-0 lead after the opening quarter and held the Raiders off in their last game. The Broncos outgained the Raiders 298-254 and held a 16-11 edge in first downs. Denver controlled the clock by a 32:57 to 27:03 margin and forced the game’s only turnover. The Broncos also capitalized on a blown fake punt by Oakland, setting up a field goal.

The Broncos enter this contest 24th in the league in passing offense with 198.3 yards per contest and 3rd in rushing with an average of 143 yards per game. Denver is 11th in the league in scoring offense with an average of 24.5 points per game and stand 7th in scoring defense as they allow 18.5 points per contest. Trevor Siemian is 79 of 126 passing for 888 yards with seven touchdowns and four picks while getting sacked 13 times. C.J. Anderson leads the Broncos and is fourth in the league with 73 carries for 330 yards plus a score. Jamaal Charles has kicked in 33 carries for 175 yards plus a score on the year. Emmanuel Sanders has reeled in a team leading 20 passes for 190 yards plus two scores while Demaryius Thomas has 18 grabs for a team high 247 yards this season. Brandon McManus has hit all 11 extra points and seven of 10 field goal attempts with a long of 46.

Trends:

New York

  • Giants are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
  • Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

Denver

  • Broncos are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games
  • Broncos are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass
  • Broncos are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record

New York is struggling and they are extremely thin at the wide receiver position now. Losing one of the guys that went down would have been bad enough, but to have three go on injured reserve and a fourth slated to miss time with an ankle sprain is too much for a struggling team. Denver is one of the top pass defenses in the league and that’s against teams that are at full speed. Against a dismantled receiver group, this one seems almost too easy. Look for the Broncos to get the win in this contest to send the Giants spiraling to 0-6 on the year.

Pick: Denver Broncos -12

The Giants are scrambling for healthy bodies at the receiver position as they promoted Travis Rudolph and Tavarres King to the active roster. It’s unclear who will end up in the starting receiver slots for this one: Roger Lewis may be on one side but it’s anyone’s guess who will be on the other. Talk about putting Eli Manning in a tough spot: throwing against Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. is no picnic in the best of situations. Dealing with that without any proven targets is like going to a knife fight with a pillowcase. Denver doesn’t have a high octane offense but they may not need one in order to take down a dismantled Giants offense.

The under is 6-1 in the Giants’ last 7 games following a ATS loss, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record and 5-2 in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Denver has seen the under go 5-1 in their last 6 games in October and 5-2 in their last 7 games following a bye week. GIven the Giants being gashed by injuries and the fact that they weren’t scoring much before that, things seem poised to go under the total here.

Under 40

4

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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