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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Patriots vs. Jets Prediction

Monday, October 21, 2019 at 8:15pm EDT
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Monday, October 21, 2019 at 3:08pm EDT

Introduction

Week 7 of the NFL season concludes with the New England Patriots putting their unbeaten record on the line Monday night while trying to complete a sweep of the New York Jets.

The teams met in Week 3, with the Patriots (6-0) cruising to a 30-14 victory. Tom Brady had two first-half touchdown passes, and the Jets (1-4) -- playing with third-string quarterback Luke Falk -- were limited to 105 total yards. Their touchdowns came via a fumble recovery in the end zone off a muffed punt and an interception return by Jamal Adams on Patriots backup quarterback Jarret Stidham.

New England is trying to sweep the series for the fourth straight season and has recorded its seven victories by an average of 19.3 points while outscoring New York 208-73. The Patriots have had to grind out their road wins over the Jets during their current run, winning those contests by a combined 25 points.

After allowing the Jets a back-door cover in Week 3 with those two late touchdowns and second-year quarterback Sam Darnold breathing life into New York's offense in its win over Dallas, oddsmakers have made the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots 9.5-point favorites in contrast to the first meeting closing with them 21-point favorites.

New England Patriots Review

The Patriots had the weekend off after dispatching the New York Giants 35-14 on Oct. 10. The game was more challenging than the final score indicates -- New England was able to move the ball but had trouble sustaining drives.

The defense and special teams made vital contributions, each scoring touchdowns as Chase Winovich returned a blocked punt six yards for a score and Kyle Van Noy ran a fumble back 22 yards midway through the fourth quarter to give New England a two-touchdown margin.

The Patriots also finished with four takeaways, intercepting rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. Brady finished with 334 yards but failed to throw a touchdown pass. The 42-year-old, though, compensated with a pair of touchdown sneaks while Sony Michel rushed for 86 yards.

New England has not opened a season 7-0 since winning its first 10 games in 2015.

New York Jets Review

The Jets season to date can be summed up in one sentence: What a difference Sam Darnold makes.

New York has split the two games he has started and arguably should have won the season-opener against Buffalo, which was more due to linebacker C.J. Mosley suffering a groin injury in the second half. In his return against the Cowboys, Darnold showed the three weeks missed due to mono did not affect his skills, with the biggest difference for the offense an ability to stretch the field vertically.

That helped Le'Veon Bell be more effective, though he still has yet to have a breakout game after finishing with 50 yards on 14 carries. The 382 total yards by the Jets nearly exceeded their total of the last three games combined (495) and easily set a season-best.

After a solid first half, New York's defense had all sorts of issues stopping Dallas in the second. The Jets allowed the Cowboys to convert 10 of 17 third down plays and essentially were saved by Adams' pressure up the middle on the two-point conversion pass that forced an incompletion by Prescott.

The Running Game

New England Patriots Running Offense
vs. New York Jets Running Defense

New England Patriots Running Offense

While the results are not there in terms of gaudy statistics, the Patriots do enough in the run game that it helps them control the tempo of the game. New England has cleared 100 yards in three of its last five games, and Sony Michel has had his moments in the last two games with runs of 25 and 26 yards while totaling 177.

The offensive line is still a work in progress in the sense they take their initial cue from center Ted Karras, who slid over from guard after David Andrews was lost for the season. Belichick thinks the unit as a whole is starting to gel, and that starts with Karras' growing comfort level.

"This year with David's situation, Ted's had the opportunity to play more and he's stepped in and played consistently like he really always has for us," Belichick noted on his weekly conference call. "So, we're very fortunate that we have him and have his experience. Ted's a smart player, he's strong, he can anchor the middle of the pocket and his communication with his teammates on the offensive line, which is critical for the center position to handle blocking schemes and protections and so forth, has been good."

New York Jets Run Defense

Even without Mosley, the Jets did well to stifle New England's running game in the first meeting and limited the Patriots to 68 yards on 27 carries and did not allow a play bigger than eight yards. Mosley was slated to do individual position drills Thursday to help determine his availability, which would be a huge boost to a defense that has shown flashes of being a solid unit in the four games he has missed with a groin injury.

“I’m hopeful for [Thursday] that he’ll be able to do individual [drills] and we’ll see how it goes,” Jets coach Adam Gase told the New York Post. “I think we’re just taking this minute to minute. At the end of the day, we want to make the right decision whatever we decide to do. This is going to be more than just me saying, ‘Hey, he looks good,’ and the trainers. I think this is going to be the full organization with C.J. involved as far as what’s best for him.”

The Jets are second in the league in allowing four or more rushing yards on first down at 31.2 percent, trailing only the Patriots (31.0).

Stats

NE

Team Rushing Statistics

Carries — 175 (5th)

Carries Per game — 29.2 (6th)

Rushing Yards — 609 (20th)

Rushing Yards Per Game — 101.5 (21st)

Average Yards Per Carry — 3.48 (28th)

Rushing Touchdowns — 9 (T-2nd)

Individual Rushing Statistics

Sony Michel -- 100 carries/348 yards/3.48 yards per carry/3 TDs

Rex Burkhead -- 24/112/4.67/1

James White -- 16/62/3.88/0

Brandon Bolden -- 12/45/3.75/2

Phillip Dorsett II -- 3/21/7.00/0

Julian Edelman -- 2/9/4.50/0

Antonio Brown -- 1/5/5.0/0

Tom Brady -- 14/3/0.21/3

James Develin -- 2/3/1.50/0

Josh Gordon -- 1/1/1.00/0

NY Jets

Team Rushing Defense (Opponent Offensive Rank)

Opponent Carries — 136 (20th)

Opponent Carries per game — 27.2 (12th)

Opponent Rushing Yards — 479 (25th)

Average Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game — 95.8 (20th)

Average Opponent Rushing Yards Per Carry — 3.52 (28th)

Opponent Rushing TDs — 7 (T-5th)

Individual Defensive Statistics

Neville Hewitt -- 21 solo tackles/13 assists/34 tackles/1.5 stuff/4 TFL

Darryl Roberts -- 27/4/31/0/1

Jamal Adams -- 22/7/29/2.5/2

Brian Poole -- 25/4/29/0.5/1

Blake Cashman -- 17/9/26/2/3

Marcus Maye -- 19/4/23/0/0

Trumaine Johnson -- 19/1/20/0/1

Leonard Williams -- 5/8/13/0.5/0

Steve McLendon -- 6/6/12/1/3

Tarell Basham -- 4 7/11/2/3

Kyle Phillips -- 6/5/11/2.5/2

Quinnen Williams -- 5/6/11/1/0

Folorunso Fatukasi -- 3/5/8/1.5/1

Jordan Jenkins -- 2/4/6/0.5/1

Nate Hairston -- 5/1/6/1/1

C.J. Mosley -- 4/2/6/0/0

Who has the Edge?

This is an area where the Jets gave the Patriots issues in the first meeting, though the problem was Brady simply decided to pick apart the Jets through the air after finding success in that route. Mosley's potential return, though, is like a tide that raises all boats since he is also the play-caller on defense.

Advantage: Push

New York Jets Running Offense
vs. New England Patriots Running Defense

New York Jets Running Offense

Bell has yet to have a breakout game since his arrival from Pittsburgh, but there have been some small signs of progress. He matched a season-best with a 13-yard run last week and was only dropped for one loss on his 14 carries. Darnold's effectiveness versus Dallas may cause a rethink about loading the box to stop Bell, but it also showed defenses still respect the running back based on the success Darnold had in play-action.

“Last week was the first time where we actually put something together where we looked like we can play-action pass and do some things and push the ball down the field a little bit,” Gase told New York Newsday on Wednesday. “We’re still in that weird stage of figuring out who we are. Once you kind of figure out who you are, commit to it."

New England Patriots Run Defense

Plain and simple, New England's defense has a chance to be historic this season. The Patriots defense has given up three touchdowns thus far, and the run defense -- save two big-yardage plays -- has been dominant. Including those two plays totaling 106 yards, New England is giving up 73.7 yards per game. Without them, it plummets to 56 per contest on 3.23 yards per carry.

Darnold presents a new variable for this game, as does the absence of suspended defensive lineman Michael Barnett. The Patriots were able to throw nine people into the box against Luke Falk knowing full well Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson can lock up their respective receivers, which contributed to them holding the Jets to 36 yards on 20 carries. Now, the matchup is a little more level.

Stats

NY Jets

Team Rushing Statistics

Carries — 104 (31st)

Carries Per game — 20.8 (27th)

Rushing Yards — 320 (31st)

Rushing Yards Per Game — 64.0 (30th)

Average Yards Per Carry — 3.08 (32nd)

Rushing Touchdowns — 2 (T-24th)

Individual Rushing Statistics

Le'Veon Bell -- 85 carries/256 yards/3.01 yards per carry/1 TDs

Ty Montgomery -- 9/31/3.44/0

Vyncint Smith -- 1/19/19.00/1

Bilal Powell -- 2/9/4.50/0

Jamison Crowder -- 1/4/4.00/0

Sam Darnold -- 6/1/0.17/0

NE

Team Rushing Defense (Opponent Offensive Rank)

Opponent Carries — 106 (32nd)

Opponent Carries per game — 17.7 (32nd)

Opponent Rushing Yards — 442 (27th)

Average Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game — 73.7 (30th)

Average Opponent Rushing Yards Per Carry — 4.17 (21st)

Opponent Rushing TDs — 2 (T-29th)

Individual Defensive Statistics

Jamie Collins Sr. -- 23 solo tackles/7 assists/30 tackles/2.5 stuff/6 TFL

Jason McCourty -- 22/5/27/0/0

Dont'a Hightower -- 17/6/23/2/4

Stephon Gilmore -- 17/5/22/0/0

Jonathan Jones -- 14/6/20/0/0

Danny Shelton -- 11/6/17/0/2

Patrick Chung -- 13/4/17/1/1

Lawrence Guy -- 11/6/17/0/0

Devin McCourty -- 14/3/17/0/0

Ja'Whaun Bentley -- 14/2/16/0/1

Kyle Van Noy -- 10/5/15/0.5/2

John Simon -- 10/5/15/1.5/2

Elandon Roberts -- 7/6/13/0.5/0

Adam Butler -- 6/5/11/1/3

Duron Harmon -- 6/3/9/1.5/1

J.C. Jackson -- 4/4/8/0/0

Chase Winovich -- 4/3/7/0/3

Deatrich Wise Jr. -- 6/0/6/0.5/1

Michael Bennett -- 4/1/5/0/3

Who has the Edge?

All it takes is one big play, but it is still difficult to see Bell finding that play against this defense. The offensive line has been in a state of flux all season, and that continued with Kelechi Osemele sidelined with a shoulder injury that could require season-ending surgery. New York has topped 70 rushing yards just once on the season, and even with Darnold to help shift the Patriots' defensive attention, this will be a tough task.

Advantage: New England Patriots

The Passing Game

New England Patriots Passing Offense
vs. New York Jets Passing Defense

New England Patriots Passing Offense

Brady continues to take the sporadic licking and keep on ticking. The win over the Giants was his fourth 300-yard game of the season, though it was also the second time in three games he failed to throw a touchdown pass.

Facing the Jets, though, has usually resulted in plenty of touchdowns and wins. Brady is 28-6 as a starter lifetime versus New York and has totaled 56 touchdown passes and 8,354 yards in those games.

Even with the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots have versatility offensively in different methods. James White continues to be one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league and has totaled 23 receptions for 149 yards in the last three games. Phillip Dorsett, who had a 25-yard touchdown versus the Jets, is expected to return after a one-game absence due to a hamstring injury.

“It was definitely good just to get a couple days of rest, but it feels even better to be back playing again,” Dorsett told NESN. “… We’re so trained to be going every day to the point where if we get a day or two days off, it can be too long. Sometimes, it’s like, ‘I want to get back to playing football.’ Especially me — the week I missed, I just want to get to playing. So it definitely feels good to get back out there.”

New York Jets Passing Defense

The Jets basically survived last week against the Cowboys by making just enough plays to win. New York has totaled just seven sacks on the season and has not recorded an interception in the last two games. New York gave up 150 yards after the catch in the first meeting between the teams and 17 first downs through the air.

Any success the Jets are going to have in this game starts with making Brady uncomfortable in the pocket. New York has not recorded more than two takedowns of Brady in the last eight meetings between the teams and has won just once in that span. It also has contributed to Brady throwing 18 touchdown passes against only two interceptions in that stretch.

Stats

NE

Team Passing Statistics

Passes Attempted — 233 (6th)

Passes Completed — 152 (5th)

Completion Percentage — 65.2 (15th)

Gross Passing Yards — 1,789 (5th)

Net Passing Yards – 1,709 (5th)

Net Passing Yards Per Game — 284.8 (5th)

Average Gain Per Pass Play — 7.00 (9th)

Yards Per Attempt — 7.68 (11th)

Yards Per Completion — 11.77 (9th)

Passing TDs — 10 (T-9th)

Interceptions — 4 (T-16th most)

Times Sacked — 11 (T-22nd most)

Passer Rating — 95.6 (13th)

Individual Passing

Tom Brady — 149 completions/228 attempts/65.4 completion percentage/1,743 yards/10 TDs/3 INT/97.5 passer rating

Julian Edelman -- 1/1/100.0/32/0/0/118.8

Jarrett Stidham -- 2/4/50.0/14/0/1/18.8

Individual Receiving

Julian Edelman -- 38 receptions/449 yards/11.8 yards per catch/2 TDs

James White -- 31/224/7.2/1

Josh Gordon -- 20/287/14.4/1

Phillip Dorsett II -- 15/197/13.1/3

Rex Burkhead -- 14/117/8.4/0

Jakobi Meyers -- 8/120/15.0/0

Ryan Izzo -- 6/114/19.0/1

Brandon Bolden -- 5/72/14.4/1

Sony Michel -- 5/59/11.8/0

Antonio Brown -- 4/56/14.0/1

Matt LaCosse -- 3/55/18.3/0

Gunner Olszewski -- 2/34/17.0/0

Jakob Johnson -- 1/5/5.0/0

NY Jets

Team Passing Defense Statistics (Opponent Offensive Rank)

Opponents’ Passes Attempted — 186 (25th)

Opponents’ Passes Completed — 118 (24th)

Opponents’ Completing Percentage — 63.4 (23rd)

Opponents’ Gross Passing Yards —1,365 (25th)

Opponents’ Net Passing Yards — 1,310 (24th)

Opponents’ Net Passing Yards Per Game — 262.0 (12th)

Opponents’ Yards Per Attempt — 7.34 (19th)

Opponents’ Yards Per Completion — 11.57 (15th)

Opponents’ Average Gain Per Pass Play — 6.79 (11th)

Opponents’ TD passes — 5 (T–26th)

Interceptions — 4 (T-19th)

Sacks — 7 (T-29th)

Opponents’ Passer Rating — 85.5 (25th)

Individual Defense Sacks and Quarterback Hurries

Neville Hewitt -- 2.0 sacks/9.0 yards/6 QBH

Jordan Jenkins -- 2.0/20.0/4

Steve McLendon -- 1.0/8.0/2

Tarell Basham -- 1.0/10.0/1

Blake Cashman -- 0.5/4.0/2

Bronson Kaufusi -- 0.5/4.0/1

Interceptions and Passes Broken Up

Jamal Adams --  1 INT/4 PBU

C.J. Mosley -- 1/2

Darryl Roberts -- 1/1

Neville Hewitt -- 1/2

Brian Poole -- 0/3

Marcus Maye -- 0/3

Who has the Edge?

Getting Dorsett back is a big deal for the Patriots because it balances the passing game vertically and allows Edelman to return to his primary strength of running shallow crossing routes out of the slot. The play-action mix with the Jets selling out to stop the run provides opportunities for chunk plays as well as get White into space in the flat.

Advantage: New England Patriots

New York Jets Passing Offense
vs. New England Patriots Passing Defense

New York Jets Passing Offense

So what does Darnold bring to the Jets offense, besides an NFL-caliber quarterback? Practically everything despite this being just his 16th career start. One important piece is a deft passing touch that was apparent both on Anderson's 92-yard touchdown catch but also this toss to Demaryius Thomas on a rub route.

Belichick also recognizes Darnold's game and what he will bring to this contest.

"He's shown good toughness last year and this year. Going back to the opener against Buffalo, and then yesterday against Dallas, he shows good toughness in the pocket and he's a quality player. It certainly makes a big difference having him on the field for them," Belichick said. "There's no question about that."

New England Patriots Passing Defense

Gilmore has been a shutdown corner this season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 18 of 41 passes for 225 yards while breaking up eight passes. He has been a nightmare matchup for Anderson, who has been limited to eight catches for 57 yards on 18 targets in the last three games.

“You know, definitely it’s a challenge, lot of respect for him, you know he’s a good corner,” Anderson told reporters. “He’s big. He has an advantage. He’s a very smart, experienced, savvy player.”

Gilmore and Jackson's lockdown skills have allowed the Patriots to get to the quarterback often. New England is second in the NFL with 25 sacks and held opposing teams to a minuscule 42.6 passer rating and record a league-high 14 interceptions. To put the passer rating in perspective, it is on pace to be the lowest since the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers held teams to a 48.4 passer rating.

Stats

NY Jets

Team Passing Statistics

Passes Attempted — 152 (31st)

Passes Completed — 101 (31st)

Completion Percentage — 66.4 (11th)

Gross Passing Yards — 932 (32nd)

Net Passing Yards – 780 (32nd)

Net Passing Yards Per Game — 156.0 (32nd)

Average Gain Per Pass Play — 4.41 (31st)

Yards Per Attempt — 6.13 (30th)

Yards Per Completion — 9.23 (31st)

Passing TDs — 3 (T-31st)

Interceptions — 4 (T-16th most)

Times Sacked — 25 (T-2nd most)

Passer Rating — 78.6 (28th)

Individual Passing

Sam Darnold — 51 completions/73 attempts/69.9 completion percentage/513 yards/3 TDs/1 INT/97.6 passer rating

Luke Falk -- 47/73/64.4/416/0/3/62.4

Trevor Siemian 3/6/50.0/3/0/0/56.3

Individual Receiving

Jamison Crowder -- 28 receptions/272 yards/9.7 yards per catch/0 TDs

Le'Veon Bell -- 28/169/6.0/1

Robby Anderson -- 16/256/16.0/1

Demaryius Thomas -- 9/108/12.0/0

Ryan Griffin -- 8/45/5.6/1

Ty Montgomery -- 6/32/5.3/0

Braxton Berrios -- 2/29/14.5/0

Josh Bellamy -- 2/20/10.0/0

Vyncint Smith -- 1/5/5.0/0

Quincy Enunwa -- 1/-4/-4.0/0

NE

Team Passing Defense Statistics (Opponent Offensive Rank)

Opponents’ Passes Attempted — 210 (T-11th)

Opponents’ Passes Completed — 112 (T-28th)

Opponents’ Completing Percentage — 53.3 (32nd)

Opponents’ Gross Passing Yards —1,123 (30th)

Opponents’ Net Passing Yards — 966 (30th)

Opponents’ Net Passing Yards Per Game — 161.0 (31st)

Opponents’ Yards Per Attempt — 5.35 (32nd)

Opponents’ Yards Per Completion — 10.03 (28th)

Opponents’ Average Gain Per Pass Play — 4.11 (32nd)

Opponents’ TD passes — 1 (32nd)

Interceptions — 14 (1st)

Sacks — 25 (2nd)

Opponents’ Passer Rating — 42.6 (32nd)

Individual Defense Sacks and Quarterback Hurries

Jamie Collins Sr. -- 4.5 sacks/34.5 yards/6 QBH

Chase Winovich -- 4.0/35/5

Kyle Van Noy -- 3.5/20.5/7

Adam Butler -- 2.5/12.0/3

Michael Bennett -- 2.5/22.5/4

Dont'a Hightower -- 2.0/13.5/5

Danny Shelton -- 2.0/14.0/4

John Simon -- 2.0/5.0/3

Deatrich Wise Jr. -- 1.0/0.0/6

Interceptions and Passes Broken Up

Devin McCourty -- 4 INTs/5 PBU

Jamie Collins Sr. -- 3/4

Stephon Gilmore -- 2/8

J.C. Jackson -- 2/3

Duron Harmon -- 1/3

Jason McCourty -- 1/4

John Simon -- 1/4

Jonathan Jones -- 0/5

Kyle Van Noy -- 0/3

Who has the Edge?

A potential blueprint for the Jets may be their Week 1 game versus Buffalo in which Jamison Crowder was involved early and often and finished with 14 catches but only 99 yards. In some ways, whatever Anderson gets off Gilmore is a bonus, though Darnold must at least throw his way to keep New England's defense honest. Crowder and Bell will be vital role players in the passing offense, and potentially tight end Chris Herndon if he makes his season debut.

Advantage: New England Patriots

Intangibles

New England Patriots

Despite suspending Bennett for this game, there has been nary a peep about a potential distraction for this game. Even Bennett made a contrite statement to ESPN following the announcement of the suspension and that, as they say, is that.

Ex-Jet kicker Mike Nugent has yet to be truly challenged in his first two games since replacing Stephen Gostkowski, making 8 of 9 PATs and 2 of 3 field goal attempts. Nugent did miss a 40-yarder against the Giants, which is also his longest attempt in the two games.

Jake Bailey continues to do effective double duty on punts and kickoffs, averaging 45.8 yards on 31 punts while placing 13 inside the opposing 20 and drilled 11 of 13 kickoffs for touchbacks. Gunner Olszewski has been a reliable punt returner, averaging 8.6 yards on 17 returns.

New York Jets

The pressure is off Gase with the Jets having recorded a win, but there needs to be a desire to avoid complacency and simply playing with house money because they're playing the Patriots. Darnold and the offense need to show another step of progress, which means getting Bell going. That means Darnold has to be effective, and that goes back to Gase's play-calling, which must be on point.

Sam Ficken has stabilized the kicking game since his arrival in Week 2 and delivered on his first real pressure kick last week, making a 38-yarder in the fourth quarter to create a needed eight-point lead. He also has been reliable on kickoffs, recording touchbacks on 9 of 11 kicks.

Lachlan Edwards has averaged 46.8 yards on 36 punts having been kept busy all season, and 12 of them have been inside the opponents' 20 without a touchback. Both Trenton Cannon and Vyncint Smith have shown promise on punt return duties, but getting something off Bailey will be a challenge.

Who has the Edge?

Until Belichick shuffles off into retirement, the edge in 99.99 percent of these matchups goes with the Patriots. And so it goes here. Ficken may gave the Jets some fighting power in the kicking game, but Bailey has been dependable when called upon to flip the field for New England.

Advantage: New England Patriots

Final Outlook

Even with the optimism surrounding the Jets and playing at home on a Monday night, the pick is still the Patriots -- especially if the line continues to stay on the low-side hook of a TD+FG combo at 9.5 like it is as of Thursday afternoon. Getting Dorsett back may be a bigger key for the Patriots covering than the Jets improving by Darnold's return because of how it balances New England's offense for Brady.

It should be a closer game in the sense the Jets will be competitive, but it also would not be surprising to see another 16 to 20-point final margin.

Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements

Not having Josh Gordon does affect New England's passing game, but some of that is mitigated by the return of Dorsett. Still, there is little depth at wide receiver beyond Edelman and Dorsett, and even second-string wide receiver Gunner Olszewski is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Also of note is the Patriots are also without their top two tight ends -- Ryan Izzo and Matt LaCosse. Veteran Ben Watson will be making his season debut in this game -- he served a four-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy -- and this will be the first game with the Patriots for the 38-year-old since 2009.

While the Patriots are trying to figure out who Brady will throw to, the Jets are shuffling their offensive line to give Darnold time to throw. Rookie Chuma Edoga is expected to start at left tackle with Kelvin Beachum sidelined, and Brandon Shell will flip to right tackle. Center Ryan Kalil could miss out with a shoulder injury, which would leave Jonotthan Harrison as a potential replacement.

Kelechi Osemele is doubtful to play with a shoulder injury, but he and the team have been at odds over the severity of the injury. Osemele believes the injury is too severe to play and sought a second opinion, while the Jets fined him for sitting out practice Saturday for conduct detrimental to the team.

The line has ticked higher to 10 points, and given the lengthy injury list at receiver and tight end for the Patriots, it is a very fine line given the Jets defense is expected to have Mosley available and be close to full strength.

Prediction: Patriots -9.5 (-105)

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

Additional Insiders' Best Bets

Full-game Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Again, just because the game should be more competitive does not mean an offensive slugfest will break out. The first meeting, for all intents and purposes, should have been a Patriots shutout had it not been for a muffed punt and a backup quarterback throwing a pick-six. Mosley's possible return can help the Jets limit New England's medium-range passing game where it can do significant damage, but the key here is the total itself.

It has spiked higher from the opening at 42, and even with Darnold, it is difficult to envision where the Jets are going to exceed the 14 points from the first game unless the defense scores a touchdown. If Darnold runs a clean offense without committing turnovers, though, there may not be enough chances for New England to post a high point total.

Prediction: UNDER 43.5 points (-115)

Full-game Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

You give a little and you take a little with this pick. On the plus side, the high-side hook on a flat touchdown total that should not come into play is a nice piece of insurance, and on the flip side, the high-side hook on a field goal spread given how thin the Patriots are at receiver and tight end provides a little bit of anxiety.

Still, there is plenty of confidence in the Patriots defense rising to the challenge as they have all season. And there should be enough offense through Edelman, Dorsett, Michel, and White to help New England keep the Jets at arm's length.

Prop Plays We Like

Jamison Crowder OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-120)

Sony Michel OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-114)

The hedge is Crowder will be targeted often with Anderson paired off with Gilmore most of the game, used similar to his Week 1 performance versus Buffalo. Also playing into this pick is the expectation tight end Chris Herndon will be sidelined, leaving Ryan Griffin as the starter.

The Michel pick is more dicey, with the expectation he will get his yards towards the end of the game as the Patriots try to kill the clock. He is trending up from the last two games, and the total is low enough where he is worth a play.

Prediction: Patriots -3.5/UNDER 49.5 points teaser (-110)

Half-time Side Bet

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Rating:

There is never a bad time to take the Patriots giving under a touchdown, and that is the play here. New England has a plus-75 point differential in the first half thus far and scored 20 or more points on three occasions.

The Jets have score 30 first-half points this season, but 21 of them came last week against a Cowboys defense that offered little in the way of in-game adjustments. New England will not provide Darnold such a luxury.

Prediction: Patriots -6 (-110)

Half-time Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The hook makes the under the play, with the feeling three touchdowns may be a bridge too far given New England's stout defense. There may not be many chunk-yardage plays available to either team, resulting in sustained drives that chew clock and potentially result in field goals.

Prediction: UNDER 21.5 points (-110)

Half-time Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

For starters, the Patriots have outscored opponents 53-7 in the first quarter this season, while the Jets have been outscored 33-13. Then there is the on-going struggles of New York to score on its first possession of the game, a streak that has reached 15 games since a field goal in Week 6 of last season versus Indianapolis. With the spread less than a field goal, the Patriots can even get away with allowing a field goal.

Prediction: Patriots -2.5 1st quarter (-110)
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Written By Chris Altruda

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is based in Chicago. Prior to joining our team here at Winners & Whiner, he worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Follow Chris daily right here at W&W and on Twitter at @AlTruda73. You won’t be disappointed.