Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#253 Tennessee Titans vs.
#254 Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 1:00pm EDT
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Written by Dave Kovaleski

The Indianapolis Colts look to build on last Sunday's huge win over the Chiefs when they host their AFC North division rivals, the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. The Colts are 1-1-1 on the season while the Titans are 1-2. The Titans have won 6 of the last 10 head to head matchups over the Colts including a 34-31 overtime win last season. The Colts are favored by 3.5 points.

Titans get first win

The Tennessee Titans got in the win column last weekend for the first time, as they scored a 24-22 win over the Raiders as a two-point underdog. The Titans led 24-10 at halftime and almost let it slip away in the second half, but held on for a 24-22 win. The Titans were outgained by the Raiders and had 5 fewer first downs, but they were more efficient on third-down conversions, converting 5 of 10. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill was perfectly average, going 19 for 27 for 264 yards and a touchdown with 1 interception.

The Titans' workhorse back Derrick Henry had his best game this season with 85 yards rushing and a touchdown on 4.2 yards per carry. He also caught five passes for 58 yards. One thing that has come to light is the offense misses AJ Brown on the outside. The receiving corps are very thin as the leading target is veteran Robert Woods, who had 4 catches for 85 yards in their win over the Raiders. He has nine catches for 137 yards and no TDs in three games.

The defense has been pretty soft too, as the Titans give up 28 points per game, which is 29th in the NFL. The defense has been really hurt by injuries with several linebackers out. They rank 29th against the run.

Colts shock the Chiefs

The Colts shocked the NFL last week, beating the mighty Chiefs 20-17 as a 4.5-point underdog. The win defied all logic as the Colts have been terrible this year, with a tie to Houston in the opener followed by an embarrassing 24-0 loss to the Jaguars in week two. But it all came together last Sunday as the Colts shocked the unbeaten Chiefs. And they won in most dramatic fashion as Matt Ryan hit Jelani Woods on a 12-yard touchdown strike with 29 seconds left in the game to give the Colts the 20-17 win. Ryan was pretty solid in this game going 27 for 37 for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions.

The Colts did what they do well -- they controlled the clock, holding the ball for 33 and a half minutes to 26 and a half for the Chiefs. Jonathan Taylor, like his counterpart Derrick Henry, has not gotten on track yet this season, but he had a decent game, rushing for 71 yards, but only on 3.4 yards per carry. He also caught three passes. Michael Pittman was the top receiver with 8 catches for 72 yards while Woods only had 2 catches on the day, but both were for touchdowns. While the offense only generates 13 points per game, the worst in the league, the defense has been good. They give up 20 points per game, which is 15th in the NFL. But they are 11th in total yards against and third best against the run.

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Both of these teams finally got in the win column last weekend, which was a relief to their respective fan bases, because both have underperformed, as more is expected of them. Both teams are flawed, but I think the Titans have deeper problems. Losing AJ Brown was a huge blow and they have very little talent at the receiver position, which hurts even more with an aging and declining quarterback. The defense has also been weak, especially against the run. I like the Colts here because they are home and they are excellent against the run, which takes away the Titans' major strength. Take the Colts here giving up the points.

Prediction: Indianapolis -3.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The total is set low here at 43 -- and for good reason. These are not good offensive teams right now. I think the total is even too high here as we have a Colts team averaging just 13 points per game, last in the NFL, and the Titans are bottom third in points. But in this game, the Titans' strength, the run game, won't be the advantage it usually is against an excellent Colts run defense. The Colts held the Chiefs to 17 points last week and I don't see the struggling Titans hitting that number. The Colts like to control the clock with their run game and ball control, so that bodes well for the under too. Take the under here.

Prediction: Under 43
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Written By Dave Kovaleski , "Dave Kovaleski"

Dave has covered every major sport with passion and expertise for national sports publications and we are very happy to have him as a part of our team here at Winners & Whiners and StaSalt. In addition to being a sportswriter and sports bettor, Dave has also worked in the financial industry and brings a critical eye for numbers to his analysis of games. Dave thoroughly researches the statistics to spot the trends and break down the matchups to successfully find the winners in the NFL, NBA, MLB, college hoops, and other sports. You will not be disappointed in following Dave on a daily basis.