Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3; 3-3 ATS: 4-2 O/U) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-4; 3-3 ATS: 5-1 O/U)
NFL Week Seven: Sunday, October 22, 2017 at 1:00pm EST
Line: Jacksonville -3
The Indianapolis Colts will collide with the Jacksonville Jaguars in a divisional clash Sunday afternoon from Lucas Oil Stadium. The Jaguars are coming off a 27-17 home loss to the Rams, and the Colts dropped a 36-21 decision to the Titans in their latest action. The Jaguars defeated the Colts by a 30-27 score in the first battle last season, and the Colts countered with a 24-20 home win in the second meeting.
Fournette Shines in Jaguars Loss to Rams
The Jacksonville Jaguars conceded 17 points in the first quarter in their 27-17 home loss to the L.A. Rams last week. Blake Bortles was shaky again in the loss, completing 23 of 35 passes for 241 yards with one touchdown against one interception. The 25-year old quarterback continues to be very inconsistent and has now recorded 1068 passing yards with an 8:5 TD to INT ratio. Bortles tossed three TD’s with no INT’s in two games against the Colts last year. Rookie running back Leonard Fournette was a bright spot again in the loss, racking up 130 yards on 21 carries. The 22-year old running back is having a spectacular rookie campaign, accumulating 596 rushing yards, good for second in the NFL. Fournette has rushed for over 100 yards three times this season. Jaguars leading receiver Marqise Lee had a big game in the air, bringing in a season-high 83 receiving yards. The 25-year old wide receiver is having a strong year, notching 291 yards on 20 receptions. The Jaguars running game led by Leonard Fournette continues to carry the offensive load, however, they will need Blake Bortles to be better going forward.
The Jaguars’ defense did not play poorly in their loss last week, as two of the Rams TD’s were scored on special teams. They held Goff to 124 passing yards and only one trip to the red zone. Calais Campbell recorded yet another two sacks and has now made eight on the season. Jacksonville has yet to win back-to-back games this season, and are in a first-place tie with Houston in the AFC South.
Colts Defense Struggles Late in Loss to Titans
The Indianapolis Colts only managed one offensive touchdown in their rough 36-21 road loss to the Titans on Monday night. Jacoby Brissett was not very productive, connecting on 21 of 37 passes for 212 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. The 23-year old quarterback has not been able to do any big damage, recording 1209 passing yards with a 3:3 TD to INT ratio in five games. Andrew Luck is still injured and it is unlikely he will suit up in this one. Frank Gore made the most of his 10 carries, collecting a total of 49 yards. The 34-year old running back is having a mediocre season, rushing for 288 yards on the season. Colts’ leading receiver T.Y. Hilton was very quiet in the loss, making only one catch for 19 yards. The sixth-year receiver has now tallied 485 receiving yards on the season. The Colts offense struggled to score points again last week, which will be the case until Andrew Luck returns to action.
The Colts defense fell apart in the fourth quarter last week, conceding 21 points, and surrendered a total of 473 total yards. Their pass defense has been awful and they really struggled against the run last week. Indianapolis is now in sole possession of last place in the AFC South and is 2-1 at home this season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are:
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Colts.
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
The Indianapolis Colts are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC opponents.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
I am siding with the Jaguars in this matchup. The Colts feature the worst defense in the NFL, allowing 32.5 points per game. They just surrendered 168 rushing yards to the Titans last week and will be up against the dangerous Leonard Fournette who has already recorded 596 rushing yards on the season, and the Jaguars have shown they have the ability to score big points. Furthermore, the Colts offense has not been productive, and Jacoby Brissett has only tossed three touchdowns in his five games. They Jaguars pass defense has been tremendous, so the Colts will have a tough time in the air, and they also possess a subpar running game, so I can’t see them scoring many points.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts have struggled against the stronger defensive teams they have faced this season, and the Jaguars feature a stifling defense. I expect the Colts to struggle to score points against the Jaguars tough pass defense, and the under is 6-1 in the Colts last seven games after recording less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. While I do expect Jacksonville to run the ball with success, their passing game has been weak, and the under is 6-0 in their last six games in Indianapolis.