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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs,
10-15-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#269 Pittsburgh
Steelers
#270 Kansas City
Chiefs

Sunday, October 15, 2017 at 4:25pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3-0 PS, 0-5-0 O/U) vs Kansas City Chiefs (5-0 SU, 5-0-0 PS, 4-1-0 O/U)

When: 4:25 PM EDT, Sunday, October 15, 2017

Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri

Lines: Kansas City -4

Total: 46

Sunday afternoon NFL football action and the AFC North will grapple with the AFC West as the Pittsburgh Steelers head to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri to rumble with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are the league’s last unbeaten team. The Steelers are off a very bad 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville, while the Chiefs are off a 42-34 win at Houston. This is a rematch of last year’s Division Round, which the Chiefs won at home by a score of 18-16.

Roethlisberger Throws Five Picks In Loss To Jags

The Pittsburgh Steelers started the year at 2-0, but they have since lost two of their last three games and come in off a really bad 30-9 home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ben Roethlisberger really had a bad game in the loss as he threw five INTs, two of which were returned for TDs. One of his worst games ever and after the game, he stated that maybe he has lost it. Big Ben did hit 33 of 55 passes in the game for 312 yards, but it was those five INTs that did him and his team in. He has gone 5-1 and has thrown for 1433 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs while posting a 118.7 QBR in his career against the Chiefs. Antonio Brown had a very good game as he caught 10 passes for 157 yards in the contest. The defense has been good for the Steelers this year, but it did struggle at stopping the run against the Jags as they piled up 231 yards on the ground against them. They just had no answer for Leonard Fournette, who ran for 181 yards and two TDs against this defense. Now they have to face a Chiefs offense that has been very good in the early going. The Steelers were thought of as a team that could make a run at a Super Bowl berth, but they really look like a mediocre team right now. They need to get their running game going as it will take the pressure off of Big Ben and the Chiefs have struggled on the defensive side of the ball so far.  

The Steelers have been very average on offense so far this year as they come in ranked 17th in the league in total offense (331.8 ypg), 13th in passing (241.8 ypg), 24th in rushing (90.0 ypg) and 20th in scoring at 19.8 ppg. On defense, they have been very solid as they come in ranked 4th in total yards allowed (276.2 ypg), 1st against the pass (139.6 ypg) and 28th vs the run (136.6 ypg), while allowing just 17.8 ppg, which is 6th in the league.

The Chiefs Are The Last Of The Unbeatens

The Kansas City Chiefs shocked everyone at the beginning of the year with their rout of the Patriots on the road and they haven’t stopped since. They followed that up with wins over the Eagles at home, Chargers on the road, Washington at home and Houston on the road last week. All of their wins this year have been by at least a TD. The Chiefs have not been known as an offensive machine, but they have been very hot on offense to start the year. Last week against the Texans, they piled up 460 yards against a very good defense, including 323 yards through the air. Alex Smith has been known as a game manager in his career, which is something he hates to be called. Well, it has changed this year as he has hit 76.6% of his passes on the year for 1391 yards with 11 TDs and no INTs. His QBR of 125.8 leads the league, but he is just 2-3 and has thrown for 1245 yards with five TDs and two INTs against Pittsburgh in his career. He has a QBR of just 83.8 in his five games against them. Kareem Hunt has had a solid year as he has run for 609 yards, which leads the league. The Chiefs have been playing very well on offense, but their defense has not been that good and they just allowed rookie Deshaun Watson to throw for 261 yards and five TDs on them Sunday night. This defense does give Roethlisberger hope to bounce back from a very bad showing in his last game.   

Kansas City enters this contest ranked 2nd in the league in total offense (414.2 ypg), 10th in passing (258.0 ypg), 2nd in rushing (156.2 ypg) and 1st in scoring at 32.8 ppg. On defense, they come in ranked 27th in total yards allowed (366.0 ypg), 25th against the pass (248.0 ypg) and 21st vs the run (118.0 ypg), while allowing just 22.2 ppg, which is 17th in the league.

Trends

Pittsburgh is:

  • 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
  • The road team is 2-7 ATS the last nine games in this series.

Kansas City is:

  • 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win
  • 7-2 ATS their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record

The Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in the league right now and already have a road win over the New England Patriots, but can they keep it going against what will be an angry Ben Roethlisberger after he threw five picks last week. If that happens here, that will not be good news at all for Pittsburgh as this Kansas Offense will make him pay. The Steelers have played defense very well so far, but the Houston Texans had a very good defense and the Chiefs put up 42 points on that defense. The Kansas City offense is weak, but the Steelers have averaged 331.8 ypg and 19.8 ppg overall, including just 344.7 ypg and 17.3 ppg in their last three games. I just don’t see the Pittsburgh offense keeping up with a Kansas City offense that can do very little wrong right now. Take Kansas City to win by at least a TD.

Pick: Kansas City -4

The Pittsburgh Steelers have many weapons on their team, but they have really struggled to score of late as they have averaged 17.3 ppg over their last three games, while the Chiefs are the league’s top scoring team at 32.8 ppg. The Chiefs have really struggled on defense this year and that may just be what the Steelers need to get their offense rolling. The KC offense looks unstoppable right now as Alex Smith has transformed from a game manager to an elite QB this year and he should have a good showing in this one, even though the Pittsburgh defense has looked pretty good in the early going. I really can’t see how this game doesn’t reach 50 points.

Pick: Over 46

Confidence: 5

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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