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New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers,
10-22-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#465 New England
Patriots
#466 Green Bay
Packers

Sunday, October 22, 2017 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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New Orleans Saints (3-2 SU, 3-2-0 PS, 4-1-0 O/U) vs Green Bay Packers (4-2 SU, 3-3-0 PS, 4-2-0 O/U)

When: 1:00 PM EDT, Sunday, October 22, 2017

Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin

Lines: New Orleans -6

Total: 48

NFL action on Sunday afternoon and the New Orleans Saints will travel to Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin to rumble with the Green Bay Packers in what could be a very fun game. The Saints come into this game off a 52-38 home win over the Lions, while the Packers are off a tough 23-10 loss at Minnesota, in a game that they may have lost Aaron Rodgers for the season. These teams last met in 2014 and the Saints won that game at home by a score of 44-23.  

Saints Win Shootout Against The Lions

Fun, high-scoring games are nothing new to the Saints as they have a high-powered offense and usually play no defense. Well, this past Sunday they play a college-like game as they beat the Lions by a score of 52-38. The Saints jumped out to a 31-10 lead at the half and then they had a 45 -10 lead midway through the 3rd period, but the Lions made a furious comeback and pulled to within seven points before the Saints scored a late TD on an INT return to seal the deal. It was their 2nd INT return for a TD in the game and they also had a fumble recovery in the endzone for a TD as well. Despite putting up 52 points in the game, the Saints had just 379 yards of total offense. More shocking is the fact that they ran for 193 yards and threw for 186 yards. Drew Brees hit 21 of 31 passes for 186 yards with two TDs and an INT. Brees has thrown for 1321 yards with 10 TDS and two INTs on the year. Brees has a passer rating of 103.2 on the year, which is 5th in the league. In his career, he is 3-3 against the Packers and has thrown for 2215 yards with 17 TDs and just two INTs in those games. Mark Ingram had a big game on the ground as he ran for 114 yards and two TDs. The defense allowed Stafford to throw for 312 yards, but they did sack him five times and picked off three passes.    

The Saints have been very good on offense so far this year as they come in ranked 7th in the league in total offense (372.5 ypg), 5th in passing (258.4 ypg), 14th in rushing (113.8 ypg) and 4th in scoring at 29.0 ppg. On defense, they have not been good at all as they come in ranked 26th in total yards allowed (369.2 ypg), 28th against the pass (268.4 ypg) and 11th vs the run (100.8 ypg), while allowing 23.2 ppg, which is 21st in the league.

Rodgers Could Be Out For The Season

The Green Bay Packers are in a battle for the NFC South Title and they were the favorites to reach the Super Bowl coming into the year, but now they may have to try and get there without the services of Aaron Rodgers, who was lost in their 23-10 loss to the Vikings this past week and he may now be out for the rest of the season with a broken collarbone. That is a huge blow to this team and it means that the offense will now be in the hands of Brett Hundley. He came into the game against the Vikings and hit 18 of 33 passes for 157 yards with a TD and three INTs. Hundley has thrown for 174 yards with a TD and four INTs in his career. The offense did not look good with him in there against the Vikings and they put up just 227 yards of total offense in the loss. The Packers have no running game and they could really use one to take the pressure off the young QB. This is a team that is in real trouble, especially since they are a team that relies so much on Rodgers. The defense did not have a great game against the Vikings as they allowed 351 yards of total offense and allowed Case Keenum to throw for 239 yards on them, while not sacking him one. If the Packers don’t get pressure on Brees in this one then he will take them apart. The Packers have some weapons on offense, but can Hundley get them the ball? That will be the question moving forward.    

Green Bay enters this contest ranked 21st in the league in total offense (318.3 ypg), 15th in passing (230.0 ypg), 26th in rushing (88.3 ypg) and 10th in scoring at 24.5 ppg. On defense, they come in ranked 14th in total yards allowed (326.2 ypg), 11th against the pass (206.3 ypg) and 24th vs the run (119.8 ypg), while allowing just 22.5 ppg, which is 18th in the league.

Trends

New Orleans is:

  • 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games
  • 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in October

Green Bay is:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss
  • The Dog is 1-5 ATS the last six games in this series

The Packers are in trouble as they are now without Aaron Rodgers and they have no running game to help out Brett Hundley, but they are taking on a bad defense, which does give them hope for this game. I don’t think it will matter as the Packers will not have enough offense to stay in this game until the end. Hundley threw three ints last week and without a running game, he will have to throw plenty in this game. The Packers had their issues with Case Keenum last week and will have even more issues with Brees and company in this one, especially considering the fact that the Saints have a decent ground attack to go along with their passing game. Look for the Saints to win and cover this game.

Pick: New Orleans -6

The Saints have a lot of offense and no defense, but they will be taking on a Green Bay offense that will not be nearly as strong now that they have Brett Hundley at QB and not Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have no run game, but they will need to use their ground game as they look to take the pressure off of Hundley and that will eat up some plenty of clock, plus it will also keep the high-powered Saints on the sidelines. The Saints have also discovered that they have a run game and they will use that plenty as well. I look for an easy Saints win, but I also look for for the game to go Under the total.   

Pick: Under 48

Confidence: 3

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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