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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Rams vs. Falcons Prediction

Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 1:00pm EDT
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Friday, October 18, 2019 at 8:53pm EDT

Introduction

A pair of NFC teams in desperate need of a win take the field down in Hotlanta in week 7 action. The Los Angeles Rams make the cross-country trek to face the scuffling Atlanta Falcons Sunday afternoon. Los Angeles was dropped 20-7 at home by San Francisco in a NFC West matchup last Sunday. Atlanta ended up a 34-33 loser on the road against Arizona in their previous game last Sunday. The Rams lead the all-time regular season series 47-28-2 but the Falcons won the last four regular season meetings, including a 42-14 romp on the road in the last matchup on December 11, 2016.

Los Angeles Rams Review

Los Angeles started the season strong, reeling off three straight victories where they outscored the opposition 77-49. The Rams knocked off Carolina on the road (30-27), then downed the Saints at home (27-9) in the game where Drew Brees suffered a thumb injury and then took down the Browns 20-13 on the road on Sunday Night Football. Since that point, things have unraveled as Los Angeles has dropped three straight games. The Rams were beaten 55-40 by Tampa Bay on the road in a game where Jared Goff threw for more than 500 yards in the contest. Los Angeles then fell 30-29 on the road at Seattle in week five when Greg Zuerlein missed a field goal in the closing seconds. That set up a showdown with 4-0 San Francisco last week and things clearly didn’t go the Rams’ way.

The Rams were absolutely crushed in their contest against the 49ers as their passing game, which had been so prolific early on in the season, was completely shut down. Los Angeles went down the field, covering 56 yards on their opening drive, to score a touchdown on an eight-yard Robert Woods run, but things went south from there. The Rams were outgained 331-157 in total offense, gave up 22 first downs while recording only 10 and were dominated 38:52 to 21:08 in time of possession. Los Angeles did force two takeaways while committing only one turnover but went zero for nine on third down in addition to zero of four on fourth down in the contest.

Atlanta Falcons Review

Atlanta sputtered in dropping their fourth straight game to drop to 1-5 on the season. The heat is likely being turned up on coach Dan Quinn, whose team continues to struggle in key facets of the game. Atlanta started the season with a 28-12 beating on the road at the hands of Minnesota where they were never really in the game. The Falcons followed that up with a 24-20 home win over Philadelphia in week two but things have spiraled downward from there. Atlanta was beaten 27-24 on the road by the Colts in week 3, was shut down at home by Tennessee (24-10) and then was blown out by Houston (53-32) on the road in week five. The Falcons had a prime chance to get back in the win column by facing the Cardinals but it turned out not to be their day.

The Falcons showed some grit and character by rallying back from a 27-10 hole in the early stages of the third quarter but inevitably fell short against the Cardinals. Atlanta rallied to tie the game at 27 in the fourth quarter, gave up the go-ahead score with 5:12 to play and drove the field to score on a Matt Ryan to Devonta Freeman touchdown pass with 1:53 remaining to get within one. In what is seemingly par for the course for the Falcons this season, Matt Bryant missed the tying extra point that could have forced overtime. Atlanta’s defense was unable to make a stop on the ensuing possession and the Cardinals ran out the clock. The Falcons held a 444-442 edge in total offense, won the first down battle 31-24 and won the time of possession 32:47 to 27:13 in the contest. There were no turnovers in the game.

The Running Game

Los Angeles Rams Running Offense
vs. Atlanta Falcons Running Defense

Los Angeles Rams Running Offense

Los Angeles was highly effective on the ground last season but things haven't been as successful in the opening six weeks of the season in 2019. The Rams saw their rushing attempt total drop week to week in the first four games and, as a result, their rushing totals have dropped as well. After rushing 32 times for 166 yards in the opener against the Panthers, Los Angeles trickled down to 30 carries for 115 yards against New Orleans before and 24 carries for 90 yards against Cleveland. Against Tampa Bay, the run game was non-existent as they ran the ball just 11 times for 28 yards. The Rams managed to get the ground game going a bit more effectively in week five, picking up 82 yards on 18 carries in week five against the Seahawks. Last week against San Francisco, the Rams were decent even without Gurley II as they ran the ball 22 times for 109 yards and a score: that was the first rushing TD San Francisco had allowed this season.

Todd Gurley II leads the Rams on the ground with 64 carries for 270 yards and five scores on the season. He missed last week against the 49ers with a quad injury and hopes to return this week. Malcolm Brown contributes 37 carries for 154 yards and two touchdowns. The drop-off after that is vast: receiver Robert Woods is next in line with seven carries for 59 yards plus a score. Brandin Cooks adds five carries for 51 yards while Darrell Henderson Jr. contributes seven carries for 39 yards and Jared Goff has 13 yards and a score on the ground this season. Los Angeles has moved the chains 36 times via the ground this season and has five runs of at least 20 yards: Gurley II has two of them while Woods, Henderson Jr. and Cooks have the others.

Atlanta Falcons Run Defense

Atlanta had all kinds of problems containing the ground game of the Vikings in the opener. The Falcons were punched in the mouth early and when they didn’t respond to it, Minnesota simply continued to batter them into submission. That has been the result more often than not this season: Atlanta has allowed more than 100 yards four times this season, including each of the last three weeks. The Falcons gave up a season-worst 172 yards in the opener to Minnesota while allowing triple digits to Tennessee (138 in week 4), Houston (166 in week 5) and Arizona (102 in week six): their best games came in weeks two (49 yards against Philadelphia) and three (79 yards against Indianapolis) this season. Whether Atlanta can step up remains to be seen.

De’Vondre Campbell leads the team on the season with 57 tackles (39 solo) plus two forced fumbles on the season. Deion Jones (45 tackles), Ricardo Allen (35 tackles), Grady Jarrett (32 tackles, two forced fumbles) and Kemal Ishmael (28 tackles) are among the team’s leaders in tackles. Jarrett leads Atlanta with eight tackles for loss while Jones has five and Takkarist McKinley (14 tackles) contributes 4.5 on the season. As a team, the Falcons have recorded 31 tackles for loss as a team while forcing nine fumbles and recovering two this season.

Stats

LAR

  • 27th in run play percentage (34.68 percent)
  • 22nd in rushing attempts per game (22.8)
  • 22nd in rushing yards per game (98.3)
  • 14th in yards per carry (4.3)
  • Tied for 2nd in rushing TD (nine)
  • 25th in longest rush (27 yards)

ATL

  • 29th in percentage of run plays against (47.75 percent)
  • 26th in run plays per game against (30)
  • 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (117.7)
  • 9th in opposing yards per carry (3.9)
  • Tied for 20th in rushing TD allowed (seven)
  • Tied for 8th in longest rush allowed (30 yards)

Who has the Edge?

This is a clash of two teams with different problems. Los Angeles hasn't run the ball as much as you would expect given the fact that they gave Gurley II a hefty extension last season. Atlanta has been unable to stop the run with any consistency this season, which is just part of a larger set of issues defensively. The Rams had some success when they ran the ball against a tough San Francisco defense. Factor in how dismal Atlanta has been on the defensive side of the ball and that the Rams are optimistic about Gurley II returning to the lineup this week, Los Angeles gets the edge here.

Advantage: Los Angeles Rams

Atlanta Falcons Running Offense
vs. Los Angeles Rams Running Defense

Atlanta Falcons Running Offense

Atlanta’s run game has not really panned out the way that they would have hoped this season. The Falcons have been stymied, be it due to a lack of commitment to the ground game when the score is competitive or because large deficits have taken them out of their projected game plan. The end result has been disappointment: Atlanta has averaged 3.4 yards per carry or less in three of their games and has been limited to less than 60 yards three times this year. The Falcons finally cracked the century mark on the ground in their week six game against the Cardinals as they ran 25 times for 103 yards.

Devonta Freeman is the team’s leading rusher with 77 carries for 275 yards on the season. Ito Smith contributes 21 carries for 99 yards plus a score while Matt Ryan chips in 62 yards and a score on the ground this season. As a team, the Falcons have four run plays that have covered at least 20 yards: Freeman has three of them while Smith has the other. Atlanta has moved the chains 31 times via the ground this season.

Los Angeles Rams Run Defense

Los Angeles has been fairly effective at stopping the run game of the opposition so far this season. The Rams have faced some talented backs as they've seen Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb already this season. Los Angeles gave up 127 yards and a 5.5 yard per carry average, not to mention three scores, on the ground against the Panthers in the opener. In weeks two through four, the Rams didn’t allow more than 95 yards in a game via the ground and held two of those three teams to under three yards per carry. Against Seattle in week five, the Rams allowed 43 carries for 167 yards in the loss. The Rams kept the 49ers in check last week as they limited San Francisco to 41 carries for just 99 yards in the loss.

Linebacker Cory Littleton leads the team with 55 tackles (31 solo) to go with a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries on the year. Safeties John Johnson III (51 tackles), Eric Weddle (51 tackles) and Taylor Rapp (26 tackles) along with linebacker Troy Reeder (28 tackles) are next in line in that category. Clay Matthews (19 tackles, two forced fumbles) and Aaron Donald (20 tackles, forced fumble) each have nine tackles for loss while Dante Fowler Jr. (21 tackles) has 4.5 on the year. The Rams have totaled 36 tackles for loss, forced six fumbles and recovered four so far this season.

Stats

ATL

  • 31st in run play percentage (29.9 percent)
  • 30th in rushing attempts per game (19.3)
  • 29th in rushing yards per game (73.5)
  • 23rd in yards per carry (3.8)
  • Tied for 24th in rushing TD (two)
  • 24th in longest rush (28 yards)

LAR

  • 26th in percentage of run plays against (45.25 percent)
  • 27th in run plays per game against (30.2)
  • 16th in rushing yards allowed per game (105.5)
  • 4th in opposing yards per carry (3.5)
  • Tied for 14th in rushing TD allowed (five)
  • 5th in longest rush allowed (24 yards)

Who has the Edge?

Atlanta has all but abandoned the run game for the most part this season as they've thrown early, often and consistently. The Falcons have basically become the east coast version of the Rams: they have a talented running back but insist on throwing the ball at a ridiculously high rate. Los Angeles has seen a lot of the run this season but they've been extremely stout as they don't give up big plays while limiting the opposition's success on a per carry basis. Until Atlanta shows a commitment to the run game, you have to think that they're just going to abandon it at the first sign of struggle.

Advantage: Los Angeles Rams

The Passing Game

Los Angeles Rams Passing Offense
vs. Atlanta Falcons Passing Defense

Los Angeles Rams Passing Offense

While the run game has gone south for the Rams since the opener, the passing game has trended upwards. Of course, a chunk of the yardage that was put up last week against Tampa Bay was empty yardage with little impact on the end result of the contest. Los Angeles threw for 186 yards in the opener before things started to improve. The Rams improved to 283 yards against the Saints, 268 yards against the Browns and then went for 517 yards against the Buccaneers. Of course, you're hoping that your stat line isn't going to show 68 pass attempts like Los Angeles had in week four. Los Angeles still rode the passing game in week 5 against the Seahawks as they threw for 395 yards in the one-point loss while throwing 49 passes. Against San Francisco, the Rams did absolutely nothing as they finished with a meager 78 yards passing: that number dropped to 48 net passing yards after sacks were factored in.

Jared Goff has completed 153 of 246 passes for 1,727 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year. He has been sacked 12 times, losing 92 yards in the process. Cooper Kupp leads the team with 45 receptions for 522 yards and four scores on the year. Robert Woods (31 receptions, 355 yards) and Brandin Cooks (23 catches, 343 yards, TD) gives the Rams a trio of talented receivers. Tight ends Gerald Everett (20 grabs, 232 yards, TD) and Tyler Higbee (16 catches, 154 yards, TD) along with Gurley II (14 catches, 68 yards) are other targets. The Rams have 22 pass plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season: Kupp leads the way with nine such plays while Cooks has five and Everett has four.

Atlanta Falcons Passing Defense

Atlanta started the season with their best performance against the pass but that comes with an asterisk as the Vikings threw the ball only 10 times. In the last five weeks, the Falcons have given up three 300-yard games, including a 426-yard performance by Deshaun Watson in week five, while not giving up fewer than 227 yards through the air in that span. The Falcons have had their struggles getting after the quarterback: they had three sacks against the Eagles but just two sacks in their other five games. Atlanta hasn’t recorded a sack in the last three weeks: can the pass rush get home here?

Jarrett leads the team in sacks as he has two on the year. Vic Beasley Jr (12 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, pass defense) has 1.5 sacks while Adrian Clayborn (nine tackles, tackle for loss, two forced fumbles) has one. McKinley recorded the other half a sack for the team this season. Isaiah Oliver (28 tackles, forced fumble) and Desmond Trufant (five tackles, half-tackle for loss) each have four pass defenses this season. Trufant leads the team with two interceptions: no one else on the Falcons has one. As a team, Atlanta has recorded five sacks, 11 pass defenses and two interceptions on the season.

Stats

LAR

  • 6th in pass play percentage (65.32 percent)
  • 22nd in completion percentage (62.2)
  • 6th in passing yards per game (272.5)
  • Tied for 19th in TD passes (seven)
  • Tied for 25th in INT thrown (seven)
  • 18th in net yards per pass attempt (6.6)
  • Tied for 12th in longest pass play (66 yards)
  • 27th in passer rating (80.8)

ATL

  • 4th in pass play percentage against (52.25 percent)
  • 27th in net passing yards per game allowed (271.2)
  • 30th in completion percentage allowed (71.4)
  • 31st in TD passes allowed (15)
  • Tied for 26th in INT (two)
  • Tied for 31st in sacks (five)
  • 30th in passer rating allowed (119.2)
  • 30th in net yards per pass attempt (8.5)

Who has the Edge?

Atlanta's pass defense has been a sieve this season as they've made every QB they've faced look like a Hall of Famer. The Falcons have been unable to get after the opposing quarterback and that leaves their secondary hung out to dry because there's simply too much time to try and cover effectively. Goff has had some big games already this season and the Rams have their talented trio of receivers. Los Angeles has plenty to prove after their dismantling last week against the 49ers. The Rams should get the upper hand here as Kupp, Woods and Cooks run free.

Advantage: Los Angeles Rams

Atlanta Falcons Passing Offense
vs. Los Angeles Rams Passing Defense

Atlanta Falcons Passing Offense

Atlanta has had to go to the air a lot more than they would have liked at this point in time given the fact that they keep digging deficits to climb out of this season. The Falcons have gone over the 300-yard mark through the air in each of their six games this season and the production has been remarkably consistent. Atlanta has not thrown for fewer than 304 yards in a game or more than 397 so far this season. The problem is, there has been a fair share of sacks, hits and turnovers because of the defense knowing what’s coming.

Matt Ryan has completed 186 of 258 passes for 2,011 yards with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has been sacked 14 times, leading to 104 yards in losses in the process. Tight end Austin Hooper paces the team in receptions with 42 grabs for 480 yards and three scores on the year. Julio Jones has hauled in 34 passes for 467 yards plus four scores while Mohamed Sanu (32 receptions, 310 yards, TD) and Calvin Ridley (25 catches, 343 yards, four TD) are effective targets in the aerial game as well. Atlanta has 26 pass plays covering at least 20 yards through the air: Jones leads the team with eight while Ridley adds seven and Hooper five this season.

Los Angeles Rams Passing Defense

Los Angeles has had their struggles in making plays when the opposition goes to the air this season. The Rams, despite plenty of talent, especially in the secondary, where they have three former Pro Bowlers, have been gouged by opposing quarterbacks and receivers. The numbers aren't particularly galling but the inability to stop the opposition will catch up to them. Los Angeles allowed 239 yards through the air in the opener to Carolina, 203 to the Saints, which was held down by the loss of Drew Brees, and 195 to the Browns. The Rams' defense didn't show up against Tampa Bay as they allowed 385 yards through the air and four touchdowns. Los Angeles had their problems containing the Seahawks in week five as they allowed 268 yards through the air. Against San Francisco, the Rams were decent defensively, allowing 243 yards through the air.

This week, Los Angeles made some moves: Aqib Talib was placed on injured reserve while Marcus Peters was traded to Baltimore. In a separate trade, the Rams acquired Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars to try and fix their problems.

Matthews (19 tackles, two forced fumbles) leads the team with six sacks on the season. Donald has three sacks while Fowler Jr. has contributed two on the year. Littleton leads the team with seveb pass defenses while the now-departed Peters (14 tackles, fumble recovery) had four and Weddle has three. Johnson III and Peters (TD) each have two interceptions to share the team lead while Littleton has the other. As a team, the Rams have recorded 13 sacks, 27 pass defenses and five interceptions with one pick six on the year.

Stats

ATL

  • 2nd in pass play percentage (70.1 percent)
  • 3rd in completion percentage (72.1)
  • 2nd in net passing yards per game (317.8)
  • 1st in TD passes (15)
  • Tied for 25th in INT thrown (seven)
  • 8th in net yards per pass attempt (7.4)
  • Tied for 21st in longest pass play (54 yards)
  • 6th in passer rating (102.7)

LAR

  • 7th in pass play percentage faced (54.75 percent)
  • 14th in passing yards per game allowed (241.3)
  • 14th in completion percentage allowed (64.1)
  • 18th in TD passes allowed (nine)
  • Tied for 13th in INT (five)
  • Tied for 18th in sacks (13)
  • 17th in passer rating allowed (90.9)
  • 19th in net yards per pass attempt (seven)

Who has the Edge?

The Rams are dealing with injuries: their best pass rusher, Matthews, is out with a broken jaw. Los Angeles' secondary is in shambles as the team lost Talib and dealt Peters, which means you'll see two new corners in the mix this week. The Rams are hoping to have Ramsey in the mix this week but it could be tough for him to pick up the schemes that quickly. Atlanta loves to throw the ball and with Ryan throwing to Jones, Ridley, Sanu and Hooper, there are simply too many options for the Rams to deal with on that side of the ball.

Advantage: Atlanta Falcons

Intangibles

Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles enter week 7 10th in the league in scoring offense as they put up 25.5 points per game this season. The Rams are 12th in the league in total offense with 370.8 yards per contest and stand 15th in yards per play with an average of 5.6 yards a snap. Los Angeles is 24th in scoring defense as they allow 25.7 points per game. On the season, the team is 12th in total defense by allowing 346.8 yards per game and 9th in yards per play allowed as they give up 5.2 yards per play on average. Los Angeles is tied for 23rd in the league in giveaway/takeaway with a -3 margin this season.

The Rams are a solid 9th in the league in scoring touchdowns in the red zone as they cash in 62.5 percent of their chances. Defensively, Los Angeles is below average as they are 21st in red zone defense by allowing 60.87 percent of drives to reach the red zone to end in touchdowns. The Rams are slightly below average in third down conversions, ranking 18th by converting 36 percent of their third-down situations. Los Angeles’s defense is struggling, ranking 20th in those situations as they hold the opposition to a 42.5 percent success on their third downs. The Rams are 27th in the league in time of possession by holding the ball 45.9 percent of the time this season.

Greg Zuerlein has hit all 15 extra-point tries and 12 of 15 field goal attempts with a long of 58 this season. Johnny Hekker is an upper-echelon punter: he averages 49.2 yards per kick (41.2 net) on his 18 punts this season. He has dropped four punts inside the 20 while not recording a touchback. He did have one punt blocked earlier this season. JoJo Natson has averaged 24 yards on four kick returns and has averaged 9.4 yards on nine punt returns with a long of 32 on the season.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta is 16th in the league in scoring offense as they average 22.5 points per game on the season. The Falcons currently are 7th in the league in total offense with 391.3 yards per game and stand 6th in yards per play by picking up 6.1 yards per snap. Atlanta is a dismal 31st in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 31 points per contest. The Falcons are a lousy 26th in total defense as they allow 388.8 yards per game and are near the back of the pack, ranking 27th as they give up 6.2 yards per play. Atlanta is miserable in the takeaway/giveaway department, ranking tied for 27th as they are a -5 on the season.

The Falcons are a solid 6th in red zone success as they have cashed in 65 percent of their drives that got inside the opposition’s 20-yard line into touchdowns. Atlanta is struggling in their red zone defense: they are 29th as opposing teams have a 66.67 percent success rate as far as scoring touchdowns goes. Atlanta is 7th in the league in third down conversions as they have converted 47.83 percent of their opportunities this season. They have converted five of their eight fourth down situations on the year. The Falcons are abysmal in getting off the field as opposing teams have converted 56 percent of their third downs, which is dead last in the league. Atlanta is 17th in the league in time of possession as they hold the ball 49.56 percent of the time.

Matt Bryant is 13 of 14 on extra points and six of eight on field goal attempts with a long of 50 this season. Three different punters have booted for the Falcons this season: Matt Bosher averaged 41.9 yards (36.7-yard net) on nine kicks, dropping two inside the 20-yard line. Matt Wile has averaged 48.3 yards (44.7-yard net) on six punts with three inside the 20 while Kasey Redfern has averaged 43.3 yards (42.3-yard net) on three punts this season with one inside the 20. Bosher had a punt blocked in the season opener against the Vikings back in week 1. Kenjon Barner is the top option in the return game: he averages 22.6 yards on five kick returns with a long of 28 and 7.7 yards on 11 punt returns with a long of 18 this season.

Who has the Edge?

Atlanta has been solid on the offensive side of the ball this season. The Falcons' problem is that they can't stop anyone: they are near the bottom in several major statistical categories, including third-down percentage. You can't let a team convert 56 percent of their third downs and hope to have success. Los Angeles has been solid offensively and they have plenty of stars on both sides of the ball. The Rams have the edge in the kicking game and definitely in the punt game given the fact that the Falcons have had three punters. Throw in that McVay and Wade Phillips are a solid coaching duo, you have to think the Rams have the upper hand here.

Advantage: Los Angeles Rams

Final Outlook

Atlanta has been dismal on the defensive side of the ball as they've been torched repeatedly this season. The Falcons haven't held an opponent under 20 points in a game this season and they've given up 87 points in their last two contests. A prolific offense can only carry you so far if the defense can't stop anyone, which is what the Falcons are facing. Los Angeles has dropped three straight games and is coming off a complete shutdown at the hands of the 49ers. The Rams have a chip on their shoulder and they are chomping at the bit to snap their three-game slide. With the Falcons going nowhere, you have to think that Los Angeles gets the upper hand here given the poor Atlanta defense.

The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 7, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC opponents and 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home. Atlanta has gone 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in October, 0-5 in their last five in week seven and 0-4 in their last four overall. Give the points as the Rams take advantage of the weak Atlanta defense.

Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements

Los Angeles did get some good news on the injury report this week as the team removed Gurley II and the recently acquired Ramsey from the injury report. That means both those guys will take the field in this one. Things are pretty solid for the Rams injury-wise: Matthews is still out with his broken jaw while Malcolm Brown is doubtful with an ankle injury. Should he not go, Darrell Henderson Jr. will be the second back in the system. With Joe Noteboom out for the year after last week's knee injury, David Edwards or Jamil Demby has to step up and make plays.

Atlanta has only one injury to report in this game but it's a big one. Desmond Trufant, who is the only player to have an interception on the season, is out with a toe injury. That's a big blow for the Falcons, who again have to rely on Kendall Sheffield, Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Damontee Kazee. It also makes for a rough day for the Atlanta secondary in general as there's no one to shut down Kupp, Woods or Cooks in the passing game.

The weather looks like it is expected to be good for late October in Hotlanta. Game-time temperatures are projected to be in the low-70s with clear skies. Winds are expected to come from the west between five and 10 miles per hour. There is no precipitation expected to fall during this contest, making for optimal weather conditions for tailgaters. For the teams themselves, the weather is a non-factor as Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a dome: expect perfect conditions.

When the initial lines opened for this contest, Los Angeles was a four-point favorite with the over/under set at 52.5 points. As of Friday night, the line has shifted slightly to the Rams being a three-point favorite in the contest. The over/under has ticked upward slightly as it has moved to 55 points in this contest. Currently, the moneyline shows Los Angeles as a -145 to -155 favorite while the Falcons can be found as a +125 to +135 underdog depending on the sportsbook. As of this writing, 77 percent of the bets are backing the Rams -3 points. When it comes to the moneyline, a solid majority, 62 percent of the wagers, are backing the Chiefs as the visiting team. Meanwhile, 68 percent of bets are projecting this one to go over the total.

The loss of Trufant is a massive blow to an Atlanta defense that is reeling already against the pass. Los Angeles is looking to prove that last week was an aberration and with the Falcons' missing their secondary leader, there's going to be a lot of free space for the Rams' receivers. This one goes to the visitors, turning the heat up on Dan Quinn.

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams -3

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

Additional Insiders' Best Bets

Full-game Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

We know that both teams are capable of putting hefty point totals on the board. Atlanta has put up 65 points in their last two games as their offense has been clicking. Los Angeles has hung at least 27 points in four of their six games this season. Last week was the nadir of the Rams' offensive production but they get a real bounceback chance here against the Falcons' miserable defense. Atlanta looks to take advantage of the jumbled Los Angeles defense: can they do enough to earn the victory and snap their four-game slide?

The over is 5-1 in the Rams' last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game, 5-1 in their last six after an ATS loss and 6-2 in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Atlanta has seen the over go 5-1 in their last six in October, 4-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 9-3 in their last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The teams have gone over the total in each of their last four meetings in Atlanta: given the way both teams have piled up points and the soft defenses on both sides, this one ends up over the number.

Prediction: Over 54.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.