Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#259 Los Angeles Chargers vs.
#260 Houston Texans
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 1:00pm EDT
NRG Stadium, Houston
Written by Adam Rauzino

The Los Angeles Chargers (1-2, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) take on the Houston Texans (0-2-1, 2-0-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) in an AFC battle on Sunday afternoon. The Chargers were dealt a surprising home loss by the Jaguars in their previous action. The Texans remain winless after a narrow road loss to the Bears last week. The Texans collected a 41-29 home win against the Chargers last season.

Chargers Fall to Jags, Injuries Mount

The Los Angeles Chargers are in need of a win. It’s only week four however they play in a tough decision and can’t afford a third straight loss. LA won the season opener against the Raiders and has since lost to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score and was tabbed 6.5 point favorites in an ugly 38-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week. The Chargers have covered in two of their three games.

Justin Herbert is posting big numbers. The 24-year-old QB had 334 yards against the Chiefs followed by 297 last week. He was playing with a rib injury and only connected on 55% of his passes in the loss to the Jags. Herbert now has 910 passing yards accompanied by a 7:2 TD to INT ratio.

Austin Ekeler has yet to find a groove. The 27-year-old had 900 rushing yards in 2021 and has only managed to collect 80 yards on an average of only 2.5 yards per carry. The running game will need to improve quickly as they rank last in yards per game. Mike Williams is one of the better WRs in the NFL but only had one catch last week. The 27-year-old WR has 138 receiving yards on the season. Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury. The LA offense was playing through injuries last week, but the 10-point output was a big surprise.

The Chargers' defense was exploited last week. They had no answer for Trevor Lawrence or the Jaguars’ running game. They had zero sacks and gave up 413 total yards. The pass defense has been an issue, standing 20th while the rush defense is 12th. Los Angeles is scoring an average of 19.3 points, landing them 17th overall. The defense is conceding an average of 28 points, pegging them 29th.

Texans Seek First Win

The rebuilding Houston Texans are searching for their first win of the season. They played in a rare 20-20 decision against the Colts in week one and have been competitive in the two defeats. They lost by seven points to the Broncos and were three-point dogs in a narrow 23-20 road loss in Chicago last week. The Texans have covered in two of their three clashes on the season.

Davis Mills has not fared well in his last two games. The 23-year-old QB had 240 passing yards in week one against the Colts but only posted 177 yards against the Broncos and tossed two picks in Chicago. He has 662 passing yards accompanied by a 3:2 TD to INT ratio. 

Dameon Pierce has been a bright spot in three performances. The 22-year-old rookie RB accrued 80 rushing yards last week and now has 182 rushing yards on 4 yards per carry. Brandin Cooks has been kept in check after a big game in week one. He brought in 22 yards last week and leads the team with 158 receiving yards. The Houston offense has scored 20 or fewer points in all three games. 

The Texans' defense has been containing their foes so far. While the unit squandered 363 total yards against the Bears, they limited Justin Fields to only 106 passing yards. The pass defense has been decent, ranking 11th while the rush defense has been exposed, pegging them last. Houston is scoring an average of 16.3 points, pegging them 26th overall. The defense is allowing an average of 19.6 points, positioning them 15th in the NFL.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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The Los Angeles Chargers have not looked good and the injuries have been piling up on both sides of the ball.  They won their season opener and have since lost two in a row including a disastrous 38-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week. The Texans have been competitive. They played in a 20-20 decision to the Colts in the opener and have only lost by seven and three points respectively against the Broncos and Bears, with those games occurring on the road.

Furthermore, the Chargers will produce in the air propelled by Justin Herbert but the running game has been putrid. They rank last in rushing yards and Ekeler is only averaging 2.5 yards per rush. The Chargers will rely on the passing game however the Texans have been effective in the air, holding foes to 207.7 passing yards per game, good for 11th in the NFL. The Chargers are playing without Joey Bosa while Keenan Allen is questionable.

Prediction: Houston Texans +5.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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I am opting for the over considering this low total which is one of the lowest on the board this week. The Chargers scored 24 points in their first two games and should be much better this week after scoring 10 against the Jaguars. Herbert was playing through a rib injury last week and should be more accurate after converting on 55% of his passes against the Jags. 

In addition, the Texans' offense has been decent. They accumulated 329 total yards in Chicago and Davis Mills has reached 240 passing yards in two of his three performances. This is key as the Chargers are marked 20th in pass defense. Mills recorded 254 passing yards against the Chargers last season. The over is also 5-1 in the Chargers' last six games against a team with a losing record.

Prediction: Over 44.5
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Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis.