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Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts,
10-21-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#461 Buffalo
Bills 44
#462 Indianapolis
Colts -7

Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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National Football League action on Sunday afternoon and we will see the AFC East square off with the AFC South as the Buffalo Bills invade Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana to rumble with the Indianapolis Colts. the Bills won this game by a score of 13-7 at home last year.

The Bills enter this game off a hard-fought 20-13 loss to the Texans on the road, while the Colts check in off a wild 42-34 loss to the Jets on the road.

Offense Continues To Struggle For The Bills

The Buffalo Bills let Tyrod Taylor go in the offseason as he just was not what they were hoping for in leading this offense. Well, it has not been much better for them, especially of late. The Bills come in off a 20-13 loss to the Texans on the road and they did so on just 229 yards of total offense. Buffalo has now averaged just 204.8 ypg and 10.8 ppg over their last three games. they have also averaged just 3.7 yards per play over that stretch. Yikes.

The Bills took Josh Allen with their first pick in the draft and he has struggled so far, throwing for just 832 yards with two TDs and five INTs on the year. His QBR of 61.8 is 33rd in the league and remember that there are just 32 teams in the league. Allen was injured in the loss to Houston and will not play in this one. Nate Peterman was supposed to get the nod and he has thrown for just 85 yards with one TD and four INTs in two games played so far. However, the Bills are now turning to Derek Anderson, who they hope will have a much better showing against the 26th ranked pass defense in the league.

The defense for the Bills has not been an issue at all and they did allow Houston just 216 yards of total offense. If the Bills had even a decent offense then they could be in play for a playoff spot this year. Buffalo comes in ranked 3rd in the league in total yards allowed, 6th against the pass, 8th against the run and 12th in points allowed, giving up 23.0 ppg. On offense, the Bills are 31st in total offense, 32nd in passing, 20th in rushing and 32nd in scoring, putting up just 12.7 ppg.

Colts Fall In Wild On With The Jets

The New York Jets do not get into many shootouts, but they were in one this past weekend with the Indianapolis Colts. The Jets won that game by a score of 42-34 and the Colts have now lost their last four games in a row while posting a 1-5 record overall. This is not the start that they were expecting, especially with Andrew Luck back on the field. Now they have a shot at getting back into the win column against perhaps the worst team in the league.

Back to Andrew Luck, who is back with the team after missing all of last year. He hasn’t been horrible in his return as he has thrown for 1792 yards with 16 TDs, but he also has eight INTs. Still, it is not his fault that they are 1-5, but it may have been his fault that they lost to the Jets. He did throw for 301 yards and four TDs but also completed just 53.5% of his passes and threw three INTs. It was his worst game of the year and it will not get any easier as the Colts are facing one of the best pass defenses in the league.

The defense has been an issue for the Colts in the early going and they allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 280 yards on 24/30 passing with two TDs and an INT. The Colts are now 26th in the league against the pass, giving up 280 yards per game. They will not be taking on a good passing offense in this one, so their pass defense should improve. Indy is 17th in total offense, 10th in passing, 30th in rushing and 13th in scoring at 25.3 ppg.  On the other side of the ball, they are 23rd in total yards allowed, 16th against the run and 30th in points allowed, giving up 30 ppg.

Updated on Oct 21 at 2:10am EDT

Update prepared by our editoral staff

Public Money / Line Movements

The line has stayed steady all week with the Colts listed as 7 point favorites. That is despite the fact that 69% of the money is on the Colts. Looks like the sharps are leaning on the bills. They must have real faith in that defense.

Injury / Weather Report

Retractable Roof— Weather will not be an issue.

Buffalo’s Injury Report:

QB Josh Allen is out for this one. Nate Peterman will get the start. RB Marcus Murphy (213 yards rushing) is questionable. You have to wonder if the sharps feel that Peterman will do a better job than Allen.

Indianapolis’ Injury Report:

WR Ryan Grant (26 catches, 270 yards) is out as is TE Jack Doyle (9 catches, 80 yards) and WR Marcus Johnson (6 catches, 102 yards). Those injuries may be influencing the sharps as well.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

The Colts have had a rough start to their year, but they have a real shot at posting an easy victory this week. The Bills are a horrible offensive team this year and are even worse with Peterman or Anderson at QB. Andrew Luck is having a solid season so far and while the Bills are 6th in the league against the pass, he should have a good showing, especially coming off his worst game of the year. Buffalo just won’t come up with enough offense to keep this one close. Take the Colts and the clincher is the fact that the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS the last nine games in this series.

Prediction: Indianapolis -7.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

This pick comes down to the fact that the Bills just won’t score enough for the game to go over the total. Derek Anderson is worse than Josh Allen and the Bills have had the worst passing offense in the league with Allen at QB. The Bills will have to run the ball a lot and that will chew up the clock. Indy will get their points, but the Bills will not and that will keep this game from going over the total. The Under is 6-1 the last seven games in this series and that seals the deal for me.

Prediction: Under 43.5

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

The Bills have one of the worst offenses in the league, but their defense has not been that bad. Because of that reason, I can’t see either team putting up any offense in the first 6.5 minutes of this game.

Prediction: No Score In The First 6.5 Minutes (-120)

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

The Colts are not off to a good start, but this is a team that they can and will beat handily. The Bills have been the 2nd worst team in the league in the early going and they just won’t have enough offense to keep this one close, especially in the first half. Look for the Colts to come out strong in this one.

Prediction: Indianapolis -4.5

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

The Colts will get their points off the Bills in this one, but Buffalo will have a tough time score on the Colts. The Bullfalo offense has been bad so far and once they get down, they will be forced to pass, which is not good news as Josh Allene has not played well so far. I look for Indy to lead 14-3 at the break.

Prediction: Under 21.5

Half-Time Prop Prediction
Rating:

I stated above that I feel the Bills will score just three points in the first half and I will stick to that statement here. The Bills just don’t have a good offense and are slow starters as the Bills have averaged just 6.7 ppg in the first half this year. Look for that to continue in this one.

Prediction: Buffalo Team Total Under 8.5 (First Half)

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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