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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Panthers vs. 49ers Prediction

Sunday, October 27, 2019 at 4:05pm EDT
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Sunday, October 27, 2019 at 11:11am EDT

Introduction

National Football League action on Sunday afternoon and the NFC South will square off with the NFC West as the Carolina Panthers tangle with the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in San Francisco, California. These teams last met back in 2017 and the Panthers won that game on the road by a score of 23-3.

Cam Newton has been out since after game two. The Panthers were 0-2 in his games played. In steps, Kyle Allen and now the Panthers have won their last four games in a row. Will Cam Newton regain his job once he is healthy. That is a discussion for another time. Right now, all that is important to the Panthers is that they are 4-2 on the year and in 2nd place in the NFC South. The Panthers are off a 37-26 win over Tampa Bay in a game that was played in London. Allen was 20/32 for 227 yards with two TDs and no INTs in the game. The problem here is that he will be facing a much tougher defense. Can Allen unlock the key to the San Francisco defense? We shall see.

The San Francisco 49ers are one of two teams in the NFL that have yet to taste defeat. The other team is the New England Patriots, who will be playing on Monday night. The Niners are off a lackluster 9-0 win over Washington on the road. The game was played in heavy rain and all the Niners got was three field goals and that was against a pretty bad defense. They will be facing a tougher defense in this one and they will need to score more as the Panthers have been a hot offensive team.  The Niners have the 2nd best scoring defense in the league, allowing just 10.7 ppg and that will be tested. Can the Niners avoid losing their first game of the year? You'll have to check back to find out.

Carolina Panthers Review

The Carolina Panthers has a shaky start to their year as they lost their first two games. Then Cam Newton got hurt and Kyle Allen took over at QB. The Panthers haven’t lost since as they have won their last four games in a row. Their last game was over in London and they beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a score of 37-26 in that game. Carolina has now averaged 31.3 ppg with Allen under center, compared to averaging just 20.5 ppg when Newton was calling the shots. Will Came Newton get his job back when he is fully healthy. That remains to be seen.

The important part for the Panthers right now is that they are 4-2 on the year and they are well-rested as they look to hand the Niners their first loss of the year. The defense has allowed 26.5 ppg in their last two games overall, but just 15 ppg in their two true road games this year.  Despite beating the Bucs by 11 points, the Panthers were outgained by 129 yards in the game. Kyle Allen threw for 227 yards with two TDs and no INTs while Christian McCaffery struggled, rushing for just 31 yards and a TD. The defense allowed Winston to throw for 400 yards, but they also picked off five of his passes and sacked him seven times. That is how you win a game by 11 points despite being outgained by 129 yards. Can the defense step up here as well? We shall see.

San Francisco 49ers Review

The San Francisco 49ers enter this game at 6-0 and they are just one of two remaining undefeated teams in the league. The other team is the Patriots. Big surprise there. San Fran is off a lackluster 9-0 road win over the Washington Redskins but we do note that the game was played in a monsoon. The Niners held the Skins to just 154 yards of total offense while putting up just 283 yards of their own. Garoppolo was 12/21 for 151 yards and an INT. Not his best effort so he will be looking to get back on track here. Tevin Coleman led the way on the ground with 62 yards.

The ground game has been their bread and butter as they rank 2nd in the league in rushing so far. The Niners have been solid on offense overall, but the best defense they have played has been Pittsburgh’s which currently ranks 14th in the league in points allowed at 21.8 ppg. Four of the defenses they have faced are 21st or worse in points allowed.  The defense has played very well for the Niners overall, but we also note that they haven’t played the best offenses in the league so far. San Fran has faced the Buccaneers and Rams, but they have also faced the Steelers, Bengals, Browns, and Redskins and those teams do not have good offenses at all. Can the Niners keep their perfect season alive? You’ll have to read on to find out.  

The Running Game

Carolina Panthers Running Offense
vs. 49ers Running Defense

Carolina Panthers Running Offense

The Panthers have a very solid running game, which has been led by Christian McCaffrey. He did have just 31 yards last week but was facing a Tampa Bay team that has been stout against the run this year. Despite the bad game, he has still rumbled for 618 yards on the season, which is 3rd in the league behind Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook. McCaffrey has nine total TDs on the year, which ties him for tops in the league with Aaron Jones of Green Bay. 

McCaffery is the extent of their ground game as Reggie Bonnafon is 2nd on the team with just 85 yards, while Curtis Samuel is 3rd with 36. The Panthers will look to get that ground game going in this one as it will help take the pressure off of Kyle Allen. Carolina runs the ball a lot and they will do so here as well, but we do note that they are facing the 8th best run defense in this league. This should be a good battle. 

49ers Run Defense

The Niners have had a solid run defense in the early going as they are 8th in the league, allowing just 90.0 ypg so far. Despite that, we must note that five of the teams San Francisco has faced are currently ranked 21st or worse in rushing. This will be by far the best ground attack that the Niners have faced in the early going and if they can’t stop McCaffrey and company, then Allen could have a big game throwing the ball. 

The San Fran front wall will be tested in this one and they did allow the Redskins just 50 yards rushing last week, but we note that the Skins are 24th in the league at 84.7 ypg, plus that game was played on a very sloppy field. It will be interesting to see if the Niners can slow down a much better rushing attack in this one. 

Stats

Panthers:

  • 17th in run play percentage (40.78 percent)
  • 17th in rushing attempts per game (26.2)
  • 9th in rushing yards per game (129.5)
  • 5th in yards per attempt (4.9)
  • 23rd in rushing first downs per game (4.8)

San Francisco:

  • 20th in the percentage of run plays against (41.82)
  • 6th in run plays per game against (22.2)
  • 8th in rushing yards allowed per game (90.0)
  • 12th in opposing yards per attempt (4.1)
  • 11th in rushing first downs per game against (5.2)

Who has the Edge?

The Niners have been solid against the run this year, but they have not faced an attack as good as this one. Five of the six teams they have faced are 21st or worse in rushing and the Panthers are 9th. I feel that the Panthers have the edge here. They are rushing for 139.5 ypg and Christian McCaffrey will bounce back from his bad game against the Bucs last week. He is 3rd in the league in rushing and he will have a good game in this one.  

Advantage: Carolina Panthers

49ers Running Offense
vs. Carolina Panthers Running Defense

49ers Running Offense

The 49ers have the 2nd best ground attack in the league as they have piled up 172.7 ypg on the ground so far. That is a huge number and they will need to run the ball successfully in this one as it will help keep a strong Carolina pass rush from teeing off on Garoppolo. Matt Breida leads the team in rushing with 411 yards, but he has been dealing with injuries the last two weeks and has just 71 yards rushing combined in those games. 

Tevin Coleman has picked up the slack of late and he led them in rushing with 62 yards last week against the Redskins. Raheem Mostert is 2nd on the team in rushing with 249 yards, while Coleman is 3rd with 227. This is a deep RB corps, but it could be without Mostert, who is listed as questionable. Breida has been listed as probable and is expected to start in this one.

Carolina Panthers Run Defense

The Panthers have not been great against the run so far as they are 23rd in the league, giving up 119 ypg. That could be a problem as they are about to face the 2nd best ground attack in the league. The Panthers have been slightly better of late as they have allowed just 109 ypg on the ground over their last three games, but we note that they have allowed 4.9 yards per rush over that stretch of games. 

If the Panthers can’t stop the run in this game then Jimmy Garoppolo could have a big game throwing the ball. Carolina is 23rd in yards per attempt allowed at 4.7 but the Niners are rather average at 4.4 yards per rush so far. Can the Hurricanes stop this powerful ground attack? Keep reading to find out.

Stats

San Francisco:

  • 1st in run play percentage (57.07 percent)
  • 1st in rushing attempts per game (39.0)
  • 2nd in rushing yards per game (172.7)
  • 12th in yards per attempt (4.4)
  • 2nd in rushing first downs per game (8.8)

Carolina:

  • 7th in the percentage of run plays against (36.36
  • 16th in run plays per game against (25.3)
  • 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game (119.0)
  • 23rd in opposing yards per attempt (4.7)
  • 28th in rushing first downs per game against (7.3

Who has the Edge?

The Niners have a clear advantage in this section. They have the 2nd best ground attack in the league and the Panthers are 23rd against the run. Matt Breida is healthy and ready to go for this one and Tevin Coleman gives them a strong one-two punch in the backfield. The Niners run the ball a lot and they will wear down the smaller Carolina front line as the game goes on. The Panthers have a quick front wall, but it is not very big and the Niners have a very good offensive line. I look for the Niners ground game to have a solid showing in this one.

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers

The Passing Game

Carolina Panthers Passing Offense
vs. 49ers Passing Defense

Carolina Panthers Passing Offense

The Panthers have been running the ball better than throwing it this year, but they have been far better with Kyle Allen calling the shots over Cam Newton. He has breathed life in this offense and he has thrown for 901 yards with seven TDs and no INTs in his four games so far. Dating back to last year, he now has nine TDs and no INTs in his career. His 106.6 QBR currently has him ranked 4th in the nation in that department. 

Christian McCaffrey has been strong on the ground so far, but he is also 2nd on the team in receiving with 305 yards. The Panthers need to continue to get the ball in his hands any way that they can. DJ Moore leads the team in receiving with 425 yards while Curtis Samuel is 3rd with 297 yards and TE Greg Olsen is 4th with 278. There are plenty of weapons on this offense, but can they crack what has been a very solid San Francisco defense? That remains to be seen. 

49ers Passing Defense

The San Francisco defense has been very strong against the pass as they are 2nd in that department, allowing just 133.5 ypg through the air so far. The Niners have faced a couple of passing games that are in the top 10 (Tampa Bay & LA Rams) plus Cincinnati’s which is 12th so it is not like they are facing weak passing games. The anthers do not have a good passing game, but it could have a good showing if the Panthers are able to run the ball. The Niners will have their secondary tested in this one.

The Niners have grabbed seven INTs this year and they are 3rd in the league in sacks per game at 3.3. Nick Bosa leads the team in sacks with 4.0 while Arik Armstead is 2nd with 3.5. Richard Sherman is one of the best defensive backs in the league and he has two INts so far with one of them being returned for a TD. He also leads the team in passes defended with six. This is a very tough pass defense. 

Stats

Panthers:

  • 14th in pass attempts per game (35.3)
  • 22nd in passing yards per game (223.5)
  • 26th in completion percentage (61.32)
  • 24th in yards per pass attempt (6.3)
  • 19th in yards per pass completion (10.3)
  • Tied For 23rd in TD passes (7)
  • Tied for 3rd in INT thrown (1)
  • 17th in passer rating (91.2)

San Francisco:

  • 2nd in pass attempts against per game (27.5)
  • 1st in passing yards per game allowed (133.5)
  • 2nd in completion percentage allowed (55.15)
  • 2nd in yards per pass attempt (4.9)
  • 2nd in yards per pass completion (8.8)
  • Tied for 3rd in TD passes allowed (5)
  • 4th in INT (7)
  • 3rd in sacks per game (3.3)
  • 2nd in passer rating allowed (64.6)

Who has the Edge?

I have to give the Niners the edge in this spot. They have allowed just 133.5 ypg through the air so far and as I stated above, three of the passing games that they have faced are ranked 12th or better, while a 4th is ranked 16th. They have not just faced the dregs of the league in terms of passing. They will be facing a weak passing game in this one, even though it has been far better with Kyle Allen under center rather than Cam Newton. All the stats in this category stacks up on the side of the Niners and that is why I give them the edge here. 

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers

49ers Passing Offense
vs. Carolina Panthers Passing Defense

49ers Passing Offense

The Niners have the 2nd best ground game in the league, but they are 25th in the league in passing. They have attempted the 2nd fewest passes per game in the league and why would they throw the ball a lot when they are rushing for over 170 yards per game. The Niners have been successful when they do pass the ball as they are 7th in the league in pass par attempt and 7th in completion percentage, but we also note that they have tossed six INTs so far and are just 18th in passer rating at 91.1. 

Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for 1314 yards with seven TDs but he also has those six INTs. TE George Kittle leads the team in receiving with 376 yards, but we note that he is listed as questionable. Marquise Goodwin is 2nd on the team with 181, but he is also listed as questionable. If the Niners can’t run the ball in this one, then they could be in trouble with a beat-up WR corps.

Carolina Panthers Passing Defense

Teams have thrown the ball a ton against the Panthers this year, but teams are putting up just 225 ypg against them, which is 7th in the league. This is a very good pass defense that leads the league in sacks per game at 4.5, is 4th in yards per attempt at 5.6 and 4th in passer rating against at 73.2. The Panthers have allowed seven TD passes so far, but they have picked off nine passes, which is 2nd in the league. That could be key here as Garoppolo is prone to tossing picks. 

Luke Kuechly doesn’t have a sack yet, but he is 2nd on the team in tackles, has an INT and has five passes defended. Mario Addison leads the team in sacks with 6.5, while James Bradberry leads them in INTs with three and he also leads the team in passes defended with nine. This defense has playmakers all over it, especially when they are facing the pace.  

Stats

San Francisco:

  • 31st in pass attempts per game (28.0)
  • 25th in passing yards per game (214.5)
  • 7th in completion percentage (68.45)
  • 7th in yards per pass attempt (7.7)
  • 12th in yards per pass completion (11.2)
  • Tied For 23rd in TD passes (7)
  • 21st in INT thrown (6)
  • 18th in passer rating (91.1)

Carolina:

  • 30th in pass attempts against (39.8)
  • 7th in passing yards per game allowed (225.0)
  • 8th in completion percentage allowed (61.09)
  • 4th in yards per pass attempt (5.6)
  • 5th in yards per pass completion (9.2)
  • 11th in TD passes allowed (7)
  • 2nd in INT (9)
  • 1st in sacks per game (4.5)
  • 4th in passer rating allowed (73.2)

Who has the Edge?

I will be giving the edge to the Panthers in this category. They have one of the better overall pass defenses in the league. The Panthers can get pressure on the QB and they are 2nd in the league with nine INTs. That will be key here as Garroppolo has thrown six INTs to just seven TDs. The Panthers will be able to get that pressure on Garoppolo and force him into mistakes in this one. The Niners are also banged up a bit in their WR corps and they don’t really have depth at that position, plus TE Greg Kittle is listed as questionable as well. All the numbers line up for the Panthers to have a strong showing in this category. 

Advantage: Carolina Panthers

Intangibles

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers come in at a perfect 2-0 on the road, so playing away from home is not an issue for them, at the moment. Carolina has done well within the turnover department as they are +1 in turnover margin per game, which is 3rd in the league. That number goes to +2.7 over their last three games. The Panthers are also the least penalized team in the league at 5.2 penalties per games. We also note that the Panthers are 3rd in the league in yards per point at 12.8. Carolina has looked better with Kyle Allen under center than they did with Newton and that is something to keep an eye on again. 

Now for a few numbers on the downside. The Panthers are 23rd in the league in 3rd down conversions at 34.21% and 19th in yards per play at 5.5. The Panthers have had some issues in the kicking game as they have converted on just 72.2% of their field goal attempts, which is 24th in the league. Lastly, we note that the Panthers are off a bye week, so they will be rested in this one .

49ers

The 49ers have gone 2-0 here at home for the year and they are still a perfect 6-0 on the year overall. San Fran is one of two teams that are still undefeated, with the other team being the Patriots. The one area that the Niners have struggled is their kicking game. Robbie Gould has hit just 12 of 19 field-goal attempts, which puts the San Fran kicking game at 28th in the league. They are also 25th in giveaways per game at 1.8. 

On the plus side, the Niners are 11th in turnover margin per game at +0.3, 4th in penalties against per game at just 5.8, 2nd in opponent yards per point at +21 and 2nd in the league in defensive yards per play at 4.2. San Fran did not look good last week, but they were playing in a monsoon. It will be interesting to see if they can shake that performance off.

Who has the Edge?

I feel that the intangibles will go to the Panthers.  Both teams do some extra good things and both do some extra bad things. Carolina has done very well in the turnover department but the Niners have strong yards per point numbers and both teams have been disciplined as they are two of the least penalized teams in the league. The big edge here is rest as the Panthers are off a bye week, while the Niners played a week ago, plus Carolina is a bit better in the kicking department. I give the Panthers the edge in this department.

Advantage: Carolina Panthers

Final Outlook

The Niners did not play well last week against the Redskins, but they were also playing that game in a monsoon. Still, I feel that this game will be decided by three points or less and that has me taking the side of the Panthers. They have won all four games with Kyle Allen at QB and Christian McCaffery has been a beast in the early part of the year. The Niners have a strong defense, but I feel that Carolina will still score enough to keep this one close. 

The Niners have been very solid on offense this year, but the Carolina defense has been playing well of late. San Francisco has not played the toughest of defenses so far as the best defense they have faced was Pittsburgh’s, which is currently 14th in the league in points allowed at 21.8 ppg. Four of the defenses they have faced are 21st or worse in points allowed. The Panthers are 15th in points allowed overall, but they have allowed just 15 ppg in their true road games so far. 

I like the turnover margin that the Panthers have had of late and they are the best sack team in the league thus far. They will get pressure on Garoppolo just enough to make him uncomfortable. The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in Week eight and 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record while the Niners have gone 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. the NFC and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Take the Panthers to keep this game close.

Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements

The Niners have gone from -6 down to -4.5 and that is consistent with the fact that the Panthers have grabbed 63% of the bets. 

Carolina’s Injury Report

Out: QB Cam Newton, LB Christian Miller, and OT Greg Little

San Francisco’s Injury Report

Questionable: TE Levine Toilolo, RB Raheem Mostert, and WR Marquise Goodwin

Doubtful: OT Joe Staley

Out: DB Ahkello Witherspoon, OT Mike McGlinchey, and FB Kyle Juszczyk

Weather: Sunny and windy with temps around 70.

Prediction: Carolina +6

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

Additional Insiders' Best Bets

Full-game Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I am going to take the Over in this game. The Niners’ offense is not as bad as it looked last week as they were playing that game in a driving rainstorm. That game was also on the road and the Niners have averaged 441 ypg and 27.5 ppg in their two home games thus far. I realize that the Panthers have played well on defense, especially their two true road games, but they have allowed 26.5 ppg in their last two games overall and I expect the Niners to get their fair share of points in this one. 

The Panthers averaged just 20.5 ppg in their first two games, which had Cam Newton as QB. Since Kyle Allen has taken over they have averaged 31.3 ppg, which includes an average of 30.3 ppg in their three games away from home over that stretch. This offense is playing with a ton of confidence right now and they are well rested while the Niners defense could be a bit turned after playing in a driving rainstorm last week. The defenses have been solid for both teams overall, but I see the offenses taking center stage in this one. 

Trends of note:

The Over is 4-1 in Carolina’s last 5 vs. the NFC.

The Over is 12-3 in Carolina’s last 15 games following an ATS win

The Over is 18-8 in Carolina’s last 26 games in October

The Over is 7-3 in San Francisco’s last 10 vs. a team with a winning record

The Over is 11-5 the last 16 games in this series. 

Prediction: Over 42

Full-game Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The 49ers are mainly a rushing team. They rank 31st in the league in pass attempts per game and I will see them rushing a lot against a Carolina defense that is not all that good against the run. I am aware that the Panthers have allowed 24.3 completions per game but they have also played many teams that throw the ball a lot. The Niners do not do this and we note that the Panthers are 8th in pass completion percentage at just 61.1%. I see Garappolo coming in just under this number.

Prediction: Jimmy Garoppolo Under 18.5 Completions

Half-time Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I like the Panthers to keep this game close and I would not be surprised to see them win the game outright. The Niners have been strong on defense in the first half but the Panthers have averaged 12.3 ppg in the first half this year overall, including 16.0 ppg in the first half over their last three games. I can see the Panthers hanging up at least 10 points through the first 30 minutes of this one.

Prediction: Panthers Over 9 (First Half)

Half-time Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I like the game to be higher scoring than expected by some and I feel that we will see plenty in the first half. the Panthers have been a hot offensive team of late and they have averaged 16.0 ppg in the first half over their last three games. The Niners have averaged 10.1 ppg in the first half overall, including 12.0 pg in their last three at home. Look for the scoring to start early in this one as we get at least 24 first-half points from these teams.

Prediction: Over 21

Half-time Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Let's continue with the theme of seeing plenty of scoring in the first half of this one. I expect it to start early and within the first seven minutes of the game. One of the teams will take the ball on their first drie and not at least a FG.

Prediction: Yes There Will Be A Score In The First Seven Minutes
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.