New York Jets (3-3; 4-2 ATS: 2-4 O/U) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-2; 3-2 ATS; 0-5 O/U)
NFL Week Seven: Sunday, October 22, 2017 at 1:00pm EST
Line: Miami -3
The Miami Dolphins will take on the New York Jets in an AFC East battle Sunday afternoon from Hard Rock Stadium. The Jets are coming off a 24-17 home loss to the Patriots, and the Dolphins recorded a big 20-17 comeback win over the Falcons last weekend. The Jets defeated the Dolphins by a 20-6 score in week three.
Jets Can’t Hold Large Early Lead in Loss to Patriots
The New York Jets jumped out to an early 14-0 lead but could not hold on in their 24-17 home loss to the Patriots last week. Josh McCown got off a hot start and finished with a season-high 354 passing yards with two touchdowns against two interceptions. The 38-year old quarterback will not put up big numbers but has played reasonably well, recording 1374 passing yards with a 7:6 TD to INT Ratio. McCown tallied 249 passing yards with one TD in the win over Miami in week three. Jets receiver Jermaine Kearse had his best game of the season, bringing in four catches for a season-high 79 yards. The 27-year old wide receiver now leads the Jets with 299 receiving yards. The Jets running game was only able to tally 74 rushing yards last week, with Elijah McGuire recording 22 rushing yards. The rookie running back has collected 198 rushing yards on the season and is avenging a solid 5.2 yards per carry. The Jets failed to take advantage of the Patriots terrible pass defense and continue to struggle to score points.
The Jets defense played reasonably well in the loss considering they were up against Tom Brady. They did allow 375 total yards, however, they did enough to keep their offense in the game. New York is having a tough time stopping the run this season, and have been mediocre against the pass. The Jets had their three game winning streak snapped in the loss to the Patriots.
Dolphins Mount Stunning Comeback Over Falcons
The Miami Dolphins enter this one full of momentum after storming back from a 17-point halftime deficit to defeat the Atlanta Falcons 20-17 last week. Jay Cutler did not have a great game, completing 19 of 33 passes for 151 yards with two touchdowns against one interception. The 34-year old quarterback is having a mediocre season, recording 857 passing yards with a 5:4 TD to INT ratio in five games. Cutler collected 220 yards with one TD and one INT in the loss to the Jets in week three. The big performer in the Dolphins win was Jay Ajayi who rushed for 130 yards on 26 carries, good for an average of five yards per rush. The 24-year old running back has been inconsistent in a few games this season, however overall he has been solid, accumulating 391 rushing yards. Jarvis Landry made his presence felt in the win, making eight catches for 62 yards and one touchdown. The fourth-year receiver now leads the Dolphins with 272 receiving yards. DeVante Parker missed last week’s contest with an ankle injury and is questionable for this one. Miami’s offense showed great poise last week, however, they are still only averaging 12.2 points per game.
The Dolphins defense was spectacular in the win last week, holding Matt Ryan to only one passing touchdown, and only one trip to the red zone. Cameron Wake made one of two sacks and has now picked up 3.5 sacks on the season. Miami’s defense has no doubt been the strength of this team which was evident in their latest two wins.
The New York Jets are:
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
- 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
The Miami Dolphins are:
- 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
- the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the Jets and Dolphins.
I am taking Miami in this matchup. The Dolphins should come into this one full of confidence after their big win over the Falcons last week. I expect Jay Ajayi to have a much better game than his week three performance against the Jets, especially considering New York is allowing an average of 139 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, the Jets running game will have trouble against the Dolphins strong rush defense that is only allowing an average of 80 rushing yards per game. Overall, I don’t see the Jets scoring enough points, and believe the Dolphins are the play in this one with this smaller spread.
Pick: Miami Dolphins
The Jets are a very low scoring team and the Dolphins are also struggling to score points with consistency. I expect the Dolphins strong defense to silence the Jets offense, and the under is 4-1 in the Jets last five road games. While I do expect Miami to have success on the ground, they won’t score big points, and the under is 5-0 in their last five games. This total might seem low however these are two of the lowest scoring teams in the NFL facing off.