Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#275 Buffalo Bills vs.
#276 Tennessee Titans
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 8:15pm EDT
Nissan Stadium, Nashville
Written by Chris King

It’s the final game of week 6 of the NFL schedule with a clash between AFC division leaders on the gridiron in Music City. The Buffalo Bills are on the road as they travel to face the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. Buffalo comes in off an impressive 38-20 road win on Sunday Night Football over Kansas City last week in their previous contest. Tennessee rolled to a 37-19 road victory over hapless Jacksonville last Sunday in their most recent game. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Titans own a 28-17 advantage. Their 42-16 win at home on October 13, 2020 on a Tuesday night snapped a three-game Bills win streak in the series.

Buffalo Bills Seeking Fifth Straight Win

Buffalo started the year with a disappointing loss to Pittsburgh but has reeled off four straight wins since, outscoring the opposition by a 156-41 margin in that span. The Bills are on the final leg of a revenge tour, having blasted Houston 40-0 in week 3 after losing to them in the 2019 AFC Wild Card round, and then drubbing the Chiefs last week on the road after falling to them in the regular season and the AFC Championship Game last season. Buffalo took the lead for good midway through the second quarter on a 35-yard laser of a touchdown pass from Josh Allen to Emmanuel Sanders. That started a run of 17 unanswered points that gave the Bills a 24-10 lead. The Chiefs never got closer than 11 the rest of the way. Buffalo rolled up a 436-392 edge in total offense and forced four turnovers, including a pick-six, while not committing any. The Bills overcame losing the first down battle 29-20 and the time of possession 32:25 to 27:35 in the contest thanks to their quick strike offense and opportunistic defense.

On the year, the Bills are ninth in the league in passing offense with an average of 270 yards per game and fifth in rushing with an average of 140.4 yards per contest. Buffalo leads the league in scoring offense by putting up 34.4 points per contest and they are first in the league in scoring defense by allowing 12.8 points per game. Josh Allen is 114 of 183 passing for 1,370 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. He is second on the team with 188 rushing yards and two scores. Mitch Trubisky has hit both his pass attempts for nine yards while adding 27 yards plus a score on the ground. Devin Singletary (55 carries, 284 yards, TD) and Zack Moss (46 carries, 184 yards, three TD) have shared the workload on the ground this season. Stefon Diggs leads the team with 28 receptions for 374 yards plus a score on the season. Cole Beasley (26 grabs, 215 yards), Emmanuel Sanders (19 receptions, 322 yards, four TD) and Dawson Knox (18 catches, 261 yards, five TD) each have gone over the 200-yard mark in receiving this season. Tyler Bass has drilled all 19 extra point attempts and 11 of 12 field goal attempts with a long of 48 this season.

Tennessee Titans Try to Extend AFC South Advantage

Tennessee bounced back from an overtime loss to the Jets by hammering the Jaguars on the road last week. The Titans are 3-2 on the season but hold a two-game edge over the rest of the division as Indianapolis and Houston are both 1-4 while Jacksonville is 0-5 on the year. Against Jacksonville, Tennessee took a 7-0 lead one minute into the game and never let Jacksonville get even again. The Jaguars got within a point twice, the last at 14-13 with 9:55 to play in the first half, but Tennessee scored 10 points to take an 11-point halftime edge and cruised the rest of the way. Tennessee was outgained 454-368 in total offense, gave up 24 first downs while picking up 23 but held a 31:30 to 28:30 advantage in time of possession. They forced a pair of turnovers, including a scoop-six, while not committing a turnover in the contest.

This season, the Titans are 26th in the league in passing offense with 221.4 yards per contest and third in rushing offense by averaging 167.8 yards per game. Tennessee stands 10th in the league in scoring offense with 26.4 points per game and 24th in scoring defense by allowing 26 points per game. Ryan Tannehill is 110 of 174 passing for 1,251 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s second on the team with 130 rushing yards plus a score though he has been sacked 20 times already this season. Derrick Henry leads the league with 142 carries for 640 yards and seven touchdowns this season. Jeremy McNichols leads the team with 17 receptions for 160 yards plus a score. Henry (14 grabs, 125 yards), Julio Jones (12 receptions, team-high 204 yards), Chester Rogers (13 catches, 179 yards, TD) and A.J. Brown (10 grabs, 130 yards, TD) are all over the century mark in receiving yards this season. Michael Badgley was one of two on extra points and missed his lone field goal try this season. Randy Bullock is 10 of 11 on extra points and nine of 11 on field goal attempts with a long of 46 this year.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Tennessee is at home and rolled Buffalo last season but this Bills team is different than what we saw last season. The Bills lead the league in both scoring offense and scoring defense. They’ve generated 15 takeaways this season and they are limiting opposing teams to 78.4 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry on the ground while surrendering just one rushing touchdown in five games. Buffalo’s offense is even more explosive with the addition of Sanders and the emergence of Knox in the passing game. Henry was held in check in Tennessee’s win over the Bills last year, running the ball 19 times for 57 yards, though he did score twice. Tennessee’s offensive line has struggled mightily this season when it comes to pass protection, which could prove problematic against a deep Buffalo defensive line group. Getting Brown and Jones back helps the Tennessee passing game but it’s tough to see the Titans slowing the Bills enough here. Give the points and take the Bills as they make it five straight wins heading into the bye.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills -5.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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We’ve seen the Bills pile up a ton of points during this win streak as they’ve hung at least 35 points in each of their four straight wins. With that said, three of their five games have stayed under the number, partially due to Buffalo stifling opposing offenses: they have a pair of shutouts on the books this season. Tennessee has seen the over hit in three of their five games, including each of their last two. The Titans have had issues defensively, giving up at least 27 points three times already this season. That includes giving up 27 to a Jets team that has scored a combined 40 points in their other four games. The Bills have seen the over go 5-0 in their last five after picking up at least 350 yards of offense in their previous game. Tennessee has seen the over go 4-0 in their last four after giving up at least 350 yards of offense, 5-0 in their last five after a straight up win of at least 14 points and 6-0-1 in their last seven in October. Look for the Bills to exploit the Titans’ defense for another big offensive night, helping this one over the number.

Prediction: Over 53
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Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.