Sunday evening on the NFL gridiron and the AFC North will battle the AFC West as the Cincinnati Bengals duke it out with the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Bengals come in off a tough 28-21 loss to the Steelers at home, while the Chiefs are off their first loss of the year as after falling to the Patriots by a score of 43-40.
Bengals Lose To The Steelers… Again
The Cincinnati Bengals had a nice 4-1 start to their year, but they hadn’t played the Pittsburgh Steelers year. Last week they did, and the Bengals fell to them by a score of 28-21. It was the 7th time in a row that they lost to Pittsburgh (including the postseason). Cincinnati did take a 21-20 lead with just 1:18 left in the game, but that was too much time for Big Ben as he drove the Steelers down for the winning TD with only 10 seconds left. The Bengals can’t catch a break.
Cincinnati was outgained 481-275 in the game. The pass defense struggled as they allowed 369 yards through the air, didn’t pick off a pass or even record a sack. They will have to be far better than that against Patrick Mahomes and the high-scoring Chiefs. The Bengals are 28th in the league against the pass, giving up 282 ypg through the air. If they can’t slow down the passing game of the Chiefs, then the Bengals have no shot of winning this game.
“We watched the film. We’re going to make corrections and look forward to the game on Sunday against Kansas City.”
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 16, 2018
The Cincy offense did not have a good showing against the Steelers and that will have to change if they hope to keep pace with the Chiefs in this one. Andy Dalton completed 61.9% of his passes for 229 yards with two TDs and no INTs, which are not horrible numbers, but he will have to have a better showing in this one. Dalton has thrown for 1674 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs on the season. Cincy is just 17th in the league in passing and could use some help from a running game that ranks 25th in the league. The Bengals are 23rd in total offense and 6th in scoring at 29.0 ppg, while on defense, they are 29th in yards allowed and 23rd in points allowed.
Chiefs Suffer Their First Loss
The 2nd to Last of the Mohicans… I mean unbeatens has fallen as the Chiefs suffered their first loss of the year last week in New England. The Chiefs did trail that game by a score of 24-9 at the break but continued to fight before eventually falling by a score of 43-40. KC did grab a 33-30 lead halfway through the 4th quarter, but the Pats outscored them 13-7 the rest of the way. The Chiefs committed two turnovers, were outgained 500-446 and out-first-downed 31-18, but still were in it till the final gun.
We showed some fight last night and proved that we won’t get rattled. ✊
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 16, 2018
Patrick Mahomes continued his assault on opposing pass defense as he threw for 342 yards with four TDs, but he did throw two costly picks. Still, it has been a fantastic season for the 2nd year quarterback from Texas Tech as he has put up video game type numbers so far. Mahomes comes in having completed 63.7% of his passes for 1865 yards with 18 TDs and just four INTs. We do note that all four INTs have come in his last two games. He has a shot at a big game in this one as he will be facing the 28th ranked pass defense in the league.
The Chiefs have needed all the offense they can get as their defense has been downright horrible. They allowed 50o yards against the Patriots, including 327 through the air. KC has a shot at improving on their pass defense as the Bengals are just 17th in the league in passing. The Chiefs are 32nd in the league in total yards allowed, 31st against the pass, 27th against the run and 27th in points allowed at 28.7 ppg. On the other side of the ball, they are 5th in total offense, 7th in passing, 13th in rushing and 2nd in scoring, putting up 35.8 ppg.
- 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the AFC
- 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on grass
Kansas City is:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
- The Under is 23-6 in their last 29 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
Updated on Oct 21 at 9:05am EDT
Update prepared by our editoral staff
Public Money / Line Movements
The sharps seem to be all over the Bengals in this one as 75% of the tickets are on Kansas City and yet the line has stayed true at Kansas City -6 all week. Perhaps the sharps feel that the KC defense is catching up to them, plus they are off a grueling game against the Pats.
Injury / Weather Report
Clear and temps in the mid-50s during this contest. No weather issues.
Cincinnati’s Injury Report:
LB Nick Vigil (41 tackles) is out as is DB Darqueze Dennard (23 tackles). S Shawn Williams (16 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is listed as questionable. No other impact injuries for the Bengals.
Kansas City’s Injury Report:
WR De’Anthony Thomas (3 catches, 26 yards) is out along with DB Eric Berry and OL Mitch Morse. LB Justin Houston (five games played) is doubtful, while LB Anthony Hitchens (34 tackles) is questionable.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Bengals were off a horrible loss to the Steelers last week, and I expect them to bounce back with a solid effort in this one. The Chiefs are off their first loss of the year and will be looking to bounce back, but how much do they have in the tank after a very hard-fought loss to the Patriots. The Bengals have not defended the pass all that well, but the Chiefs haven’t been able to defend anything yet, and the Bengals will be able to keep the game close because of that defense. Cincy may not win the game outright, but they won’t lose by more than a field goal
Prediction: Cincinnati +6
Full-Game Total Pick
The Bengals have not been able to run the ball yet this year, but Joe Mixon is more than capable of having a solid game against a lousy run defense like the Chiefs have. They will need to run and control the clock, which will keep that KC offense on the sidelines. KC will air it out a lot, and the Bengals have struggled against the pass, but they are 11th in the league in yards per completion at 10.5. They will make KC work the ball down the field, which will also chew up the clock.
The Under is 14-6 in Cincinnati’s last 20 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 8-8 in Kansas City’s last 26 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Prediction: Under 58.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the league and they have averaged 35.8 ppg over, including 34 ppg at home. The Bengals have not been a great team on defense, especially on the road where they have allowed 30.0 ppg. This should be a shootout and both teams should be over 30 points in this one.
Prediction: Chiefs Team Total Over 32.5
Half-Time Side Pick
The Chiefs have no defense and the Bengals should be able to score on them in this one. Kansas City has allowed just 20.5 ppg at home, but they have also allowed 468 ypg in those games. The Bengals will finish their drives enough to hold a lead at the break.
Prediction: Cincinnati +3.5
Half-Time Total Bet
This game may see 28 points at the end of the first quarter and we should definitely see at least 30 points at the half. The Bengals have averaged 15.7 over the first 30 minutes this year, while the Chiefs have put up 18.6 ppg in the first half this year. This one should be rather easy.
Prediction: Over 28.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
Look for the Bengals to hang up at least 14 points by the end of the first half. The Chiefs have allowed 13.4 ppg and the Bengals have averaged 15.7 ppg in the first half this year and that seals the deal for me right there.
Prediction: Cincinnati Team Total Over 12.5 (First Half)