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New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens,
10-21-2018 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#469 New Orleans
Saints 51
#470 Baltimore
Ravens -3

Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 4:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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The Baltimore Ravens will collide with the New Orleans Saints in week seven action Sunday afternoon from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The Saints cruised to a 43-19 home win against the Redskins in their latest action two weeks ago, and the Ravens blanked the Titans 21-0 last week. This marks the first meeting between the Saints and Ravens since 2014 in a game the Ravens won 34-27.

First Place Saints Fresh After Enjoying Bye Week

The New Orleans Saints head into this one well rested after enjoying a bye week in week six. They have rebounded from their season-opening loss to the Buccaneers by winning four consecutive games which included a 43-19 home win against the Redskins in their latest action. Drew Brees was spectacular in that one, accumulating 363 passing yards with three TD’s, and he became the NFL’s all-time passing leader. The 39-year old QB is having another stellar season, amassing 1658 passing yards with a dazzling 11:0 TD to INT ratio. Saints’ leading rusher Alvin Kamara has slowed up in his last two games, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. Overall the second-year RB has played well, collecting 299 rushing yards and five TD’s. Michael Thomas has consistently produced this season. He tallied another 74 receiving yards against the Redskins, and he is up to 519 yards on the season. The Saints offense has steadily produced this season, and they rank third in the NFL with an average of 424 total yards per game.

The Saints defense has been sharp in two consecutive games. They limited the Redskins to only 283 total yards in their previous action. Their pass defense has struggled while the rush defense ranks #1 in the NFL. New Orleans is currently averaging an NFL leading 36 points. They are allowing an average of 28 points, pegging them down at 26th overall.

Ravens Defense Shines Again in Win Over Titans

The Baltimore Ravens rebounded from their week five loss to the Browns by recorded a convincing 21-0 road win over the Titans last week. Joe Flacco played well, amassing 238 passing yards with one TD against one INT. The 33-year old QB isn’t flashy, however, he continues to get the job done, accumulating 1788 passing yards with a 9:4 TD to INT ratio. Raven’s leading rusher Alex Collins led the way on the ground last week with 54 yards on 19 carries. The third-year running back is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry for a total of 271 rushing yards. Michael Crabtree, who had struggled with drops all season, had his best game of the season against the Titans, racking up 93 receiving yards, and he is second in team receiving behind John Brown with 343 yards. The Ravens’ offense doesn’t have many big playmakers, but they have consistently put up points with the exception of a 12-9 loss to the Browns.

The Ravens’ elite defense enters this one leading the NFL with 26 sacks on the season. They came through with another outstanding performance last week, making a whopping 11 sacks against Marcus Mariota and the Titans. Baltimore ranks in the top 3 in the NFL in most major defensive categories. They have won three out of their last four games, and they are tied for first in the AFC North. The Ravens are averaging 25.5 points, ranking them 12th in the NFL. They are limiting opponents to an NFL best 12.8 points per game.

Updated on Oct 21 at 7:40am EDT

Update prepared by our editoral staff

Public Money / Line Movements

53% of the tickets have been written on the Saints, and yet the Ravens have gone from 2.5 point favorites to 3 point favorites. The Sharps may feel that the Ravens have the defense to slow down the offensive juggernaut of the Saints.

Injury / Weather Report

Sunny and low 50’s at game time. No real weather issues for this one, but there could be some wind involved. That may affect the Saints a bit more than the Ravens.

New Orleans’ Injury Report:

WR Ted Ginn Jr (135 yards) is out… OG Larry Warford is questionable… No other impact injuries.

Baltimore’s Injury Report:

OG Alex Lewis is out. CB Marlon Humphrey (17 tackles) and  DB Anthony Levine (14 tackles, 1 INT) are both questionable.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

I am taking the Ravens in this matchup. The Ravens defense ranks #1 in the NFL and I am confident they can neutralize the Saints’ potent offense. The Ravens lead the NFL with 26 sacks on the season, and their elite secondary is holding opponents to an average of only 188 passing yards per game. I expect the Ravens to contain Drew Brees and the Saints passing offense. Also, the Saints running game ranks 21st in the NFL, and Baltimore’s rush defense ranks second in the NFL.

Furthermore, the Ravens offense is also thriving. Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing offense is averaging a stellar 294 passing yards per game, and they are up against a weak Saints pass defense that ranks down at 30th in the NFL. Baltimore should be able to cover this small spread on their home field.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens

Full-Game Total Pick

I am taking the over in this matchup. The Ravens offense should exploit the Saints weak secondary, and they are averaging a sizzling 35 points in their two home games. In addition, Baltimore is averaging a solid 393 total yards per game, and the over is 6-1 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Furthermore, while the Ravens should contain the Saints offense, Drew Brees is a future Hall of Fame quarterback, and the Saints lead the NFL with an average of 36 points per game. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams, and it should convert again.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

I anticipate plenty of offense from the Ravens in this one. The Ravens rank 11th in the NFL with an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game, plus they are averaging 4.5 touchdowns in their two home games this season. In addition the Saints are allowing an average of 3.4 touchdowns per game, placing them down at 29th in the NFL.

Prediction: Ravens Team Touchdown Total: Over 2.5

Half-Time Side Pick

The Ravens on this small halftime line is also a solid play. The Ravens first half defense has been outstanding recently, limiting their opponents to only 6.7 points in the first half over their last three games. In addition, the Ravens are averaging a solid 15.2 points in the first half this season.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -1.5

Half-Time Total Bet

The over on the halftime total is worth a look. The Ravens are much more productive in the first half where they are averaging nearly five more points compared to the second half. In addition, the Saints are conceding an average of 14.2 points in the first half, placing them down at 24th in the NFL.

Prediction: Over 24.5

Half-Time Prop Prediction

I am taking the Ravens on the first quarter three-way money line. The Ravens are very productive in the opening quarter, ranking second in the entire NFL with an average of 8 points, and they are averaging 12 points in the first quarter in their two home games. Furthermore, the Saints are conceding an average of 6.8 points in the first quarter. 

Prediction: Ravens First Quarter Money Line

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.


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