Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#277 Kansas City Chiefs vs.
#278 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 8:20pm EDT
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Written by The Admiral

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season brings the rematch of the Super Bowl LV, as Tampa Bay hosts Kansas City at Raymond James Stadium, so we’ve prepared the best Chiefs vs. Buccaneers betting pick and odds.  

Nearly two years ago, the Bucs trounced the Chiefs 31-9 as 3-point home dogs to win their second championship. Tampa Bay is a small 1-point underdog this time around, while Kansas City is listed as a -120 money line fave with a total of 45.5 points.

The Chiefs look to get back to winning ways

After winning their first two games of the season over the Arizona Cardinals 44-21 and Los Angeles Chargers 27-24, the Kansas City Chiefs suffered a tough 20-17 defeat at the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. Both teams played very well on the defensive end, and the Chiefs couldn’t score since taking a 17-10 lead with 7:56 left on the clock in the third quarter. 

Patrick Mahomes went 20-of-35 for 262 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. He also led the Chiefs in rushing yards with 26, as KC’s rushing game was a non-factor at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Clyde Edwards-Helaire finished with zero yards on seven carries; JuJu Smith-Schuster led the way for the receiving corps with five catches for 89 yards, while Travis Kelce had four receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown. 

"Whenever you're playing a tough game like this one, you have to execute at a high level," Patrick Mahomes said. "Our schedule gets no easier, so we have to get better quickly. If we don't, the Ls are going to start piling up." 

The Chiefs held the Colts to 259 total yards and 3.0 yards per rush. They sacked Matt Ryan five times for 45 yards and forced a couple of turnovers. Kansas City’s defense now ranks 15th in the NFL in passing yards (227.3 per game) and ninth in rushing yards (86.7 per game).

The Bucs’ offense continues to struggle

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped to 2-1 straight up and ATS following a 14-12 home loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 3. Playing as slim 1.5-point favorites, the Bucs trailed 14-3 at halftime. They found the end zone to make it 14-12 with 14 seconds left on the clock in the fourth quarter but failed to tie the game with a two-point conversion. 

Tom Brady completed 31 of his 42 passing attempts for 271 yards and a TD. Mike Evans served a one-game suspension, so Russell Gage took over and posted 87 yards and a touchdown on 12 receptions. Leonard Fournette rushed 12 times for just 35 yards, but he also had five receptions for 35 yards. 

"There were a few things that happened that we can't let happen," Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles said. "We had six crucial penalties. We made dumb mistakes." 

The Buccaneers picked off Aaron Rodgers once and held the Packers’ rushing to a paltry 67 yards on 25 attempts. Tampa Bay now boasts the lowest-scoring defense in the NFL (9.0 points per game) and ranks fifth in rushing yards allowed per contest (79.3). The Bucs desperately need more from their offense after tallying 17.0 points per game through the first three weeks. Both Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Julio Jones (knee) were limited in Wednesday’s practice and are doubtful to play Sunday against KC. 

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The Chiefs struggled to cope with the Colts’ stout defense. Now, Kansas City will have to deal with an even better defensive unit, and I’m looking for the Bucs’ front seven to make the difference. Tampa Bay’s run D is outstanding, and the Bucs will put heavy pressure on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offensive line. 

Mike Evans’ return will be a huge boost for Tampa’s offense. The Chiefs’ secondary is fragile, so I’m expecting the Bucs to finally get things going on the offensive end. Tampa Bay is 11-4 SU and ATS in its last 15 outings at home and 5-0 ATS in its previous five showings as an underdog.

Prediction: Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.0 (-110)

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Slowing down Patrick Mahomes is always a tall task, but the Buccaneers’ defensive unit looks ready for the challenge. The Chiefs will also have a mountain to climb against Tampa’s run D, so I’m going with the under on the totals. The Buccaneers offense hasn’t impressed thus far and struggles with injuries which is another reason to take the under.  

Tampa Bay’s first three games in 2022 have gone under the total. On the flip side, the over is 8-3 in the Chiefs’ last 11 contests overall and 5-1 in their previous six road tilts. You never know with Patrick Mahomes, but moving the chains frequently against this Tampa Bay team might be a tall order.

Prediction: Go under 45.5 points (-110)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.