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Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans,
10-16-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#275 Indianapolis
Colts
#276 Tennessee
Titans

Monday, October 16, 2017 at 8:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Indianapolis Colts (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U)

NFL: Monday, October 16, 2017, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee, 8:30 pm ET

Spread: N/A; Over/Under: N/A

It’s a clash between AFC South foes down in the Music City. The Indianapolis Colts are on the road as they battle the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football to close week 6 of the NFL schedule. Indianapolis pulled out a 26-23 overtime win over San Francisco at home last Sunday to get back in the win column. Tennessee was dropped 16-10 on the road by Miami last Sunday as their offense was completely flat. The Colts have a 31-13 advantage in the all-time regular season series and have won the last 11 meetings. That includes a 24-17 home win in the most recent matchup on November 20, 2016.

Indianapolis Colts Look to Even Record

Indianapolis bounced back from a drubbing by the Seahawks on the road in week 4 by rallying to win in overtime against the 49ers. That gave the Colts their lone win in their four games against the NFC this season: in a scheduling oddity, they’ve faced just one AFC team in the first five contests. Indianapolis led 23-9 with under 10 minutes to play in the fourth quarter but allowed San Francisco to tie the game on a fourth down play with 20 seconds to go in regulation. The Colts managed to win the game with 1:38 to play in overtime. Indianapolis had a 447-402 edge in total offense, 25 first downs to the 49ers’ 23 and controlled time of possession as they held the ball for 37:17 to San Francisco’s 31:05. The Colts committed the game’s only turnover.

The Colts are 22nd in the league in passing offense with 202 yards per game this season and stand 17th in rushing with 100 yards per contest. Indianapolis is 22nd in the league in scoring offense with 19.4 points per contest and rank dead last in scoring defense by giving up 32.8 points per game. Jacoby Brissett has hit 77 of 127 throws for 997 yards with two touchdowns against three interceptions while adding 83 yards and three scores on the ground. Scott Tolzien is nine of 18 for 128 yards with two interceptions. Frank Gore leads the Colts with 75 carries for 239 yards plus two scores while rookie Marlon Mack chips in 25 carries for 112 yards and a pair of touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton leads the team with 24 catches for 466 yards plus a score. Tight end Jack Doyle (17 grabs, 163 yards) and Donte Moncrief (11 receptions, 174 yards, TD) are secondary targets. Adam Vinatieri is eight of nine on extra points and nine of 10 on field goals with a long of 52.

Tennessee Titans Hope to Get Healthy

Tennessee was banged up in the contest against the Dolphins and injuries took their toll in a sloppy contest. The Titans fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter and, after battling back to tie the score in the third quarter, gave up the eventual winning score with under 11 minutes to play. Tennessee had a 188-178 advantage in total offense, a 14-12 edge in first downs and held the ball for 30:15 to Miami’s 29:45 in the contest. Both teams turned the ball over twice but the Titans gave up a touchdown on a fumble return. Tennessee also was sacked six times and committed 11 penalties in the contest.

The Titans enter the game 28th in the league in passing offense as they put up 183.8 yards per game and 9th in rushing with 124.8 yards per contest. Tennessee is tied for 14th in the league in scoring offense with 22 points per game and stand a miserable tied for 30th in scoring defense as they allow 28.4 points per game. Marcus Mariota is 66 of 110 for 792 yards with three touchdowns against three interceptions while rushing for 116 yards plus three scores. He missed the Miami game with a strained hamstring and is questionable here. Matt Cassel is 25 of 42 for 162 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. DeMarco Murray leads the Titans with 56 carries for 273 yards plus a score while Derrick Henry (43 carries, 187 yards, TD) is a solid secondary back. Delanie Walker (21 receptions, 244 yards) is the team’s leading receiver from the tight end spot. Rishard Matthews (20 catches, team-high 284 yards, TD) and Eric Decker (16 grabs, 138 yards) are the outside targets in the passing game. Ryan Succop has hit all 11 extra points and 11 of 12 field goal attempts with a long of 52.

Trends:

Indianapolis

  • Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game
  • Colts are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
  • Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win

Tennessee

  • Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games

Indianapolis has their work cut out for them: they went 1-3 against the NFC and stand 1-0 against the AFC. Of course, their win against an AFC opponent came at home against the Browns. The Colts are still trying to figure out some pieces: Mack had a strong performance against the 49ers and that likely will lead to a more even split in the run game with Gore. Tennessee seems to be a bit healthier, at least on paper, and playing at home, you have to lean toward the Titans here. Look for the Titans to reach the .500 mark as they pick up the victory.

Pick: Tennessee Titans

This one has the distinct possibility of being a stinker from the perspective of quarterback play. It could end up turning into a battle of backup QBs depending on how things pan out. We already know that Andrew Luck has been ruled out for this contest and Mariota is questionable with his hamstring issue. It’s safe to say that a contest with Brissett against Cassel isn’t going to be a ratings bonanza by any stretch of the imagination. That could turn this one into a ground and pound system, which would skew in Tennessee’s favor with Murray and Henry doing damage. That could be even more prevalent with the Colts being thin at linebacker.

The over is 5-0 in the Colts’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 6-1 in their last seven in October, 6-1 in their last seven in week 6, 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-1 in their last five on Monday Night Football. Tennessee has seen the over go 10-2-1 in their last 13 against teams with a losing record, 5-1 in their last six after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game, 9-2 in their last 11 against AFC South opponents and 10-4-1 in their last 15 after a straight up loss. Even with mediocre offenses, dismal defenses seem poised to send this one over the total.

Over

4

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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